CBDC 对金融稳定的电影

FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries FederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print) ISSN2767-3898(Online) FinancialStabilityImplicationsofCBDC FrancescaCarapella,Jin-WookChang,SebastianInfante,MelissaLeistra,AraziLubis,andAlexandrosP.Vardoulakis 2024-021 Pleasecitethispaperas: Carapella,Francesca,Jin-WookChang,SebastianInfante,MelissaLeistra,AraziLubis,andAlexandrosP.Vardoulakis(2024).“FinancialStabilityImplicationsofCBDC,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2024-021.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.021. NOTE:StaffworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers. FinancialStabilityImplicationsofCBDC1 FrancescaCarapella,Jin‐WookChang,SebastianInfante,MelissaLeistra,AraziLubis,andAlexandrosP.Vardoulakis BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystemApril10,2024 Abstract ACentralBankDigitalCurrency(CBDC)isaformofdigitalmoneythatisdenominatedinthenationalunitofaccountandconstitutesadirectliabilityofthecentralbank.WeexaminethefinancialstabilityrisksandbenefitsofissuingaCBDCunderdifferentdesignoptions.OuranalysisisbasedonlessonsderivedfromhistoricalcasestudiesaswellasonananalyticalframeworkthatallowsustocharacterizethemechanismsthroughwhichaCBDCcanaffectfinancialstability.Wefurtherdiscussvariouspolicytoolsthatcanbeemployedtomitigatefinancialstabilityrisks. Keywords:CBDC,financialstability,runs,stablecoins,centralbankliabilities,regulation. JELclassification:E40,E50,G01,G21,G23,G28 1TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheFederalReserveBoard,oranyoneintheFederalReserveSystem.WethankMichaelKiley,BethKlee,AndreasLehnert,DanielSanches,ChiaraScotti,SkanderVandenHeuvelforusefulcommentsandsuggestions. 1.Introduction ACentralBankDigitalCurrency(CBDC)isaformofdigitalmoneythatisdenominatedinthenationalunitofaccount,constitutesadirectliabilityofthecentralbank,andcanbedistinguishedfromothercentralbankliabilities.2ACBDCcouldalterthefinancialandpaymentsecosysteminfar-reachingways.WhetherthesechangesmakethefinancialsystemmorestableormorefragilewilldependonhowCBDCisdesignedandhowthefinancialsystemadjuststoitsimplementation.3 ThispaperexaminesthefinancialstabilityimplicationsofaCBDCunderdifferentdesignoptionsanddiscussespolicytoolsthatcanbeemployedtomitigatefinancialstabilityrisks.Asdiscussedinmoredetailbelow,whileaCBDCcouldinconceptbeheldortransferredbyanyparty,ouranalysisgenerallyfollowsthefourbroaddesignrecommendationsprovidedbytheFederalReserve’s2022discussionpaper:(i)privacyprotected;(ii)intermediated;(iii)widelytransferable;and(iv)identityverified.4ThispaperdoesnotmoregenerallyanalyzetradeoffsrelatedtoCBDCpolicyanddesignchoicesoutsideofthefinancialstabilitylens. WeexaminethreebroadwaysinwhichaCBDCmayaffectfinancialstability.5First,aCBDCmayincreasethefinancialsector’svulnerabilitytodestabilizingruns.Byofferingasaferasset,relativetoprivateliabilitiesofthefinancialsector,aCBDCmaypresentanattractiveoptionfordepositorsandinvestorstoflytoduringtimesofstress.Somenonbankinstitutions,suchas 2Mostcentralbanksalreadyprovidedigitalliabilitiesintheformofreservebalances,whicharemainlyaccessibletobanks.CommondefinitionsofCBDCdonotattempttodetermineonwhichdimensionsCBDCcouldorshouldvaryfromotherdigitalcentralbankmonies.Therearemanypotentialdesignandpolicychoicevariations.Seeforexample,CMPI2018https://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d174.pdf 3TheFederalReservehasmadenodecisionsonwhethertoissueacentralbankdigitalcurrencyanddoesnotintendtoproceedwithissuanceofaCBDCwithoutclearsupportfromtheexecutivebranchandfromCongress,intheformofaspecificauthorizinglaw(FederalReserveBoard,2022). 4BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(2022),“MoneyandPayments:TheUSDollarintheAgeofDigitalTransformation,”DiscussionPaper,January2022. 5ThispaperfocusesonfinancialstabilityrisksfromaCBDCduringtimesofstressratherthanonthepotentialeffectofaCBDConbankdepositsandcreditprovisionduringnormaltimes. primemoneyfunds,mightsufferlargerormorefrequentrunsinthepresenceofaCBDC.Policytools,suchasCBDCremunerationandquantitylimitsonCBDCholdings,havethepotentialtomitigatesuchrunrisks,complementingtraditionalcentralbanktoolsforemergencyliquidityassistance.Tieredremuneration—wherebyremunerationdecreasesasCBDCholdingsincreaseandcanbeadjustedduringtimesofstress—couldbecombinedwithahardquantitylimitonindividualholdings.TheholdinglimitcouldbechosentopreventsevereandwidespreadrunstoCBDC,whilepaymentsinCBDCcontinuetobepossible.Thecalibrationofholdinglimitsisanimportantbutdifficulttask.GiventheuncertaintyaboutthedemandforCBDC,settingholdinglimitsmayinvolveaprocessoftrialanderror. Second,aCBDCmayweakenfinancialstabilityb