23年报点评：业绩符合预期，24年海风进展提速有望受益

JKLM(603606.SH)/L^ _` JKLM23N;Iƒ#2OPQARS24NTUVWXYZ[\] abcd;</=>Iƒ2024N3e23f ƒ"#$%&'()=>?@ABCDE !"ffi$%46.51& 23 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E '()%*+ V-WXY78&Z 7,009 7,310 9,499 11,577 13,952 [\]yoy% -12% 4% 30% 22% 21% ,-./01%S0740522020001 ^_`Y78&Z 842 1,000 1,264 1,727 2,161 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn [\]yoy% -29% 19% 26% 37% 25% a5WbY&Z 1.22 1.45 1.84 2.51 3.14 a5cd9e 0.94 1.73 0.69 1.55 1.98 '()%23 ^fgWb] 15% 16% 18% 20% 21% ,-./01%S0740522040004 P/E 38.0 32.0 25.3 18.5 14.8 P/B 5.8 5.1 4.5 3.7 3.0 Email%wupeng@zts.com.cn hi%a5jklmno56pqrffitQuv5ffiwx2024y3z22[W|ffi FGHI *+,- ./012-3456fi8 !SØ$ %&300 20% 10% 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 9:;< 1DEFGHIJKLM%NMOPQRSTNU 456789:2023;;<=2023>;?@AB73.10C=DE+4.3%=FG HIJ10.00C=DE+18.8%=KIL25.2%=DE+1.5pctM23Q4?@AB1 9.61C=DE+45.8%=NE+18.0%=FGHIJ1.78C=DE+68.6%=NE- 456(785) 688 9:56(785) 688  !ffi(&) 46.51 !;(78&) 31,986 9:!;(78&) 31,986 13.2%=KIL22.5%=DE+1.9pct=NE+1.6pctO 23;PQRSA0T6 IJ0T6782023Q4FGHIJNEUVWX=Y,Z[6\]^PQR_`abcfiefgh=i\]^jklfmnopqPQRrstu=vw0.75CO Bxy06782023Q4?@z[|]Bx10.95C=NE+20.3%M?@_ [|]Bx4.81C~=NE-23.5%M?@_™ÄÅBx3.83C~=NE+219.5%O hÇÉkL]^6782023Q4hÇÉkLNEÑUsÖÜ+0.5pctá=àâäã/åç/é"/è9ÉkL0êë2.6%/2.3%/-0.3%/4.0%O íì2024;3î15ï=78qÇóò78.60C~=àâ_[|]31.60C~= z[|]37.50C~=_™ÄÅ9.50C~O bô)ö6 õhú=2024;ùû_`ü†°¢£[§•¶ß®=_`©™lf´Ä¨mUôsÆ=_`Øú±®b¥aµyQ1Ø`∂ªº/æø¿=s¡78¬I߃O âÛhú=Ü1áùû_`3«L»=… Àt¡MlfÃÕ•¶ŒQœ–_ü†—“”‘3’=qœ–_åç÷©fÿŸ⁄¤ghW=a\¶sÖ_`‹ ›OÜ2á_fi_`ü†flºcfi‡·=q‚„©™aR‰ÂÊÁËÈÍ*ÎÏW=Uôq25;fl)•¶Ì›Oµ78ÓÔ:t”´Ò_fiÚÛ=Ùıâ3Baltica2ü†66kV_[”ˆ˜XlinksFirst/XLCCøù78˘˙”InchCapeü†Uôz¸’=Uô˝˛Ì›ˇIOÜ3á_™!¿#$•¶9b=78%y[n&'()Uc*óò=gha\¶+,‹›O ¬Ig-./m01623_`ü†4aaR=5678789:=gr7824-26;?@FGHIJ0êë12.6/17.3/21.6C~ÜÓg-p24-25;16.7/21.5 78;0 Cá=DE+26%/+37%/+25%=<Ó˘=fi*PE0êë25.3/18.5/14.8>=ÁË ?@x”01O `BsC6±®efghM—DøEMZFG=HIQMnJabefgh’O ¬Ig-K !"#$% ®©:™7£ &'% ®©:™7£ ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ,-!. 2,142 2,112 2,663 3,607 /012 7,310 9,499 11,577 13,952 3145 0 0 0 0 /067 5,467 7,281 8,691 10,395 3189 2,684 3,488 4,251 5,123 :.;<= 49 47 57 68 >?89 79 105 126 150 @ABC 153 198 237 283 D, 2,148 2,860 3,414 4,083 EFBC 130 169 202 241 GH!" 554 719 877 1,057 IJBC 270 351 419 500 KLMN!" 864 1,097 1,318 1,570 OPBC 8 16 14 9 MN!"G) 7,917 9,662 11,772 14,534 QCRSTU -99 -30 -30 -30 KLVWX! 17 17 17 17 !"RSTU -29 -10 -5 -5 VWYZX! 48 48 48 48 [\]S^N1_ 9 10 10 10 `a!" 1,925 1,874 1,837 1,813 X!1_ 3 6 8 6 bcde 197 277 347 407 KL1_ 33 28 31 29 fg!" 364 381 396 410 /0&' 1,151 1,440 1,970 2,466 KLhMN!" 