The Flow Show ： 如果鸽子不适合

Ifthe dove don’t fit… Scores on the Doors: crypto 30.7%, oil 15.2%, gold 14.8%, commodities 9.6%, USdollar 4.8%, stocks 3.7%, cash 1.6%, HY bonds -0.3%, stocks (equal-weighted) -1.8%, IGbonds -3.0%, govt bonds -5.5% YTD. 18 April 2024 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist: Canada jacking up capital gains tax rates from 50% to 67%...highly indebtedWestern governments have promises to keep, wars to fund…means higher inflation,higher yields & higher taxation…until likely central bank bailout of public sector. The Biggest Picture: risk assets correcting in Q2 as“good news = good”in Q1 flips to“good news = bad”;April BofA Global FMS(see note) says investors most bullish sinceJan’22 just as rate cut catalyst no longer a“lock”; bulls say nothing more healthy than“back’n’fill”correction; bears say watch US growth stocks (struggling to break to newhighs–Chart 2) & HY bonds (Chart 3) to signal more sinister transition to“bad news =bad.” The Price is Right: based on price (Table 1), flows & positioning the contrarian“paintrades”to position for surprise bout of“bad news = bad”…long bonds-short stocks, longcash-short commodities, long China-short Japan, long staples-short tech & industrials. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of the Tape:weird to see simultaneous strength intech (annualizing 21% YTD),commodities (47%) & US dollar (16%); happened in only 5 of past 60 years…1969, 1983,1999, 2016, 2021 (see ranked asset price returns by decade–Charts 4-10)…years ofstimulus-induced booms (Reagan“twin deficits”in‘83, COVID in‘21), bubbles (‘99) &inflection (’69…start of stagflation,’16…onset of de-globalization). Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise tosignificant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14.12683509 Timestamp: 18 April 2024 10:36PM EDT Weekly Flows: $5.7bn to bonds, $26mn to crypto, $0.9bn from gold, $9.1bn fromstocks, $159.8bn from cash. Flows to Know: •Cash: massive tax-related outflow of $160.0bn,•IG bonds: 25thweekly inflow of $3.8bn, albeit smallest since Dec’23,•HY bonds: largest weekly outflow of $2.3bn since Oct’23,•US stocks: largest 2-week outflow ($21.1bn) since Dec’22. BofA Private Clients: $3.5tn AUM of which 61.2% stocks, 20.4% bonds, 11.7% cash;past 4 weeks GWIM buying EM debt, Japan & financial ETFs, selling healthcare, utilities& energy ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: drops to 5.0 from 5.2 as outflows from stocks and HYbonds outweigh drop in BofA FMS cash levels. Chart3:OminousHYHigh yield corporate bond ETF (HYG)vs 200-day moving average Cross-asset price action YTD, relative to 50/100/200dma, and vs ‘21 peaks Cross asset returns in the 2020s Asset Class Flows (Table 2) Equities:$9.1bn outflow ($2.4bninflow toETFs, $11.5bn outflowfrom mutual funds) Bonds:inflows past 17 weeks ($5.7bn) Precious metals:outflows past 2 weeks ($0.9bn) Fixed Income Flows(Chart11) IG Bondinflows past 25 weeks ($3.8bn) HY Bondoutflows past 3 weeks ($2.3bn) EM Debtinflows past 3 weeks ($1.0bn) Munisoutflows resume ($0.8bn) Govt/Tsyinflows past 10 weeks ($5.0bn) TIPSoutflows past 2 weeks ($0.5bn) Bank loanoutflows resume ($0.1bn) Equity Flows (Table3)US: outflows past 2 weeks ($4.1bn) Japan:outflows past 2 weeks ($0.6bn) Europe: outflows past 16 weeks ($1.8bn) EM: outflows past 2 weeks ($2.1bn) By style: outflowsUS large cap($1.2bn),US small cap($1.7bn),US value($2.2bn)