央行数字货币和银行业：类现金设计的宏观经济效益

Thisarticlewasdownloadedby:[2001:da8:d800:a7f6:c9b8:99dd:9bc3:15c0]On:13January2024,At:20:54Publisher:InstituteforOperationsResearchandtheManagementSciences(INFORMS) INFORMSislocatedinMaryland,USA ManagementScience Publicationdetails,includinginstructionsforauthorsandsubscriptioninformation:http://pubsonline.informs.org CentralBankDigitalCurrencyandBanking:MacroeconomicBenefitsofaCash-LikeDesign JonathanChiu,SeyedMohammadrezaDavoodalhosseini Tocitethisarticle: JonathanChiu,SeyedMohammadrezaDavoodalhosseini(2023)CentralBankDigitalCurrencyandBanking:MacroeconomicBenefitsofaCash-LikeDesign.ManagementScience69(11):6708-6730.https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02763 Fulltermsandconditionsofuse:https://pubsonline.informs.org/Publications/Librarians-Portal/PubsOnLine-Terms-and-Conditions Thisarticlemaybeusedonlyforthepurposesofresearch,teaching,and/orprivatestudy.Commercialuseorsystematicdownloading(byrobotsorotherautomaticprocesses)isprohibitedwithoutexplicitPublisherapproval,unlessotherwisenoted.Formoreinformation,contactpermissions@informs.org. ThePublisherdoesnotwarrantorguaranteethearticle’saccuracy,completeness,merchantability,fitnessforaparticularpurpose,ornon-infringement.Descriptionsof,orreferencesto,productsorpublications,orinclusionofanadvertisementinthisarticle,neitherconstitutesnorimpliesaguarantee,endorsement,orsupportofclaimsmadeofthatproduct,publication,orservice. Copyright©2023,INFORMS Pleasescrolldownforarticle—itisonsubsequentpages With12,500membersfromnearly90countries,INFORMSisthelargestinternationalassociationofoperationsresearch(O.R.)andanalyticsprofessionalsandstudents.INFORMSprovidesuniquenetworkingandlearningopportunitiesforindividualprofessionals,andorganizationsofalltypesandsizes,tobetterunderstandanduseO.R.andanalyticstoolsandmethodstotransformstrategicvisionsandachievebetteroutcomes. FormoreinformationonINFORMS,itspublications,membership,ormeetingsvisithttp://www.informs.org https://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/mnsc MANAGEMENTSCIENCE Vol.69,No.11,November2023,pp.6708–6730 ISSN0025-1909(print),ISSN1526-5501(online) CentralBankDigitalCurrencyandBanking:MacroeconomicBenefitsofaCash-LikeDesign JonathanChiu,a,*SeyedMohammadrezaDavoodalhosseinia aBankingandPaymentsDepartment,BankofCanada,Ottawa,OntarioK1A0G9,Canada *Correspondingauthor Contact:jchiu@bankofcanada.ca,https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3276-5927(JC);davo@bankofcanada.ca,https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6813-1088(SMD) Received:August24,2021 Revised:March18,2022;December16,2022; May12,2023 Accepted:May22,2023 PublishedOnlineinArticlesinAdvance: August31,2023 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02763Copyright:©2023INFORMS Abstract.Manycentralbanksareconsideringissuingacentralbankdigitalcurrency(CBDC).HowwilltheCBDCaffectthemacroeconomy?Willitsdesignmatter?Toanswerthesequestions,wetheoreticallyandquantitativelyassesstheeffectsofaCBDConcon-sumption,banking,andwelfare.Ourmodelcapturesthecompetitionbetweendifferentmeansofpaymentsandincorporatesanovelgeneralequilibriumfeedbackeffectfromtransactionstodepositscreation.ThegeneralequilibriumeffectsofaCBDCaredecom-posedintothreechannels:paymentefficiency,priceeffects,andbankfundingcosts.Weshowthatacash-likeCBDCismoreeffectivethanadeposit-likeCBDCinpromotingcon-sumptionandwelfare.Interestingly,acash-likeCBDCcanalsocrowdinbanking,evenintheabsenceofbankmarketpower.Inacalibratedmodel,atthemaximum,acash-likeCBDCcanincreasebankintermediationby10.2%andwelfareby0.059%,anditcancap-tureupto23.3%ofthepaymentmarket.WealsodiscusssomelessonsfordesigningaCBDC. History:AcceptedbyWillCong,SpecialSectionofManagementScience:BlockchainsandCryptoEconomics. SupplementalMaterial:Thedatafilesandonlineappendixareavailableathttps://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02763. Keywords:centralbankdigitalcurrency•banking•generalequilibrium•payments 1.Introduction Severalcentralbanksareconsideringissuingacentralbankdigitalcurrency(CBDC)forretailpayments.1Thekeymotivationsincludedomesticpaymentsefficiencyandsafety,financialinclusion,andfinancialstability. ItiscommonlybelievedthattheintroductionofaCBDCmayhaveprofoundimplicationsfortheeffi-ciencyandstabilityofthemacroeconomy.Inparticular,onefrequentlyraisedpolicyconcernisthataCBDC,bycompetingwithbanksfordepositfunding,couldcrowdoutbankingandreduceoutput—apointdis-cussedinrecentreportsbytheInternationalMonetaryFund(Mancini-Griffolietal.2018)andbytheCommit-teeonPaymentsandMarketInfrastructures(2018)oftheBankforInternationalSettlements(2021).Toinformthispolicydiscussion,thispaperprovidesatheoreticalandquantitativeassessmentofintroducingaCBDC.WeshowthattheconcernthataCBDCcouldcrowdoutbankingisnotwarrantedwhenanappropriatedesignisadopted. WedevelopamodelofpaymentsandbankingtoevaluatethegeneralequilibriumeffectsofintroducingaCBDConbankintermediationandretailtransactions.Inourmodel,banksfinanceinvestmentsbyissuingdepositstohouseholds.Goodsproducedfromthe investmentaresoldtohouseholdsinafrictionalretailmarket.Intheabsenceofperfectcredit,householdsbringaportfolioofcashanddepositstofinancetheset