The Flow Show ： 如果鸽子不适合

TheFlowShow Ifthedovedon’tfit… Accessibleversion ScoresontheDoors:crypto30.7%,oil15.2%,gold14.8%,commodities9.6%,US dollar4.8%,stocks3.7%,cash1.6%,HYbonds-0.3%,stocks(equal-weighted)-1.8%,IG bonds-3.0%,govtbonds-5.5%YTD. Zeitgeist:Canadajackingupcapitalgainstaxratesfrom50%to67%...highlyindebtedWesterngovernmentshavepromisestokeep,warstofund…meanshigherinflation,higheryields&highertaxation…untillikelycentralbankbailoutofpublicsector. TheBiggestPicture:riskassetscorrectinginQ2as“goodnews=good”inQ1flipsto“goodnews=bad”;AprilBofAGlobalFMS(seenote)saysinvestorsmostbullishsinceJan’22justasratecutcatalystnolongera“lock”;bullssaynothingmorehealthythan“back’n’fill”correction;bearssaywatchUSgrowthstocks(strugglingtobreaktonewhighs–Chart2)&HYbonds(Chart3)tosignalmoresinistertransitionto“badnews=bad.” ThePriceisRight:basedonprice(Table1),flows&positioningthecontrarian“paintrades”topositionforsurpriseboutof“badnews=bad”…longbonds-shortstocks,longcash-shortcommodities,longChina-shortJapan,longstaples-shorttech&industrials. TaleoftheTape:weirdtoseesimultaneousstrengthintech(annualizing21%YTD),commodities(47%)&USdollar(16%);happenedinonly5ofpast60years…1969,1983,1999,2016,2021(seerankedassetpricereturnsbydecade–Charts4-10)…yearsofstimulus-inducedbooms(Reagan“twindeficits”in‘83,COVIDin‘21),bubbles(‘99)&inflection(’69…startofstagflation,’16…onsetofde-globalization). Chart2:TheBellyoftheBeast S&P500GrowthETF(SPYG) 80 18April2024 InvestmentStrategyGlobal MichaelHartnettInvestmentStrategistBofAS +16468551508 michael.hartnett@bofa.com ElyasGalou>>InvestmentStrategistBofASE(France) +33187700087 elyas.galou@bofa.com AnyaShelekhinInvestmentStrategistBofAS S&P500Growth(SPYG) 70 60 50 40 30 20 Dec'21Mar'24 +16468553753 anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-JeeJungInvestmentStrategistBofAS +16468550389 myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Chart1:BofABull&BearIndicator Dropsto5.0from5.2 5.0 46 2 Buy 8 Sell 10 0 '17'18'19'20'21'22'23'24 Source:BofAGlobalInvestmentStrategy,Bloomberg Moreonpage2… BofAGLOBALRESEARCH Tradingideasandinvestmentstrategiesdiscussedhereinmaygiverisetosignificantriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Investorsshouldhaveexperienceinrelevantmarketsandthefinancialresourcestoabsorbanylossesarisingfromapplyingtheseideasorstrategies. >>Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofBofASandisnotregistered/qualifiedasaresearchanalyst ExtremeBearish ExtremeBullish undertheFINRArules. Referto"OtherImportantDisclosures"forinformationoncertainBofASecuritiesentitiesthattakeresponsibilityfortheinformationhereininparticularjurisdictions. BofASecuritiesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithissuerscoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision. Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpage12to14.12683509 Timestamp:18April202410:36PMEDT Source:BofAGlobalInvestmentStrategyTheindicatoridentifiedaboveastheBofABull&BearIndicatorisintendedtobeanindicativemetriconlyandmaynotbeusedforreferencepurposesorasameasureofperformanceforanyfinancialinstrumentorcontract,orotherwiserelieduponbythirdpartiesforanyotherpurpose,withoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBofAGlobalResearch.Thisindicatorwasnotcreatedtoactasabenchmark. BofAGLOBALRESEARCH WeeklyFlows:$5.7bntobonds,$26mntocrypto,$0.9bnfromgold,$9.1bnfromstocks,$159.8bnfromcash. FlowstoKnow: Cash:massivetax-relatedoutflowof$160.0bn, IGbonds:25thweeklyinflowof$3.8bn,albeitsmallestsinceDec’23, HYbonds:largestweeklyoutflowof$2.3bnsinceOct’23, USstocks:largest2-weekoutflow($21.1bn)sinceDec’22. BofAPrivateClients:$3.5tnAUMofwhich61.2%stocks,20.4%bonds,11.7%cash;past4weeksGWIMbuyingEMdebt,Japan&financialETFs,sellinghealthcare,utilities&energyETFs. BofABull&BearIndicator:dropsto5.0from5.2asoutflowsfromstocksandHYbondsoutweighdropinBofAFMScashlevels. Chart3:OminousHY HighyieldcorporatebondETF(HYG)vs200-daymovingaverage High-yieldbonds(HYG)200dma Table1:Leaders&Laggardsof‘24 Cross-assetpriceactionYTD,relativeto50/100/200dma,andvs‘21peaks Apr'24 75.8 (vs75.5 200dma) Index YTD% vs50dma vs100dma vs200dma vs'21peak LeadersBitcoin 51.5% -5.4% 12.0% 35.4% -7.9% Oil 13.1% 2.0% 6.3% 3.5% 0.5% Magnificent7 13.6% -1.2% 5.2% 13.6% 23.1% Gold 15.3% 9.8% 13.3% 17.9% 21.4% Semiconductors 7.6% -5.5% 1.8% 12.8% 10.8% Commodities 9.6% 2.8% 5.6% 4.5% 31.1% Large-capgrowth 8.1% -2.2% 2.5% 8.6% -4.5% Industrials 5.9% -0.9% 3.4% 8.9% 12.1% Homebuilders 5.3% -3.4% 2.5% 13.6% 16.3% S&P500 5.1% -2.1% 1.6% 7.3% 4.2% USdollar 4.8% 1.8% 2.5% 2.1% 9.5% CCCHYbonds 0.4% -1.5% 0.2% 3.8% 7.3% LaggardsEmergingmarketsUSIGbonds -0.5% -1.2% 0.8% 2.7% -29.7% Russell2000 -2.5% -1.5% -1.6% 1.2% -8.6% Biotech -4.1% -4.8% -2.5% 1.7% -21.0% Small-capvalue -6.5% -10.7% -6.7% 1.0% -52.2% REITs -6.0% -4.1% -3.0% 0.9% -17.6% Japaneseyen -10.0% -6.2% -6.6% -2.7% -25.4% US30-yearTreasury -9.6% -2.6% -4.4% -4.8% -33.9% Japangovtbonds -9.5% -4.3% -5.7% -3.8% -34.1% Regionalbanks -10.3% -3.6% -5.5% -5.9% -38.1% Cleanenergy -12.1% -4