Intra-African Migration: Exploring the Role of Human Development, Institutions, and Climate Shocks

Intra-AfricanMigration:ExploringtheRoleofHumanDevelopment,Institutions,andClimateShocks DésiréKanga,BoileauLoko,GomezAgou,KangniKpodarWP/24/97 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2024 MAY ©2024InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/97 IMFWorkingPaper AfricanDepartment Intra-AfricanMigration:ExploringtheRoleofHumanDevelopment,Institutions,andClimateShocksPreparedbyDésiréKanga,BoileauLoko,GomezAgou,KangniKpodar* AuthorizedfordistributionbyAlionaCebotariMay2024 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Weexaminepushandpullfactors,includingdemographic,geography,culture,economicandhumandevelopment,politicsandclimate,anduncoverthekeydeterminantsshapingmigrationpatternswithinAfrica.Ourfindingsemphasizethesignificanceofpolitical(instability,ethnictensions)andsocio-demographic(humandevelopment,commonlanguage,populationsizeandstructure)factors,climateshocks,alongwitheconomicmotivations,indrivingintra-Africanmigration.Understandingthesemultifacetedfactorsisvitalforpolicymakersinformulatingeffectivestrategiestoleveragehumancapitalmobilitytopromotesustainabledevelopmentintheregion. JELClassificationNumbers: F22,R23,O15,O55,Q54 Keywords: Migration;climateshocks;humandevelopment;politicalrisk Author’sE-MailAddress: dkanga@imf.org,bloko@imf.org,gagou2@imf.org,kkpodar@imf.org *“WethankAzarSultanov,CedricOkou,CharalambosTsangarides,HenkReinders,AkitoMatsumoto,RasmaneOuedraogofortheirvaluablecomments.UsefulcommentswerealsoreceivedfromparticipantsattheResearchTherapyandataweeklyresearchseminaroftheEcoleNationaleSupérieuredeStatistiqueetd’EconomieAppliquée(ENSEA),especially,RichardMoussa,ArounaDiallo,EvrardAkrassi,CharlesFé,RomaricCoulibaly,NathanielGbenro,andEpiphaneMarahoua.” WORKINGPAPERS Intra-AfricanMigration:ExploringtheRoleofHumanDevelopment,Institutions,andClimateShocks PreparedbyDésiréKanga,BoileauLoko,GomezAgou,KangniKpodar1 1“WethankAzarSultanov,CedricOkou,CharalambosTsangarides,HenkReinders,AkitoMatsumoto,RasmaneOuedraogofortheirvaluablecomments.UsefulcommentswerealsoreceivedfromparticipantsattheResearchTherapyandataweeklyresearchseminaroftheEcoleNationaleSupérieurede Statistiqueetd’EconomieAppliquée(ENSEA),especially,RichardMoussa,ArounaDiallo,Evrard Akrassi,CharlesFé,RomaricCoulibaly,NathanielGbenro,andEpiphaneMarahoua.” IMFWORKINGPAPERSTitleofWP Contents I.Introduction3 II.Theliterature4 III.Theextentofintra-Africanmigration:stylizedfacts5 IV.Dataandempiricalmodel.8 V.Conclusion23 Appendix24 References36 FIGURES Figure1:DestinationofSub-SharanAfricanmigrants(proportionoftotalmigrants)7 Figure2:Intra-Africanmigrationsatregionallevel,2000and20207 TABLES Table1:Migrationpullandpushfactors9 Table2:Resultsofthebaselineregressions12 Table3:Resultsofthebaselineregressionsbysub-regions13 Table4:Testingforclimate-relatedfactors17 Table5:Testingforclimate-relatedfactorsinlandlockedcountries20 TableA.1:Countrysampleandbyregions24 TableA.2:Variabledefinitionsandsources.25 TableA.3:Correlationmatrix26 TableA.4:AverageofeachvariablebyincomegroupandLandlockedness28 TableA.5:Heterogeneitybyincomelevel29 TableA.6:Baselineresults–five-yearaveragemacroeconomicexplanatoryvariables(lagged)32 TableA.8:Resultsofthebaselineregressionswithcommodityexporterstatus33 TableA.9:CommodityexporterstatusofAfricancountries.34 INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND2 I.Introduction Thedriversandmacroeconomicimplicationsofmigrationhavebeenextensivelystudiedintheeconomicliterature.However,theexistingstudiesfocuspredominantlyonthesouth-northmigration(herebyinternationalmigration)andwithin-countrymigration(ruraltourban).Thisisnotsurprisingasinternationalmigration,hasbeenapoliticallychargedissueinthelastdecades.Ontheotherhand,therural-to-urbanmigrationhasattractedinterestasithasbeenseenaspartofthedevelopmentprocessforaneconomyundergoingstructuraltransformation. Lessattentionhasbeenpaidintheliteraturetosouth-southmigration,althoughexistingdatasuggeststhatcontrarytothecommonperception,south-southmigrationisasmuchasextensiveassouth-northmigration.Forinstance,thebulkofAfricanmigrationoccurswithinthecontinent:morethanhalf(53percent)ofAfrica’smigrantsin2017livedinanotherAfricancountries(Lucas,2015;UNCTAD,2018).Thisshareincreasedsubstantiallytomorethan80percentforsub-SaharanAfrica,althoughporousborders,lessstringentimmigrationrequirements,andlargeinformalsectorsinthehostcountry,makeitdifficulttograspthefullpictureanddynamicofmigrationwithinAfrica. UnderstandingthekeyunderlyingdriversofmigrationinAfricaisimportantforseveralreasons.First,thereisanincreasingawarenessfrompolicymakersthatthefullbenefitfromdeepertradeintegrationwouldnotmaterializewithoutremovingimpedi