Future of Highways

FutureofHighways ArupForesight+Research+Innovation Foresight+Research+InnovationisArup’sinternalthink-tankandconsultancywhichdealswiththefutureofthebuiltenvironmentandsocietyatlarge.WeserveArup’sglobalbusinessaswellasexternalclientsfromabroadrangeofregionsandsectors.Wehelpourorganisationsunderstandtrends,explorenewideas,andradicallyrethinkthefutureoftheirbusinesses. Wedevelopedtheconceptof‘foresightbydesign’,whichusesinnovativedesigntoolsandtechniquestobringnewideastolifeandengageclientsandstakeholdersinmeaningfulconversationsaboutchange. Contacts TonyMarshall GlobalHighwaysBusinessLeadertony.marshall@arup.com ChrisLuebkeman GlobalDirector,Foresight+Research+Innovationchris.luebkeman@arup.com MarcusMorrell SeniorAnalyst,Foresight+Research+Innovationmarcus.morrell@arup.com LynneGoulding Analyst,Foresight+Research+Innovationlynne.goulding@arup.com CoverImage:©RobHouse ReleasedNovember2014 Contents Foreword5 Introduction7 Megatrends9 UserJourneys25 Conclusion53 Contributors54 References56 Publications58 Acknowledgements59 13FitzroyStreetLondonW1T4BQarup.comdriversofchange.com ©Arup2014 Clickonsectiontitletonavigate Foreword TonyMarshall GlobalHighwaysBusinessLeader,Arup Inthefuture,highwaysandtransportinfrastructurewillfaceincreasingpressuresandimpactsfromarangeofissuesincludingchangingweatherpatterns,populationgrowth,capacityconstraints,shortagesoflandandcapital,andrapidlychangingtechnologies thatoutstripthepaceofnewinfrastructuredevelopment. Thinkingaboutthesetrendsandissues,aswellasnewconceptsandemergingsolutions,willhelpusbetterunderstandthelong-termchallengesandwillhopefullyalsoinspireinnovationacrossthesector. Fordevelopedcities,transportinfrastructuremayberepurposedandadaptedtoaccommodategreenermodesoftravel. Motorisedtravelincitieswillberequiredtofitinto,ratherthanbeatthecentreof,planningdecisions.Indevelopingcountries,rapidpopulationgrowthandtheriseindemandformobilitywillrequirepoliciesandmeasurestoavoidrepeatingthemistakesofthedevelopedworld.Thiswilltakeforesightaswellasstrongleadership. ©Arup Advancedtechnologiessuchasautonomousvehicles,lightermaterialsandintelligenttransportsolutionswillallplayapartinmanagingtheincreaseinpassengerandfreightmobility.Changingtravelbehaviourswillalsohaveasignificantimpactonthetransportsolutionsofthefuture.As moreeffectiveuseismadeofthebigdataassociatedwithourtransportnetworks,therewillbeincreasingacceptabilityofnewownershipmodels,rapidgainsinthequalityoftravelplanning,andincreasingly sophisticatedcustomerdecision-makingtoolsandcapabilities. Thelong-termgoalwillbetocreateanintegratedtransportnetworkwithseamlessconnectionstomultiplemodes,includingcars,buses,rail,andnon-motorisedtransport.Bythinkingacrossmodes,wecanmovetowardsaconnected,low-carbonfuture. Theaimofthisreportistolookbeyondday-to-daychallengesandthinkabouttheforcesdrivingchange,andhowthesemightshapetheroadsandhighwaysofthefuture.Bypushingtheboundariesinthinkingaboutwhatispossibleinhighwaysdesign,thehopeisthattheroadsofthefuturewillcontinuetoprovidebenefitsforeconomicgrowth,productivityandconnectivitywhileminimisinganynegativeimpactsassociatedwithhighwayconstructionandoperation. Introduction “Thefutureisalreadyhere—it’sjustnotevenlydistributed” —WilliamGibson Goodqualityhighwaysinfrastructure,includingroads,tunnels,bridges,buildingsandutilities,bringsaboutawiderangeofeconomicandlifestylebenefits.Highwaysattractbusinessandpromotesocialwellbeingbyprovidingaccesstojobs,services,leisureactivitiesandconnectivitytoothertransportmodes.However,thelimitationsofroadinfrastructure,particularlyincities,isevidentwhereovercrowdingandcongestioncancausecostlydelays,pollutionandothernegativeexternalities. Althoughvehiclesandtechnology haveadvanceddramaticallyoverthepast40years,roadwayshavearguablyfailedtoevolveatthesamerapidpace,especiallyfromtheuserperspective.Thisischanging,asnewtechnologieshavethepotentialtomakeradicalchangestotheconstruction,managementandefficiencyofroad infrastructure.Consequently,theroadsofthefuturemaylookandperformverydifferentlytotoday. ©localecology.org Whatwillhighwayslooklikeinthefuture?Howwilltheycopeinaworldexperiencingarisingdemandformobilityandfreightcapacity?Inanageofrapideconomic,political,social,environmentalandtechnologicalchange,thefutureisfarfromcertain.Butwecanexplorepossiblefuturesbasedoncurrenttrendsandtrajectoriesaswellasemergingideasandsolutions. Thisthought-piecemovesbeyondtheday-to-dayfocusoncurrentchallengesandopportunitiesandexplorestheforcesthatArupbelievesmayshapehighwaysandtheuseoftransportinfrastructureinthefuture. Firstly,thisreportlooksatthemacro-forcesthatwilldrivechangesinhighwaydesign.Megatrendssuchasclimatechangewillimpelenvironmentalimprovements inconstructionmaterials,constructiontechniquesandinfrastructureresilience.Technologicalchangessuchasconnectedinfrastructure,vehicle-to-vehiclecommunication,smartlogistics,newmaterialsandnewpowertrainsarealsolikelytoimpactthedesignandconstructionofroads.Changinguserbehavioursandpreferences,aswellasnewwaystofinance infrastru