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中国能源转型展望2024

电气设备2024-05-12Remi Eriksen、Ditlev Engel、Ulrike HaugenDNV章***

AI智能总结

Executive Summary

The Chinese energy transition aims to achieve energy independence, with a primary focus on energy conservation, energy switching, and the expansion of domestic energy supply capabilities. While the power sector leads in replacing coal with domestically sourced renewable energy by 2050, oil and gas usage continues to rely on imports. By 2050, China's energy use peaks by 2030 and reduces by 20%, driven by electrification and energy efficiency improvements, thanks to demographic shifts.

China is projected to become the second-largest region in terms of final energy demand by 2050, after surpassing Europe and North America. Energy efficiency improvement is a key part of Chinese policy, aiming for a reduction in energy intensity by 33% by 2035 and further to 2.2 MJ/USD by 2050. The transport sector anticipates a modest increase to 75% efficiency by 2050.

China's energy use will peak by 2030, followed by a significant reduction by 2050, primarily driven by electrification and efficiency initiatives. Demographic shifts, including a projected population decrease of 100 million by mid-century, will also contribute to this decline.

China aims to reduce carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 65% from 2005 levels by 2030, with emissions likely to peak by 2026. By 2050, China's emissions share is projected to drop to 22% of the global total.

China plans to more than quintuple its renewable energy installations by 2050, with solar and wind each contributing about 38% of electricity generation by mid-century. Sustained cost reductions due to learning effects will make solar and wind the cheapest power sources in 2050.

China's net-zero trajectory outlined in DNV's report projects that China's cumulative emissions could be reduced by 113 GtCO2 compared to expectations, significantly aiding global efforts to reach net zero by 2050.

In summary, China's energy transition involves achieving energy independence, reducing energy use and emissions through electrification and efficiency improvements, increasing renewable energy installations, and supporting global efforts towards net-zero emissions.

