乌拉圭气候冲击的宏观经济影响（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10740 TheMacroeconomicImpactofClimateShocksinUruguay FernandoGiulianoDanielNaviaHeatherRuberl Macroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeMarch2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10740 Abstract Uruguayisaneconomythatisvulnerabletoprecipita-tionpatterns,asevidencedduringthecountry’shistoric2022/23drought.Yet,anddespiteitsrichmacroeconomicandclimatedataenvironment,thecountrydoesnothaveaconsistentmacroeconomicmodeltoaddresstheaggregateimpactofclimateshocks,letalonetheexpectedadditionalimpactfromclimatechange.ThispaperintendstofillthisgapbyintegratingclimateshocksintotheWorldBank’sMacro-FiscalModel,itsworkhorsestructuralmacroeco-nomicprojectionmodel.Buildingonexistingcountrystudiesonthesectoraleffectsofdroughtsandfloods,theanalysisfindsthatthevolatilityofasimulatedUruguayaneconomyonlysubjecttohistoricalclimateshocksreaches22percentofthehistoricalvolatilityofgrossdomesticproduct.Moreover,asclimateshocksareonlyoneofmany shocksthatcansimultaneouslyaffectaneconomy,incor-poratingexogenousmacroeconomicshocksintohistoricalclimateshocksexacerbatesvolatilityandincreasespoten-tiallosses.Grossdomesticproductcanfallby2.3percentunderacombinednegativeclimateandmacroeconomicshockofthetypewitnessedonceeverysixyearsonaverage,and4.1percentunderaonce-in-40-yearscombinednega-tiveshock.Climatechangecompoundstheseeffectsgoingforward,worseningthemagnitudeofthedownsiderisksfromdroughtsbybetween18and30percent,althoughestimatesincorporatingclimatechangearesubjecttolargeuncertainty.TheorderofmagnitudeoftheseeffectscallsforamoresystematicconsiderationofclimateshocksinmacroeconomicprojectionsandfiscalriskassessmentsforUruguay. ThispaperisaproductoftheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatfgiuliano@worldbank.org,dnaviasimon@worldbank.org,andhruberl@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam TheMacroeconomicImpactofClimateShocksinUruguay FernandoGiuliano,DanielNavia,HeatherRuberl§ Keywords:Uruguay;macro-structuralmodel;climateshocks;droughts;floods;climatechange. JELClassification:C10,C50,E37,Q54 §WorldBank;Macroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice.ThispaperwasproducedundertheguidanceofDoerteDoemeland.Theshort-termdistributionalanalysiswasjointlydevelopedwithLourdesRodriguezChamussyandDiegoTuzmanFernandezfromthePovertyandEquityGlobalPractice.TheteamwouldliketothankMarianneFay,DirkHeine,MarianaConteGrand,AnaBucher,LuciaSpinelli,FlorenciaBalestro,CarlosCosta,JulietaSchiro,AndrewBurns,CharlJooste,EdwardBresnyan,PedroValdivia,andFlorentMcIsaac,whoprovidedvaluablefeedbackandadviceatdifferentstagesofthestudy,andMarielenaPerezforherresearchassistance.ThisstudybenefitedfromaclosecollaborationwithUruguayantechnicalteamsattheMinistryofFinanceandtheMinistryofLivestock,Agriculture,andFishing.Theteamwouldliketothankthefollowingcurrentandformergovernmentofficialswhichhelpedimprovethestudy,noneofwhomshouldbeheldaccountableforanymistakesormisinterpretations.AttheMinistryofFinance(inalphabeticalorder):MarceloCaffera,JuanChaves,LuciaHeguy,JuanLabat,GabrielaMiraballes,VictoriaNovas,MariaLuisaOlivera,NicolePerelmuter,MariaTornaria,CarolinaSteneri.AttheMinistryofLivestock,Agriculture,andFishing:ÁngelaCortelezziandVeronicaDuran. 1.Introduction Uruguay,arelativelysmallcountryofapproximately3.4millionpeopleinSouthAmerica,hashistoricallystoodupintheregionforitshighincomepercapita,egalitariansociety,lowpovertylevels,andstrongsocialcompact.AftertwodecadesofcontinuouseconomicgrowthonlyinterruptedbytheCOVID-19pandemic,thecountryranksfirstinLatinAmericaintermsofGDPpercapitaandcurrentlyenjoysthelowestsovereigncountryspreadsintheregion.Uruguayhasrelativelyhighlevelsofwelfare,asmeasuredbyindicatorssuchastheHumanDevelopmentIndex,hasvirtuallyeradicatedextremepoverty,andisknownforitspoliticalandinstitutionalstability. NaturalcapitalliesatthecoreofUruguay’swealthandculture.Uruguayhashistoricallyreliedonlivestockandagriculture(L&A)asthefoundationofitseconomicactivityandnationalidentity.Bythemid-20thcentury,one-thirdofGDPwasdirectlyaccountedforbyL&A,withindustryandservicessplittingtheotherportionequally(BertinoandTajam,1999).Asthecountryadvancedinitsdevelopmentprocess,asl