2024 年全球电动汽车展望 ： 迈向更高的可负担性

GlobalEVOutlook2024 Movingtowardsincreasedaffordability INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum ofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits 31membercountries, 13associationcountriesandbeyond. Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Source:IEA. InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.org IEAmembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanada CzechRepublicDenmarkEstonia FinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuania LuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugal SlovakRepublicSpain SwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStates TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA IEAassociationcountries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore SouthAfricaThailandUkraine IEA.CCBY4.0. Abstract TheGlobalEVOutlookisanannualpublicationthatidentifiesandassessesrecentdevelopmentsinelectricmobilityacrosstheglobe.ItisdevelopedwiththesupportofmembersoftheElectricVehiclesInitiative(EVI). Combininganalysisofhistoricaldatawithprojections–nowextendedto2035–thereportexamineskeyareasofinterestsuchasthedeploymentofelectricvehiclesandcharginginfrastructure,batterydemand,investmenttrends,andrelatedpolicydevelopmentsinmajorandemergingmarkets.ItalsoconsiderswhatwiderEVadoptionmeansforelectricityandoilconsumptionandgreenhousegasemissions.Thereportincludesanalysisoflessonslearnedfromleadingmarkets,providinginformationforpolicymakersandstakeholdersonpolicyframeworksandmarketsystemsthatsupportelectricvehicleuptake. Thiseditionalsofeaturesanalysisofelectricvehicleaffordability,second-handmarkets,lifecycleemissionsofelectriccarsandtheirbatteries,andgridimpactsfromchargingmedium-andheavy-dutyelectrictrucks.Twoonlinetoolsaremadeavailablealongsidethereport:theGlobalEVDataExplorerandtheGlobalEVPolicyExplorer,whichallowuserstointeractivelyexploreEVstatisticsandprojections,andpolicymeasuresworldwide. Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits TheGlobalEVOutlook2024waspreparedbytheEnergyTechnologyPolicy(ETP)DivisionoftheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks(STO)oftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).TheprojectwasdesignedanddirectedbyTimurGül,ChiefEnergyTechnologyOfficer.AraceliFernandezPales,HeadoftheTechnologyInnovationUnit,providedstrategicguidancethroughoutthedevelopmentoftheproject.ElizabethConnellyco-ordinatedtheanalysisandproductionofthereport. TheprincipalIEAauthorswere(inalphabeticalorder):OskarasAlšauskas,ElizabethConnelly,MathildeHuismans,EthanJenness,JavierJorqueraCopier,Jean-BaptisteLeMarois,TeoLombardo,ShaneMcDonagh,VeraO’Riordan,ApostolosPetropoulosandJulesSery.YoshihisaTsukamotoandBiqingYangcontributedtotheresearchonEVsupportivepoliciesandOEMelectrificationplans.VedantSinhacontributedtoanalysisonEVpriceparityanddatamanagement.AnthonyVautrincontributedtotheanalysisontotalandnetloadimpactsofelectrictruckcharging. ValuableinsightsandfeedbackwereprovidedbyseniormanagementandothercolleaguesfromacrossIEA,includingLauraCozzi,KeisukeSadamori,BrianMotherway,AlessandroBlasi,TorilBosoni,DennisHesseling,StéphanieBouckaert,AlexanderBressers,FedericoCallioni,ShobhanDhir,CiaranHealy,ThomasSpencerandJacquesWarichet.Per-AndersWidellprovidedessentialsupportthroughouttheprocess.LizzieSayereditedthemanuscript. SpecialthanksgotoProf.AndreasUlbigandhisteamatRWTHAachenUniversity(AndreasBongandChrisVertgewall)fortheiranalyticalinputonelectricheavy-dutyvehicleintegrationinelectricitygrids. ThanksgototheIEA’sCommunicationsandDigitalOffice,particularlytoJethroMullen,PoeliBojorquez,CurtisBrainard,JonCuster,HortensedeRoffignac,AstridDumond,MerveErdil,GraceGordon,JuliaHorowitz,OliverJoy,IsabelleNonain-Semelin,ClaraVallois,LucileWallandWonjikYang. IEA.CCBY4.0. TheworkcouldnothavebeenachievedwithoutthefinancialsupportprovidedbytheEVImembergovernmentsandthefundsreceivedthroughtheGlobalE-MobilityProgrammefundedbytheGlobalEnvironmentFacility(GEF). Thereportbenefitedfromthehigh-calibredataandsupportprovidedbythefollowingcolleagues:NissaAlexander(DepartmentofEconomicDevelopment,TransportandCivilAviation,SaintLucia);MozahMohamedAlnuaimi(MinistryofEnergyandInfrastructure,UnitedArabEmirates);CarlosAndrésÁlvarezÁlvarez(MinistryofMinesandEnergy,Colombia);SoukainaBoudoudouh(IRESEN,Morocco);KlaasBurgdorf(SwedishEnergyAgency);BryanCancán(MINAM,Peru);PamelaCastillo(MinistryofEnergy,Chile);AdonayUrrutiaCortez(GeneralDirectorateforEnergy,ElSalvador);LaurentDemilie(FederalPublicServiceMobilityandTransport,Belgium);AlbertDessi(DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater,Australia);JoannaDobek(MinistryofClimateandEnvironment,Poland);AlexandraDoyle-Franklin(EnergyEfficiencyandConservationAuthorit