您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[中泰证券]:绩有所承压,平台化布局碳基材料有望放量 - 发现报告
当前位置:首页/公司研究/报告详情/

绩有所承压,平台化布局碳基材料有望放量

2024-05-09曾彪、吴鹏中泰证券李***
AI智能总结
查看更多
绩有所承压,平台化布局碳基材料有望放量

JK.L(688598.SH)/^_ `a JK.L#2MNOPQRSęUVWX*YZN[\] bcde;</=>Iƒ2024f5g7h 23 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E ç-ÄÅÇ78&É 1,450 1,072 1,597 2,173 2,917 tMÖyoy% 8.4% -26.1% 49.0% 36.1% 34.2% ÜaáÇ78&É 551 202 277 326.0 412.36 tMÖyoy% 10.0% -63.3% 37.0% 17.5% 26.5% à5ÄâÇ&É 4.00 1.47 2.02 2.37 3.00 à5hJ9ä 3.59 1.51 0.93 0.84 0.77 ÜãåÄâÖ 9% 3% 4% 5% 6% P/E 10.0 27.3 19.9 16.9 13.4 P/B 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 ƒ"#$%&'()=>?@ABCDE !"ffi$%40.09&'()%*+ ,-./01%S0740522020001 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn '()%23 ,-./01%S0740522040004 Email%wupeng@zts.com.cn çé%à5èêëíìe56îïñffiŠUôö5ffiõú2024ù5û6IĆffi FGHI *+,- 456(785) 138 9:56(785) 138 !ffi(&) 40.09 !;(78&) 5,518 9:!;(78&) 5,518 ./012-3456fi8 20%!"#$%&300 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% 9:;< 1DEFGHIJK5L%MNO"P/PQRSTUVWPXRYZ[\ ]-^ 2DEFG_IJK5L%O"`a b>cdUe-fghij^ 3DEFGkIJK5L%O"`a ?lmnUod<=p-fqrst^ 4DEFGuIJK5L%v6wx yffi$z[UQ2|B]~^ 45672023889:2023;8<=>?10.72@ABC-26.1%ADEFGH2.02@ABC-63.3%I23Q4<=>?1.94@ABC-36.1%AJC-28.5%ADEFGH-1.09@ABC-301.1%AJC-479.6%K456720248LM9:24Q1 <=>?2.02@ABC-33.1%AJC+4.2%ADEFGH-0.55@ABC-146.3%AJC+50.0%K NOPQ:23Q4NORST,UVWffiYZ[\]A^_?`abcdGeZ[f23Q4<=dGe-0.4%AJCZ[27.1pctgKBhAijklmnofiqrstuvwx4yffiz[_|]K24Q1NO~=¶ÄÅÇA<=dGe5.6%AJCxÉ5.9pctK ÑÖVWN"Üáàâäãå\]¶ÄRSAçw)éèêÅÇK2023;8ÑÖVW<=?`9.6@ABC-31.4%KëqAíì3372îABC+35.9%IVWïffi28.5ñó/îABC-49.5%KVWïffiòôZ[Aöõ23;8dGeBCZ[22.7pctú25.1%Kùûü†A)éffi¢£Nu§èê핶áàÅÇA45ß® ©™¶´Ü¨AVWffiY¶´èêjÉAÆØn¨±Ã“¥ffiYçµZ[âä45ôéı™qØAÑÖVWΪºG¶´=æK Ãiæø¨±¿¡¬7ÄAƒ˚o«»… N"qÀÃÕ: ÑÖ˚o:45ß®©™Œœ–—˚h”‘A’÷£7Äÿ¬f⁄¤6A‹›uv§fifl‡·‚„‰Â–—[ÊÁ‘cm§,ËABh45Èqu§ÍÎÏNÌVW*ÓuAö45ÔÑÖVW˚oôé›ôab”‘K VÒÚ˚o:ÛÙ¤ıˆ˜¿˘˙‚ÿÃ/ÃVW¶˙‚ÿ˚¸¶˝¸˛Uˇuv¤6!uN¬A"#uv˜Ôƒ$ì%&'()*+,£-.’«»K /0˚o:45˜!ƒ$12 3Ã/4(_5*¤6c6(A’˘®ƒ$7 §8™/12ä7‘9)1v:12*Ã/4(_5ÈPá«+AÀ“Ã/4( _5uv˜;˘<=áìKBh>í?“Ã/4(_5uvfKBC-SUˇgK @‰˚o: 6’=uAÃ/ÃBC¶DE¶FG¶HI˛@‰&/JK¨±(œ»Ã/ÃVWUˇ/LA˜«»j45@‰JKLÚ¬MNOIµ5ñîPQI@‰JKLÚ¬MNOIµPQ˜RuAëSf*@‰ÂJK¨±ÃTuv˜UGÒ`ZVJK¨±™/*+K W§˚o:458u10ñ¿XYZÃ[uO¿˘\]A<=<=¬(œAÒ `^_™/‰`2Ná«aÚUABhÔbccdefWg 3-.fßI8u30ñ¿XhfihÃ[Óu]œ˜i,`]œjkl6ffinIomÃipKG*qrcf⁄ 6sõ–—tuAQvÔwx‰Âcyz/[|]±‰Â2N 3-.fßI(WfPSAW~xÿgPQ˜,`Çf\]?ÄffinK ºGçë!RÇQÉ:ÑÖVWffiYZ[AùûZ=ºGçëAçw24-268< =DEFGH0Ü®2.8/3.3/4.1@ófváçëz24-2587.6/9.3@ógABCqÀ37%/18%/27%Aàvâffifi«PE0Ü®20/17/13äA¥ôãå`”QÉK éèxM:£NàËêäçµIuvffiYëíì_IfWî3êä絲K ºGçë~ !"#$% ®©:™7£ &'% ®©:™7£ ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ,-!. 