热门搜索：

The Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare: Niger

2023-02-27IMF张***

TheEffectsofClimateandConflictShocksonHouseholdWelfare Niger YoroDialloSIP/2023/008 IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswithmembercountries.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember6,2022.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReportNo2023/029. 2023 FEB INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND2 ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundSIP/2023/008 IMFSelectedIssuesPaper AfricanDepartment TheEffectsofClimateandConflictShocksonHouseholdWelfarePreparedbyYoroDiallo AuthorizedfordistributionbyCostasChristouDecember2022 IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswithmembercountries.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember6,2022.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReport No2023/029. ABSTRACT:AslivelihoodsinNigerstilldependtoalargeextentonagriculturalproduction,shocksrelatedtoclimatechangeandinsecuritypresentathreatforthecountry’sdevelopmentpathandarethemainsourcesofvulnerabilityforthepopulationinruralareas.Thispaperusesdatafromthelatesthouseholdlivingstandardsurveytoquantifytheeffectsandinteractionsoftheseshocksonhouseholdwelfarebeforeproposingpolicyrecommendationstoenhancetheresilienceofhouseholdsandtheeconomymoregenerally.Ourresultsshowthatwhenrainfalldecreasesbyonestandarddeviation,percapitaincomefallsby11percent.Furthermore,theimpactofshocksonhouseholdsdependsontheiradaptivecapacity,whichincludessufficientagriculturalcapitalandincomediversification.Withoutconcreteadaptationmeasures,vulnerabilitytoclimatechangeisexpectedtoincreaseinNiger,andhumancapitalaccumulationinpoorhouseholdisalsoexpectedtodeteriorateandcouldleadtoapovertytrap. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Yoro,Diallo.2022.TheEffectsofClimateandConflictShocksonHouseholdWelfare.IMFSelectedIssuesPaperSIP/2023/008. JELClassificationNumbers: D12;D13;D74;Q54 Keywords: ClimateShocks;Conflicts;Welfare;Microeconometrics;Niger Author’sE-MailAddress: ydiallo2@imf.org SELECTEDISSUESPAPERS TheEffectsofClimateandConflictShocksonHouseholdWelfare Niger THEEFFECTSOFCLIMATEANDCONFLICTSHOCKSONHOUSEHOLDWELFARE1 AslivelihoodsinNigerstilldependtoalargeextentonagriculturalproduction,shocksrelatedtoclimatechangeandinsecuritypresentathreatforthecountry’sdevelopmentpathandarethemainsourcesofvulnerabilityforthepopulationinruralareas.Thispaperusesdatafromthelatesthouseholdlivingstandardsurveytoquantifytheeffectsandinteractionsoftheseshocksonhouseholdwelfarebeforeproposingpolicyrecommendationstoenhancetheresilienceofhouseholdsandtheeconomymoregenerally.Ourresultsshowthatwhenrainfalldecreasesbyonestandarddeviation,percapitaincomefallsby11percent.Furthermore,theimpactofshocksonhouseholdsdependsontheiradaptivecapacity,whichincludessufficientagriculturalcapitalandincomediversification.Withoutconcreteadaptationmeasures,vulnerabilitytoclimatechangeisexpectedtoincreaseinNiger,andhumancapitalaccumulationinpoorhouseholdisalsoexpectedtodeteriorateandcouldleadtoapovertytrap. A.Background 1.ThecoexistenceofmultipleandregularshocksconstitutesathreattothedevelopmentofNiger.Nigerisdealingwiththeconsequencesofatriplecrisis,arisingfromthecountry'slong-standingsecurityandclimatechange-relatedchallengesand,morerecently,ahealthcrisisassociatedwiththecoronavirusoutbreak(COVID-19)in2020.Shocksrelatedtoinsecurityandclimatechangeareregularanddifficulttocontain.Moreover,climatechangeandinsecurityarelinked.Climatechangecanincreasetheincidenceofconflictbetweensocio-economicgroupsbyincreasingresourcescarcityaswellascompetitionforresources. 2.Theconfluenceoftheseshocksrenderstheeradicationofpovertyextremelydifficult.DevelopmentindicatorsinNigerpointtohighpovertyandinequality,lowhumancapital(figure1),andanuntappeddemographydividend.Closeto41percentofpopulationlivesbelowthepovertylineand83percentofthepopulationislocatedinruralareas.Thepoorarenotevenlydistributedacrossregions.Only7percentofthecapital(Niamey)populationisconsideredpoor,whilemorethan45percentofDosso,Zinder,andMaradipopulationarepoor.Inequalitybetweenregionsandsocioeconomicgroupsisalsodeepenedwithlackofbasicinfrastructureinremoteareas.Thesevulnerabilitiesaredeepenedbythepersistenceofinsecurityandtheconsequencesofclimatechange. 1PreparedByYoroDiallo(AFR).CanghaoChen(AFR)andJoannaDelcambre(StaffAssistantAFRC1)assistedwiththeformattingofthechartsassistedwiththeformattingofthecharts. 4INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND Figure1.Niger:SocioeconomicIndicators Source:WDIandIMFstaffcalculation 3.Jobopportunitiesarelimited,andagricultureremainsthemainsourceofincomeforalargesegmentofthepopulation.Niger’seconomyisnotdiversifiedanddependsprimarilyonrainfedagriculture,whichaccountsfor36.4percentofGDPin2021.Around73percentofthetotalactivepopulationisengagedintheagriculturalsector(figure2)andthesectorremainsmainlybasedonsubsistenceproduction.Themaincultivatedcrops(Rice,Millet,Maize,Sorghum)arevulnerabletoclimatechange,whichdirectlyaffectsquantitiesproducedinperiodofshocks(duringdroughts,forexample),butalsocropyieldsandlaborprodu

点击免费查看完整报告

你可能感兴趣

How do Climate Shocks Affect the Impact of FDI, ODA and Remittances on Economic Growth?

IMF2021-07-23

Tackling the effects of climate change on health in the Mediterranean and surrounding regions. Including assessments from countries in the Middle East, North Africa and the Balkans

国际科学院组织(IAP)2021-10-01

An evaluation of the program on enhancing resilience to natural disasters and the effects of climate change in Bangladesh

国际粮食政策研究所2016-12-15

Food Price Shocks and Household Consumption in Developing Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy

IMF2021-01-15

Untapped Potential: The Role of Local Governments in Locally Led Adaptation. Experiences from the Local Climate Adaptive Living Facility (LoCAL) in Niger, Lesotho, and Cambodia

世界资源研究所2023-08-10