Towards a Resilience Index for Pacific Island Nations (RIPIN)

TowardsaResilienceIndexforPacificIslandNations(RIPIN) Aruphastakenthefirststeptowardsdevelopingaresilienceindextofocusactionandsupportto improveresilienceoflowlyingPacificIslandNationstosealevelrise. Theworld’sclimateischanging.SealevelriseinthewesterntropicalareasofthePacificOceaniscurrentlyfourtimestheglobalaverage1.Manyatolls inthePacificarelessthan5mabovesealevelandarehometothousandswhofeelconnectedwithboththeirlandandocean.Achangingclimatewillaffecttheirphysicalenvironment,customsandculture. Meansealevelsarepredictedtoincreasebetween0.26mand0.82mby2100dependingonglobalemissions,mainlyduetothermalexpansionandglacialmelt2.ThesealevelalsovariesfromwesttoeastacrossthePacificOceanoftenforyearsordecadesduetochangingtradewindsaffectedbyElNiño-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)2. Thereismoreuncertaintyaboutfrequencyandintensityofshorttermextremesealevels,affectedbyclimateandnon-climatefactors(seefiguresoverleaf).Thesearecausedby threecomponents: •Short-termweathereventssuchascyclonesandstormsurges.Tropicalcyclonesareprojectedtodecreaseinfrequencybutincreaseinseverity,whichincreasesthepotentialforextremedamage4. •Tides(kingtidesintheregioncanbeashighas3.2m3)and; •Seasonalorlonger-termfluctuationscausedbyseacurrentsandsurfacewatertemperaturesaffectingwind,temperatureandrainfallsuchasENSO. Sealevelrisecausescoastalinundation,whichmayresultindamagetoland-basedinfrastructureandcriticalassets, salinisationofgroundwater,damagetoagriculturalland,housesandsitesofculturalsignificance.Ultimately,itmaymeanrelocationisrequired. Above:AnislandinPalau Phase1:InitialReview Phase2:VulnerabilityRanking Phase3:UnderstandResilienceandVulnerability Approach NationProfile UnderstandingtheProblem NationProfile UnderstandingtheProblem NationProfile UnderstandingtheProblem Metric Population >500people Futureprojectedsealevelrise >39cm4ormaximumelevation<500m GDPpercapita Populationdensity Ratioofcoastlinelengthtolandarea TbdwithreferencetotheCityResilienceIndex Locationofphysical&socio-economicassets.Plausiblerangeofsealevels&hazardfrequency. Adequacyoffloodprotectionsystems. PeopleImpacted AdaptiveCapacity AdaptiveCapacity Hazards VulnerabiltiyContext Impact VulnerabilityinDetail Figure1:ResilienceIndex(RIPIN)approach ©JodieGatfield,AusAID RIPINProcess Arupundertookaninitialliteraturereviewtounderstandtheexistingknowledgebasewithregardtothisissue.Usingthisevidence,wehavebeguntodevelopathreestageprocesstounderstandtheresilienceandvulnerabilityofspecificPacificIslandNations(seefigure1): Phase1:Wedrewupalonglistofthemostphysicallyvulnerableislandsintheregionbasedonanaffectedpopulationofover500,andlowlyingislandsunder500mabovesealevelorthosethatareprojectedtohaveaboveaveragesealevelrisefortheregion,asshowninfigure2. Phase2:Weadaptedanexistingapproachforaninternationalvulnerabilityindex,developedbyBarnett&Adger,20036andappliedittothelonglist.ThemostvulnerableislandsarethosewithalowGDP/captia,highpopulationdensityandhighlengthofcoastlinecomparedtoarea. Phase3:Anoutlinehasbeendevelopedandfurtherworkwillberequiredtoassessthisstageindetail.Seepage4formoredetails. Figure2:Sealevelriseprojectionsforthe(medium)emissionsscenario2081–2100relativeto1981–2000(Source:adaptedfromPacificClimateChangeScienceProgram,20115) Figure3Theimpactofwind,tide,storms,andclimatefeatures(sourcePACCSAP)7 Above:Kirabatiin2009 MostVulnerableLeastVulnerable Tokelau FederationStatesofMicronesia MarshallIslands Tuvalu Kiribati Nauru Guam Palau Vanuatu EastTimor Niue Figure4Resiliencedemandassessmentranking RIPIN:ResilienceDemandAssessmentRanking “ifwesaveTuvalu,wesavetheworld” EneleSoseneSopoaga,PrimeMinisterofTuvalu Inthisinitialassessment,theislandsthathavethebiggestresiliencedemandarethosewithalowGDPpercapita,highpopulationdensityand/oralongcoastline(seefigure4).Thelessresilientnationsaredescribedbelow,andparticularlyvulnerableatolls,whicharemainurbancentresofnationsrated4and5,aredescribedtotheright. 1:Tokelauhas3atollswithamaximumelevationof5mwithapredominantlyruralpopulationof1,300people,supportedbytheirsubsistenceeconomy.TokelauisreliantonaidfromNewZealand,whoprovides80%ofthegovernmentbudgettomaintainpublicservices. 2:FederatedStatesofMicronesiaismadeupof607islandswithapopulationof105,000,mostofwhomrelyonsubsistencefishingandagriculture.Thegovernment,whichemploystwo-thirdsofthepopulation,isover50%dependantonUSaid. 3:MarshallIslandshas24inhabitedatolls,withapopulationof73,000,but40%ofthepopulationliveinthecapitalMajuro.Itshighestpointis10mabovesealevelandmuchoftheeconomyisdependentonaid8. 4:FunafutiisanatollandthenationalcapitalofTuvalu,withapopulationofover6,000peopleresidingonanatollwitha maximumelevationof4.6m.OfTuvalu’s18,900mofvulnerablecoastline,9,000m,oralmost50%,isinFunafuti9. InMarch2015,CyclonePam,acategory5storm,causeddevastationtothepeople,economyandenvironmentofTuvalu,KiribatiandVanuatu.InTuvalu45%ofthepopulationweredisplaced,anddamagestocoastalinfrastructure,watersupply,andcroplandtotalledUS$10million:ap