172 173 175 176 /0i12 0 1 0 1 hMN!"G) 2,723 2,771 2,820 2,870 /0ijk 5 3 3 4 !"G) 10,640 12,432 14,592 17,404 &'lm 1,146 1,438 1,967 2,463 nWo9 0 0 0 0 pq: 146 174 240 302 3?45 1,442 1,882 2,201 2,580 r&' 1,000 1,264 1,727 2,161 3?89 807 1,053 1,232 1,444 stYuT_ 0 0 0 0 >19v 0 0 1 1 wxy[zr&' 1,000 1,264 1,727 2,161 GH#$ 853 950 1,135 1,340 NOPLAT 1,007 1,279 1,739 2,169 KL3?9 25 25 25 25 EPS[|]~Y7ŠÅ1.451.842.513.14 Ç*ÉÑWÖhMN#$ 467 467 467 467 KLMN#$ 207 238 271 310 ÜáOPàâ MN#$G) 3,801 4,615 5,331 6,167 ()*+20232024E2025E2026E VWo9 353 353 353 453 6Väã 3?$å 0 0 0 0 /012çVâ 4.3% 29.9% 21.9% 20.5% KLhMN#$ 195 295 295 295 EBITçVâ 17.6% 26.0% 36.3% 24.8% hMN#$G) 549 649 649 749 wy[zr&'çVâ 18.7% 26.4% 36.7% 25.1% #$G) 4,349 5,263 5,979 6,916 é&äã wxy[zpèêZ_ 6,291 7,169 8,612 10,488 ë&â 25.2% 23.4% 24.9% 25.5% stYuZ_ 0 0 0 0 r&â 13.7% 13.3% 14.9% 15.5% pèêZ_G) 6,291 7,169 8,612 10,488 ROE 15.9% 17.6% 20.1% 20.6% #$íYuZ_10,64012,43214,59217,404 ROIC 16.6% 18.3% 21.1% 21.7% ì$äã î.Mï%®©:™7£ !"#$â 40.9% 42.3% 41.0% 39.7% ()*+20232024E2025E2026E $PZ_à 16.1% 15.6% 13.0% 11.6% ñ/óNî.M 1,190 473 1,069 1,358 MNàâ 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 î.1_ 1,169 1,470 1,929 2,357 òNàâ 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 D,ôö -827 -712 -554 -669 /õäã ñ/ú31ôö -218 -820 -778 -892 l!"ùûâ 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 ñ/ú3?ôö 586 686 499 591 3189ùûüt 124 117 120 121 KLôö 480 -151 -26 -29 3?89ùûüt 51 46 47 46 X!óNî.M -596 -221 -219 -221 D,ùûüt 114 124 130 130 !7jk -533 -236 -236 -236 †Y°¢[£Å YZX! -21 0 0 0 †Y1_ 1.45 1.84 2.51 3.14 KLVW!"^§ -42 15 17 15 †Yñ/î.M 1.73 0.69 1.55 1.97 •!óNî.M -561 -282 -298 -194 †Yr!" 9.15 10.42 12.52 15.25 o9ç= -349 0 0 100 ¶Sàâ Y&;&ßj? -206 -211 -280 -348 P/E 32.0 25.3 18.5 14.8 Yu•! 0 0 0 0 P/B 5.1 4.5 3.7 3.0 KLôö -6 -71 -18 54 EV/EBITDA 40 32 24 20 !"#Wind$%&'()*+ FGƒ"gh# 78;0 01 L. ˘M01 @x ghNO6~12PîûcfiDhQR2STUq15%l1 ‹Ë ghNO6~12PîûcfiDhQR2STUq5%~15%(Ç ËU ghNO6~12PîûcfiDhQR2STUq-10%~+5%(Ç oË ghNO6~12PîûcfiDhQR2SVUq10%l1 W901 ‹Ë ghNO6~12PîûfiDhQR2STUq10%l1 ⣠ghNO6~12PîûfiDhQR2STUq-10%~+10%(Ç oË ghNO6~12PîûfiDhQR2SVUq10%l1 ºX6013Rë<Y9:ï)*6~12Pîû78˘=ÜZW92SácfiDhQR2S*cfiÚÛK@OàâA˘ÚÛl[œ3002SëQRM\]ÀÚÛl]ÀÂ2Ü^fi_`ab3*áZ]ÀcÚ2SÜ^ficÚab3*áëQRMdeÚÛlfghiIâù2SëQR=j˘ÚÛl3k5002SZlmvnop2SëQRÜiUL.*qfiáO Ø"ø$% 78;0 âr„s˘tU°78ÜlWuv?Ê78”áwUâù„sxyåçz[|]~*„s/mSÄ9"mHOÊ<YÅÇÊ78*ÉÑÖkOÊ78e|[ÜBáBwÊ<YµààëÉÑO Ê<YQâÊ78fàèäá[ˆë~j*7´mGZ?ã7èmG=åçéèê*èäë;=í®ìî”Éë‰7&=ïñe˛óòô]]*öõZúùOÊ78í®ûe‚„ü†j0*R¢£‰£8£=§Ê<Yâ*mG”õ•”g-¶åç<Yß®7´9:©*™´=~J|¨©78OÊ78fiÊ<YVPj0~