破产展望 2024 年 3 月

Insolvencyoutlook:post-pandemic adjustmentsoranadversenewnormal? AtradiusEconomicResearch–March2024 Summary In2023weobservedasurgeininsolvencies,withourglobalindexshowinganincreaseof32%.Formostmarketsthisincreasereflectedongoingpost-pandemicadjustmentsafterthreeyearsofpersistentlylowlevels.Fortheotherremainingmarketsinsolvencieshavestabilisedatalevelabovepre-pandemic,suggestingtheemergenceofanadversenewnormalwherecompaniesfacehigherinterestratesandlowerdemand. Ourforecastfor2024and2025isdrivenbythedegreeofadjustmenttopre-pandemiclevelsinthemarketswherethenormalisationisstillinprogressandbypurelyeconomicfactorswhereastabilisationtothenewnormalhasalreadyoccurred. Overall,weexpectgloballyin2024anincreaseof16%,followedbyaminordecreaseof1%in2025. However,thereisawidevariationinthegrowthratesacrossmarkets.Weexpecthighincreasesinthemarketswheretheadjustmentfromlowlevelsstillhastooccur(suchasSingapore,Italy,theNetherlands,PolandandtheUnitedStates). Conversely,weforecasthighdecreasesinmarketswhereinsolvenciesalreadyovershoottheirpre-pandemiclevels(suchasSouthKorea,Ireland,CanadaandFinland). Finally,inmarketswhereinsolvenciesseemtohavestabilised(suchasCzechRepublic,Austria,Belgium,Romania,Norway,UnitedKingdom)weexpectsmallerfluctuations. Challengingeconomycloudsbusinesses’‘returntonormal’ Globalinsolvenciesaresoaringasbusinessesgrapplewiththedoublewhammyofsputteringeconomicactivityandthephasingoutofpandemic-erasupport.Afterincreasingbyastaggering32%in2023,insolvenciesarevirtuallybacktotheirlevelfrom2019.Butwedon’texpecttoseeinsolvenciesstabilisejustyet.Instead,weprojectanothersubstantialriseof16%in2024,followedbyastabilisationin2025. Formostmarkets,thepost-pandemicsurgeininsolvenciesisstillongoinganditisdifficulttoassesswhetherthisisapostpandemicadjustmentorwhetheritwillleadtoastabilisationtoanadversenewnormal. Duringthepandemicinsolvenciescontractedmassivelyalmostacrossallmarketsasaresultofthegovernmentsupport.Thus,webelievethattheriseininsolvenciesinthemostrecentdataistoalargeextentstillduetopost-pandemicrelatedadjustment.However,foraminorityofmarketswedoseeinsolvenciesstabilisingatlevelshigherthanbeforethepandemic,whichmakesusbelievethatthecurrenteconomicenvironmentisalsocontributingtotheformationofanadversenewnormal. Thepost-pandemiceconomicrecoveryhaslargelyrunitscourseandtheglobaleconomyislosingsteam,withgrowthslowing0.3percentagepointsto2.4%thisyear.Inflationhaseasedbutnotyetconfidentlytotargetrates.Assuch,centralbanksarestillcautioustoloosentheirpolicies,keepinginterestratesathighlevelsatleastuntillaterthisspring.Therefore,thepressurethatbusinesses facefromhigherinterestrateswillpersistthisyearandmayonlyseereliefin2025,giventhelaggedeffectofmonetarypolicy.ThelatestbanklendingsurveysintheboththeUSandeurozoneforinstancebothshowedexpectationsoffurthertighteningoflendingstandardsforcompaniesinthecomingmonths.Thisaddsevenmorepressureforfirmsasthecashbuffersthatmanycompaniesamassedduringthepandemichavenowbeenlargelyexhausted.Withlesscapacitytomitigatetheeffectsofthebroadereconomicslowdown,weanticipatehigherinsolvenciesinthecomingyears. 2023bringsanoverallincreaseininsolvencies,withawidevariationacrossmarkets Outofthe29marketsthatwemonitorinthisreport,24registeredincreasesininsolvencies.Tobettervisualisetheinsolvenciessnapshotfor2023,weclassifymarketsacrosstwodimensions.First,wegroupcountriesinto“stable”and“deteriorating”dependingontheirinsolvenciesgrowthratefor2023.Ifthegrowthratefallsintothe-15%/+15%interval,thenweconsiderthatcountryas“stable”,whileagrowthratehigherthan15%weassignas“deteriorating”.Therewerenocountrieswithagrowthratelowerthan-15%,sothe“stable”and“deteriorating”groupscoverallthecountriesinoursample. Second,wegroupcountriesdependingontheiraverageinsolvencylevelin2022relativetotheirpre-pandemiclevel.Thisisimportantforinterpretingwhetherthe2023dynamicsareduetopandemicrelatedadjustmentsorduetoadditionalfactorsintheeconomicenvironmentsuchashighinterestratesorlowerdemand.Duringthepandemic,wewitnessedinsolvenciesdecreasingalmostacrossallmarketsasaresultofthestronggovernmentsupport.Therefore,astilllowlevelofinsolvenciesin2022relativetothepre-pandemicindicatesthatapositivegrowthratefor2023iscontributingtoanadjustmenttopre-pandemiclevels. Weuseasareferencethe2019meaninsolvencylevel.Iftheinsolvenciesinagivenmarkethavereachedatleast95%ofthisreferencelevel,weclassifyinsolvenciesinthatmarketas“above”thenormal,whileintheoppositecaseitis“below”thenormal. Applyingthesetwoclassifications,wecangroupcountriesinfourquadrantsthatarereproducedinthematrixinfigure 1.Additionally,toassesstheoverallriskinessofagivenmarketrelativetothepre-pandemic,wecomputeinfigure2the2023meaninsolvencylevelsrelativetothemean2019insolvencylevel. Figure1Insolvenciesdeterioratein2023mostlyinmarketsthatstartedoutwithalowinsolvencylevelrelativetopre-pandemic Insolvencymatrix2023 2023growth StableDeteriorating Sweden,Ireland,NewZealand,France,Germany,Australia,Japan,Norway,HongKong,Italy,USA,Netherlands SouthKorea,Finland,Canada Belgium,Po