2023 年中国媒体价格趋势预测

2023ChinaMediaInflationTrendsReport 12thedition,preparedbyR3 RC ww-rthrea.con February2023 Content 1Background&Methodology 2MediaInflationFactors 3MediaInflationForecasts Background&Methodology 2022Inflation&2023Forecasts The12thannualeditionoftheR3ChinaMediaInflationTrendsReportcovers2022actualinflationand2023inflationforecasts. ThisreportfocusesontheoverallmediainflationforecastofdigitalandooHin China,whichaccountforthehighestratioofmediainvestmentintheindustry.R3doesnotrelyonanyonesingledatasource;makingitoneofthemostobjectiveandindependentinflationforecastsavailable. Incompilingthisreport,R3referredtothepublicratecardsof7o0+mediaandbuyingpoliciesof20+agencyholdinggroupsandlocalmediaagencies. D SmarttwRatecards 15300+ HOO 20070 MediaInflationFactors FactorsThatImpactMediaInflation R3evaluatesmediainflationthroughtheperspectiveofthreekeyfactors MacroEconomicEnvironmentTrendsinAdSpendDigitalMediaLandscape China'seconomygrowthrateslowedReductioninadvertisingspendisThecombinedmarketshareofthe butisexpectedtorecoverdrivenbyOOH4DigitalGiantsdeclinedslightly +GDPgrewjust3%in2022as +2022ratecardspendingisexpected •Thefourdigitalgiants(Alibaba,Douyin. lockdownsweighedonactivityand todecreaseby3.8%.Anotabledrop Tencent,Baidujdecreasedtheir confidence,significantlydecliningfrom comparedto12.5%2yOygrowthin combinedmarkotsharefrom72%in 8.1%growthin2021. 2021. 2021Q1-Q3to65%in2022Q1-Q3. +China'sgrowthisexpectedto +Digitalremainsresilentwitha4%a -Thenext12keyplatlorms(agroupof accelerateto4.4%in2023asthe projectedgrowthratein2022.while listedcompanies)combinedshareis economyisexpectedtoberellevedfrompandemic-relatedrestrictions. 00Hmediaspenddecreased22.5% Yoyduring.2o22January-November. 31%oftotaldigitaladrevenuo. R3DRIVIN3TRANSFCFNATIONFORMARKETERB&THERASENCES6 China'sMacroeconomicEnvironment In2o22,duetopandemicrestrictions,consumerconfidencewasweak,negativelyaffectingGDPgrowth China'sGDPannualgrowthratecomparison Affectedbyrecurringpandemicrestrictions,China'sGDP 8.1%growthratesloweddownagainin2022 6.1% 2.2% China'sCcl(consumerconfidenceindex)showednegative 4.4%:growthfromJanuarytoOctober2022,anddroppedbymore 3.0%than25%fromApriltoOctober. 2019vs.20182020vs.20192021ts.20202022is.20212023evs.2022 681%4.38%5.18%9.08 Year-on-yeargrowthrateofChinaConsumerConfidenceIndex(ccl) -285%0.00%STSO0.95%0.588123%1.88%1.06. -3.63% ++ 2021.12021.22021.32021.42021.52021.62021,72021.82021.92021.102021.112021.122022,12022.42022.52022.62022.72022.82022.92022,10 Bot9Scuros:2019-20226ct/aiGDPgrowthrate:MsticnglBuate,:China1lirterCCtAatauafSmnsnesR3DRIVIN3TRANSFCFNATIONFORMARKETERB&THERAGENCES1 ASignificantlyCutOnO0HSpendingIn2022 MediaAggregateRatecard GrowthRateofDigital GrowthRateof spendingwascontracted AdvertisingRevenue OOHInvestment 2022vs.2021Estimation12022Estimation22022January-November1 -3.8%4.0%-22.5% SourBe:CIR 2021vS.2020ShortVideo+10.7% ShortVidecLsers? Suurue:CTR 12.5% 962millicnTraditionalOOH-28.6% eCommerce 7.0% Social 4.0% Search 0.3% 8.3%ofYoYincreas8Media 91.5%oftotalnetizen 2020vs.2019 -9.9% News&vertical& OnlinePaymentUser?904millicn 86oftotalnotizen Natonalonlneretailsales: OfficeLCD3.5% LiftPoster5.0% Cinerma53.8% 2019.vs.2018 11.2% webBrowser4%ofyoyincrease -3.8% OnlineVideo6.6% por1o2022nlemctAmuatgstt:SchNc50Pncpov1 R3DRIVIN3TRAN3FCRNATIONFORMARKETERB&THERAGENCE38 DouyinGroupManagedtoKeep6%GrowthRate whileRest3DigitalGiantsExperiencedADeclinedAdRevenue AdvertisingRevenueof4DigitalGiantsDigitalMediaPublishersMarketShare% AlibabaGroup 6元100% 90. 1%1% 抖音集团 Tencent腾讯 +罚车 -14% +6% 308 301 60% 50% 40% 30% 27% 72% 31% 68% 20% Bai爸百宝QIY-9%10% 爱奇艺0% 2021Q1-Q32022Q1-03 5001.0001.5002,0002,5004DigitalGlants12Ke:PlatformsOthers 2022Q1-Q32021Q1-Q3RMB:100mil 12KeyPlatforms:Kuaishou,JD,Pinduodua,Xiaomi,Meituan,Weibo,Sohu,360,Autdhome,Bilibili,Mango,RED Ronark,odoputfehtersodrererueisfnsanparyfitanaatsateneits,CouyinCcupPEDarefroniR3cstimotio,2AftataGoupTneanountinetuaescustarermenogsteitzeri icete;3.2921Q2-qslaalmarkctagpalreychucitRMS735onn2322G1-qs14legtalrcroiueaE790bion. 9 MediaInflationForecasts 2023MediaInflationHighlights Threekeyinsights OpeningadsonAppsremainthehighestdemandadinventories.Theratecardinflationin2022variedfrom20%-130%acrossRed,weiboandDouyin.Thistrendisexpectedtocontinuein2023. 2 Digitalinvestmentishighlyskewedtodisplayads.VideoplatformkeyplayersTencent andiQiyidramaticalyincreasedtheirratecardpriceofdisplayadsinQ1of2023to boosttheiradrevenue. 3 Digitalpublishersleveragetwowaystoupsellitsadinventories.Intermsofcostmodel,digitalpublisherswilllookatchargingpremiumsforhightraffictimeslotsandexpandingtoavarietyofcreativeadformatsapartfromaregularformat. WRKETERS&THERASENCES11 OpeningAdsAretheHighestCostInflationAdFormat Red,WeiboandDouyinallincreasedtheratecardpriceofopeningadsin2022. ThelevelofcostadjustmentreflectsthemarketpositionofeachAPP.Redincreasedmoderatelyat2o%,whileWeiboincreased37%DouyindoubleditsratecardrateinQ3of2022givenitssizableuserbase. OpeningAdQuarterlyCostIncremental 20