355 529 720 967 /012 1,072 1,597 2,173 2,917 3145 178 265 361 484 /067 778 1,121 1,486 1,939 3189 597 889 1,210 1,624 :.;<= 13 19 25 33 >?89 37 54 72 93 @ABC 63 93 123 162 D, 251 362 480 626 EFBC 57 83 110 145 GH!" 0 0 0 0 IJBC 152 222 296 389 KLMN!" 2,004 2,085 2,173 2,287 OPBC 7 24 33 44 MN!"G) 3,423 4,184 5,015 6,081 QCRSTU -9 -6 -7 -7 KLVWX! 0 0 0 0 !"RSTU -15 -13 -14 -13 VWYZX! 76 76 76 76 [\]S^N1_ -43 -9 -13 -22 `a!" 2,008 1,972 1,948 1,936 X!1_ 66 39 52 46 bcde 1,111 1,191 1,261 1,321 KL1_ 203 232 218 225 fg!" 241 223 208 193 /0&' 230 306 361 460 KLhMN!" 303 303 303 303 /0i12 11 10 11 11 hMN!"G) 3,738 3,765 3,795 3,829 /0ijk 15 6 8 10 !"G) 7,161 7,949 8,811 9,910 &'lm 226 310 364 461 nWo9 54 337 614 982 pq: 22 31 36 46 3?45 145 205 267 341 r&' 204 279 328 415 3?89 389 550 714 913 stYuT_ 1 2 2 2 >19v 0 0 0 0 wxy[zr&' 203 277 326 412 GH#$ 6 8 12 15 NOPLAT 210 301 358 454 KL3?9 1 1 1 1 EPS[|]~Y7ŠÅ1.472.022.373.00 Ç*ÉÑWÖhMN#$ 0 0 0 0 KLMN#$ 109 169 217 277 ÜáOPàâ MN#$G) 704 1,270 1,824 2,530 ()*+20232024E2025E2026E VWo9 341 341 341 341 6Väã 3?$å 0 0 0 0 /012çVâ -26.1% 49.0% 36.1% 34.2% KLhMN#$ 53 53 53 53 EBITçVâ -63.1% 43.1% 19.1% 27.0% hMN#$G) 393 393 393 393 wy[zr&'çVâ -63.3% 37.0% 17.5% 26.5% #$G) 1,098 1,663 2,218 2,923 é&äã wxy[zpèêZ_ 6,058 6,279 6,584 6,975 ë&â 27.4% 29.8% 31.6% 33.5% stYuZ_ 6 7 9 12 r&â 19.0% 17.5% 15.1% 14.2% pèêZ_G) 6,064 6,286 6,593 6,987 ROE 3.3% 4.4% 4.9% 5.9% #$íYuZ_7,1617,9498,8119,910 ROIC 5.5% 6.9% 7.3% 8.2% ì$äã î.Mï%®©:™7£ !"#$â 15.3% 20.9% 25.2% 29.5% ()*+20232024E2025E2026E $PZ_à 7.4% 11.6% 15.3% 19.7% ñ/óNî.M 208 128 115 106 MNàâ 4.9 3.3 2.7 2.4 î.1_ 326 463 517 611 òNàâ 4.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 D,ôö -60 -111 -118 -146 /õäã ñ/ú31ôö 4 -383 -420 -546 l!"ùûâ 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 ñ/ú3?ôö 236 220 226 273 3189ùûüt 173 167 174 175 KLôö -297 -61 -90 -87 3?89ùûüt 141 151 153 151 X!óNî.M -119 -157 -147 -163 D,ùûüt 102 98 102 103 !7jk -1,282 -187 -187 -187 †Y°¢[£Å YZX! -8 0 0 0 †Y1_ 1.47 2.02 2.37 3.00 KLVW!"^§ 1,171 30 40 24 †Yñ/î.M 1.51 0.93 0.84 0.77 •!óNî.M -28 203 223 304 †Yr!" 44.02 45.62 47.84 50.68 o9ç= 117 283 277 369 ¶Sàâ Y&;&ßj? -37 -56 -72 -94 P/E 27.3 19.9 16.9 13.4 Yu•! 44 0 0 0 P/B 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 KLôö -152 -24 18 29 EV/EBITDA 60 42 38 32 !"#Wind$%&'()*+ FGƒ"ij# QÉ ï. âñQÉ å` 絇·6~12óò_"fiBµiô2öõíÔ15%âg qô 絇·6~12óò_"fiBµiô2öõíÔ5%~15%(Õ ô¶ 絇·6~12óò_"fiBµiô2öõíÔ-10%~+5%(Õ úô 絇·6~12óò_"fiBµiô2öùíÔ10%âg £NQÉ qô 絇·6~12óò_fiBµiô2öõíÔ10%âg qm 絇·6~12óò_fiBµiô2öõíÔ-10%~+10%(Õ úô 絇·6~12óò_fiBµiô2öùíÔ10%âg œû:QÉ3ô®9ü67†)*6~12óò_45âffif°£N2ög"fiBµiô2ö*"fifW~=KëqAâfW⢣3002ö®iôI7§GfWâ§G˘2f•fi¶ß®©3*g°§G™f2ö