2024年Q1媒体通胀报告（英）

media inflation report Q12024 REPORTISSUE35 Contents (Clickableindownloadedversion) ExecutiveSummary3 GlobalEconomicOutlook5 GlobalInflationTrends7 GlobalContext8 MediaandTechDevelopments11 GlobalMediaInflation14 RegionalMediaInflation17 MarketsinDetail20 NorthAmerica21 Europe,theMiddleEastandAfrica24 AsiaPacific39 LatinAmerica50 AboutECI55 OurProductOffering56 Contacts57 Executive summary 2024 Theworldisfacingcontinuinguncertainty,withtheupheavalofthepandemicgivingwaytogeopoliticaltensionseruptinginEuropeandtheMiddleEast.Theglobaleconomycontinuestoteeterbetweenrecoveryand recession,withglimmersoflight –notablytheUS–neutralizedbystrugglesinmajoreconomiessuchasGermany,theUKandJapan.Thisongoinguncertainty, coupledwithhigher-than-desirableinflationinmanycountries,isleadingtocautionamongbothconsumersandinvestors. Allthistranslatestoanequallymixedpictureforadvertiserstheworldover.OnthepositivesideistheeconomicrecoveryintheUS,aswellasanactiveyearintermsofsport,withtheOlympicandParalympicGamesinParisandtheUEFAEurosinGermanyofferingplentifulinvestmentopportunities.However, theuncertaintyinthemarketsandonthepartofconsumersmeansthatadvertisersneed,nowmorethanever,totreadcarefullyandensureeverydollartheyinvestworkshardanddrivesbusinessresultsfortheirbrand. Inarapidlyevolvingmedialandscape,withAIpermeatingallareasoftheindustryandthecookiefinallyfacingitsdemise,thisisanincreasinglychallengingandcomplextask. ECIMediaManagementforecaststhatin2024,overallglobalmediainflationwillbeat3.1%,slightlylowerthanin2023,whichwasinturnsignificantlylowerthanin2022.Thisslowingdownislikelyasignofthechallengingcontext.Allmediatypesareforecastto seesomelevelofinflationatagloballevel,althoughtherearevariationsataregionalandmarketlevel.OOHandOnlineVideoareforecasttohavethehighestinflationatagloballevel,overtakingTVwhichhadthe highestforecastinearly2023,butwhichwasdowngradedoverthecourseoftheyear.ThehighinflationthatOnlineVideoisseeingcanbeinpartexplainedbythecontinuedgrowthoftheCTVandstreamingsector.BothPrintmedia,whichweredeflationaryin2023,areforecasttomakeaweakrecoveryatagloballevelin2024. Executive summary 2024 Ataregionallevel,allmediatypesareforecasttobeinflationaryinEMEA,LATAMandAPAC.ThereisadifferentstoryinNorthAmerica,however,whereTVandbothPrintmediaareexpectedtobedeflationary.TheboostgiventoTVintheUSbyincreasedinvestmentfortheOlympicsandtheelectionsisbeingoffsetbytheshiftofdollarstoCTV,andtheuncertaineconomicclimate. OverallmediainflationinEMEAremainsunchangedfrom2023,withaslightincreaseinOfflinedeflationoffsettingaslightdecreaseinOnline.MediainflationinAPACissimilarlyconsistent,havingraisedbylessthanonepercentagepointover2023.Mediainflation ismuchmorevolatileinLATAM–whiletheoverallinflationlevelshavenotincreasedmuchyearonyear,theyaremuchhigherthanintheotherregions. AtECIMediaManagement,weprideourselvesonourforensic,modernapproachtounder-standingthemediaindustry.Whetherweareanalyzingourclients’mediainvestmentssothey canoptimizefutureinvestments,orliftingthelidonindustrytrends,ourgoalisalwaysthesame:toempoweradvertiserstodrivehighermediavaluefromtheirmediainvestments. Ourexpertshavebeentrackingmediainflationsince2012,harnessingtheirdeepknowledgeoftheadvertisinglandscapeandindustry-leadingdataanalysisskillstounderstand howmediainflationisevolvingandpredicthowitwillchangeintheyearahead. Weobtainourdatafromanumberofsources,includingourglobalnetworkofexperts,realclientdata,andagencies.Wecross-referenceitwithdatafromindustrybodiesandpublications,aswellaswithagencytradersandmediavendors,soitholisticallyreflectstheexpertiseofallthosewithanimpactontradingvariables.We’reproudthatourinflationdataisusedasatrustedsourcebyindustrybodiesincludingWARC. Global economic outlook Althoughtheglobalgeopoliticalsituationcurrentlyfeelsgloomy,withwarsinEuropeandtheMiddleEastignitingtensionsamongcountriesfarbeyondthoseregions,theeconomicoutlook–whiledifficult–isshowingsignsofresilience. Thelatestswipeontheglobaleconomy TheCovid-19pandemicandthewarinUkrainehave,inthewordsofPatriciaCohenintheNewYorkTimes,‘landedlikeswipesofabearclawontheglobaleconomy,smackingitoffcourseandleavingscars’.ThelatestswipecomesintheformoftheescalatingconflictintheMiddleEast;attacksbyHouthirebelsonshipsintheRedSeaarepushingupthecostsofmovingcargoaroundtheworld–theseincreasedcostsarebeingreflectedthroughoutthesupplychainandinthefinalcosttoconsumers. Amixedpicturefromglobaleconomicinstitutions Atthestartoftheyear,theWorldBankgaveamixedappraisaloftheglobaleconomy.Itpointsoutthattheriskofarecessionhasreducedandthestateoftheglobaleconomyismorepositivethanayearago,thanksmainlytothehealthoftheUSeconomy.However,thegrowingtensions couldthrowtherecoveryoffcourse.Itforecaststhatglobalgrowthwillslowforthethirdyear inarow,from2.6%in2023to2.4%in2024 –almostthree-quartersofapercentagepointbelowtheaverageinthe2010s.The2020sissettohaveapoorrecordforglobalgrowth–theslowesthalf-decadeofGDPgrowthfor30years. TheIMFpaintsaslightlymoreoptimisticpicture.Itsaysthatthechanceofa‘softlanding’fortheglobal