纳米比亚农业灾害风险金融和保险诊断（英）2023

PublicDisclosureAuthorized TRADE,INVEFSINTAMNECNETANDCOMPETITIVENESS PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized FINANCE EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT PublicDisclosureAuthorized NamibiaAgricultureDisasterRiskFinanceandInsuranceDiagnostic AjaiNair,BarryMaher,QhelileNdlovu, AndreaStoppa,ChrisHoveka ©2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW WashingtonDC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent. TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven. Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Coverphoto:iStockRobF73 Contents Acknowledgments vii Foreword ix ExecutiveSummary x 1.IntroductionandCountryContext 1 MacroandSocioeconomicEnvironment 2 AgricultureSector 3 FinancialSector 5 2.DisasterRiskFinance:IntroductionandNamibiaContext 7 Namibia’sDisasterRiskVulnerabilityandImpactofClimateChange 10 InstitutionalFrameworkforDisasterRiskManagementinNamibia 11 StatusofDisasterRiskFinancingInstrumentsinNamibia 13 FinancialProtectionforAgricultureinNamibia 15 3.AgriculturalInsuranceforSmallholdersinNamibia 19 FeaturesofAgriculturalInsuranceProducts 19 PublicandPrivateApproachestoDevelopingAgriculturalInsuranceMarkets 22 TheAgriculturalInsuranceMarketinNamibia 28 MarketSegmentationandPerilIdentification 29 SelectingAppropriateAgriculturalInsuranceProducts 29 ImplementingaNationalAgriculturalInsuranceProgram 32 ProvidingFiscalSupportforaNAIP 33 4.RecommendationsandNextSteps 35 DevelopandAdoptaRisk-LayeredApproachtoDisasterRiskFinancing 35 SupporttheExpansionofAccesstoFinancialServicesforSmallholderFarmers 37 UseDifferentiatedApproachestoProtectSmallholdersandSubsistenceFarmers 37 SupportDevelopmentofIndexInsuranceProductsforLivestockandCrops 38 EstablishaNationalAgriculturalInsuranceProgramasaPPP 38 >>> >>> Contents ProvideAdequateFiscalSupporttotheNAIP39 NextSteps40 References42 AnnexA:OrganizationsMetbytheMission45 AnnexB:DisasterRiskManagementPolicyFramework46 AnnexC:IndicesBasedonDataCollectedviaRemoteSensing47 AnnexD:ParametersforScenarioTesting50 >>> Boxes Box1:BuildingResiliencethroughFinancialInclusion17 Box2:BasisRiskinIndexInsurance21 Box3:InternationalExamplesofGovernmentSupportforAgriculturalInsurance26 Box4:TheKenyanPPPExperienceinDevelopinganAgriculturalInsuranceProgram27 >>> Figures Figure1:LivestockDistributionNorthandSouthoftheVCF4 Figure2:TotalLivestockProductionValueandNumberMarketed5 Figure3:DRFIsaCorePartofDisasterRiskManagement7 Figure4:CountriesinSub-SaharanAfricaThatHaveaDRFStrategyorArePreparingOne8 Figure5:FourCorePrinciplesofDRF9 Figure6:HistoricLivestockLossesDuetoDrought11 Figure7:InstitutionalFrameworkforDisasterRiskManagement12 >>> Figures Figure8:ExistingandProposedDRFMechanismsforAgriculture13 Figure9:TotalFundingandSourcesforDisasterResponsePrograms15 Figure10:EstimatedLossDuetoDroughtversusGRNandHumanitarianDisasterSupport16 Figure11:TotalExpenditureinResponsetoDisasters17 Figure12:RiskLayeringattheHouseholdLevelforCommunalFarmersinNamibia18 Figure13:FinancialInclusionofFarmers18 Figure14:RolesofPublicandPrivateSectorsinDifferentTypesofAgriculturalInsurance Programs23 Figure15:PrivateMarketStructureforAgriculturalInsurancewithNoPublicSupport24 Figure16:PPPOrganizationalStructureforAgriculturalInsurance25 Figure17:PotentialInitialInstitutionalStructureforaNAIPinNamibia32 Figure18:Risk-LayeringApproachwithRecommendedNAIP36 Figure19:AgriculturalInsuranceProductsRecommendedforNamibiaandRelatedInitiatives38 FigureC.1:RelativeEvapotranspirationAnomaliesinNamibiain2019and202148 FigureC.2:SoilMoistureAnomaliesinAfricainJanuary202349 >>> Tables Table1:NextStepstoOperationalizeRecommendationsxiii Table2:Land-UseAreaandNumberofCommunalHouseholdsbySizeofHolding3 Table3:Comparat