īNīRGYTRANSITIONOUTLOOKCHINA2024 Anationalforecastto2050 1 EnergyindependenceisakeymotivationfortheChineseenergytransition,butitisonlypartlyachieved. China’senergytransitionandcarbonneutralitywillbepursuedinbalancewithothersocialandeconomicobjectives.NationalenergysecurityisanoverarchingstrategicgoalatthecentreofChinesepolicy.Energyindependenceistargetedthroughenergyconservation,energyswitching,andexpansionofdomesticenergysupplycapabilitiesandunderpinnedbynationally-controlledtechnologysupplychainsand,totheextentpossible,domesticresourcebases. However,theambitionforenergyautonomyisonlypartlyachieved.Thepowersectoristhefirstmoverinreplacingcoalwithdomesticallysourcedrenewableenergy,anddomesticallyproducedcoalwillbesufficientfortheremainingcoaldemandsegmentsby2050.Oilandgasusagewillcontinuetorelyonimports.Althoughoilconsumptionhalvesby2050fromits2027peak,itsuseinpetrochemicalsandheavytransport(aviationandshipping)willlingerand84%ofoilusewillbemetthroughimports.Naturalgasconsumptionwillremainhighwith2050consumptiononly2%below2022levelsand58%beingimported.Thecontinueduseofgasinpowergenerationandbuildingswouldbeprimecandi-datesforfurtherreplacement.Afastertransitiontonetzeroin2050wheremoreoilandgasarereplacedbydomesticallyproducedrenewablesornuclearwouldsignificantlyboostenergyindependence. China'senergyusewillpeakby2030andreduceby20%by2050,drivenbyelectrificationandenergy-efficiencyimprovements. 2 By2030,China'senergyusageisslatedtopeak,followedbyaremarkable20%reductionby2050asaresultofelectrificationandefficiencyinitiatives.Thisdeclineisalsoenabledbydemographicshifts,includingaprojected100millionpopulationdecrease. Ofthe10worldregionsinourforecast,Chinacurrentlyranksas6thintermsofelectrificationofdemand,butitisprojectedtoriseto2ndplace,comprising47%offinalenergydemandby2050,surpassingEuropeandNorthAmericaandtrailingbehindonlyOECDPacific.EnergyefficiencyimprovementisanimportantpartofChineseenergypolicy,andthetargeteddeclineinenergyintensityisevident:a33%reduction,to3.4MJ/USD, isanticipatedby2035,fallingto2.2MJ/USDby2050.LegalframeworksliketheEnergyConservationLawandRenewableEnergyLawfortifytheseendeavours.Sectoralanalysesrevealanotableefficiencysurgeinbuildings,whereefficiencymorethandoublesby2050,propelledbythewidespreadadoptionofairconditionersandheatpumps.Themanufacturingsectorexhibitsgradualgains,whilethetransportsectoranticipatesamodestincreaseto75%efficiencyby2050.Notably,China'sholisticstrategiesextendbeyondsectors,embracinginsulation,recycling,andsustainabletransportationlogisticstocurtailoverallenergyconsumption. China,alreadyaleaderinrenewableenergyinvestments,willmorethanquintuplerenewableenergyinstallationsby2050. 3 WeexpectasubstantialtransformationofChina’spowermixfromfossil-dominatedtoamuchcleanerone.TheshareofrenewablesintotalelectricitygenerationinChinawillincreasefrom30%today,to55%by2035, and88%by2050. Bymid-century,solarandwindeachwillbegeneratingabout38%ofelectricity.Forsolar,morethanathirdoftheinstalledcapacitywillbecombinedwithstorage,mainlybatteries.Forwind,77%ofpowerwillbeprovidedbyonshoreinstallationswhile20%willbedeliveredbyfixedoffshoreand3%byfloatingoffshorestructures. Sustainedcostreductionsduetolearningeffectsarethemaindriverbehindtheprojectedincreaseinsolarandwind,withbothtechnologiesbecomingthecheapestpowersourcesin2050.Ofothernon-fossilsources,nuclearinstallationswilldoubleinabsoluteterms,butwillremainsmallinrelativeterms,producingonly5%ofpowerin2050. Leveragingcostreductionsandsustainedglobalexports,Chinaispoisedtoassisttherestoftheworldinmeetingitsrenewableenergytargets,exportingsolarpanelsandmostlikelyalsowindturbinestomostpartsoftheworld. EmissionsinChinaareprojectedtopeakby2026,followedbya30%reductionby2040. 4 In2022,Chinacontributed33%ofglobalenergyandprocess-relatedCO2emissions,mainlyfromcoalcombustion.China's2022emissionshitarecordhighofaround12.1GtCO2.ChinaaimstoreducecarbonintensityperunitofGDPby65%from2005levelsby2030;weforecastareductionofonly59%bythen.Nevertheless,DNVfindsemissionslikelytopeakby2026,wellinlinewiththeofficialtargetofpeaking‘before2030’,thereaftergraduallydecliningbytwo-thirdsby2050.By2050, weprojectthatChina'semissionssharewilldropto22%oftheglobaltotal.Inthelongerterm,Chinaisclosetomeetingitstargetofcarbonneutralityby2060,butwillneedtoacceleratedecarbonizationofsomesectors,especiallymanufacturing,toensurenet-zerobythen. GiventheweightofChina’scontributiontoglobalemissions,thetiminganddepthofChina’semissionsreductionareofimmenseimportanceglobally.Thenet-zerotrajectoryforChinaoutlinedinDNV'sPathwaytoNetZeroreport(2023)showsthatChina'scumulativeemissionscouldbe113GtCO2lowerthanexpected,significantlyaidingglobaleffortstoreachnetzeroby2050. CONTīNTS Foreword2 Highlights3 1Introduction10 2Policy14 2.1Governanceandkeyagentsofchange16 2.2Policyagendasshapingthetransition20 2.3Chinaandtheglobaltransition32 2.4Implementingpolicyintheoutlook35 3Energydemand36 3.1Transport38 3.2Buildings44 3.3Manufacturing48 3.4Non-energydemand54 4Electricityandhy

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