Autonomous, connected, electric and shared vehicles

Autonomous,connected,electricandsharedvehicles Reimaginingtransporttodriveeconomicgrowth Contents ExecutiveSummary 1.Introduction 2.Financialimplicationsandeconomicgrowth 3.Mobilityasaservice 4.Electrification 5.Infrastructure 6.Testing 7.Datamanagementandtransparency 8.Dataarbitrationandgovernance 9.Dataaggregation 10.Theroleofgovernment 11.Arup’scapability 12.TheMagnificentSeven|Whatneedstohappennext Formoreinformationcontact Dr.JohnMcCarthy Leader,IntelligentMobility t+35312334359 ejohn.mccarthy@arup.com DavidO’Keeffe Director,DigitalServices t+35312335745 edavid.okeeffe@arup.com ExecutiveSummary Ireland’sopportunityforhigh-calibrejobcreationinaglobalmarket Anewmobilityrevolutionissweepingtheglobe.Theintroductionofdisruptive technologiessuchasconnectedandautonomousvehicles(CAVs)iscompellingustoreimaginehowtransportisdeliveredandpromising aneweraofsafe,secureandenjoyabletransport.CAVsarealreadybeingtestedandusedworldwide,withbothtraditionalplayersandnewautomotiveentrants,suchasAppleandGoogle,lookingtohaveproduction-levelvehiclesdeployedby2021. Thispresentsuswithasignificantchallenge.Whatwasoncethefutureisnowareality,puttingIrelandunderrealpressuretoconsiderhowwemanageandtakeadvantageofthisnewtechnology. Ontheupside,thisrevolutionalsocreatesahugeopportunity.TheglobalmarketforCAVtechnologiesispredictedtobeworth€70bn[1]by2035.Thisdoesnotincludeancillaryelectricandmobilityservices,forwhichstaggeringgrowthisforecast.Asthismarketwillbeunderpinnedbytheavailabilityofreliable,quality-assuredandtrustworthydataandinformation,itisclearthatjobswillbecreatednotonlyinhardwaremanufacturingbutalsoindataservicesthatsupportCAVtechnologies. ThismeansthatthetechnologysectorinIrelandisideallyplacedtoplayaleadingroleinthisburgeoningmarket. 'TIIiskeenlyawareoftheneedtounderstandtheimpactnewtechnologies,suchasConnectedandAutonomousvehicles,couldhavefortheroadnetwork,thetravelpatternsofpeople andthemovementofgoods.ThepotentialimplicationsofCAVsareimportanttoconsiderwhenassessingIreland'scurrentandfuturetransportinfrastructuralneeds.’ HelenHughes,DirectorofProfessionalServices, TransportInfrastructureIreland 1.Introduction Mostofusarefamiliarwiththeconceptofautonomousandelectricvehicles,butfewerareawareoftechnologiesrelatingtosharingmobilityservicesandconnectingdatabetweenvehiclesandtheirenvironment.Manyofthese innovations,knowncollectivelyasautonomous,connected,electricandshared(ACES)technologies,areinearlystagesofdevelopmentandcommercialisation. Aheadofthepackareconnectedandautonomousvehicles(CAVs),whicharelikelytobecomeacommonfeatureofIrishroadswithinthenextdecade.Asthesevehicleshaveenormousimplicationsforourtransportsysteminthe shortterm,weconcentrateinthispaperontheconnectedandautonomous,ratherthanelectricandshared,aspectsofACEStechnologies. 1.1Autonomousvehicles 90%ofalltrafficcollisionsarecausedbyhumanerror[2]:thevehicle’sdrivertakingthewrongdecisionatthewrongtime,resultingindisastrousand,alltoooften,life-ending collisions.Theseeventscanhaveacatastrophicimpactnotjustontheindividualsinvolvedandtheirfamiliesbutalsoonthewidercommunity.Withupto190peoplekilledeveryyearintrafficcollisionsontheIrishroads,nottomentionover5,000collisionscausinginjuryandthosethatgounreported[3],thereisa hugeincentivetoeliminatetheerrorsleadingtotheseevents.Coupledtothehumancostistheeconomicimpact,wherecollisionscausesignificantdelaytothetravellingpublic,createcongestionandtailbacks,andimpedethedeliveryofgoodsandservices. Whatiftherewasanalternative?Whatiftechnologyandtheuseofdriver-assistedsystemscouldeliminate90%oftrafficcollisionsbyremovinghumanerror?Thatisthepossibilityofferedbyautonomousvehicles(AVs). AnAVisavehiclecapableofdecidingonandtakingacourseofaction,suchassteering orbraking,withouttheneedforhumanintervention.Differentlevelsofautonomyexist,reflectingthetechnologyavailableonthemarketandthemixtureoffeaturesdeployed. Thediagramoppositeoutlinestheselevelsandwhattheymeanfromahumandriver’s perspective.Currenttechnologyhasmaturedtosomewherebetween2.5and4. AVsarereceivingahugeamountofattentionglobally,withbothcountriesandcompaniesinvestingbillionsindeliveringinfrastructureanddataservicestoensuretheirsuccess. Accelerateddevelopmentsareongoingandtestsitesarespringingupacrosstheglobe,fromtheUKtotheNetherlands,ScandinaviatoNewZealandandAustraliatotheUS,ascompaniesseekreal-worldenvironmentsinwhichtotestthelatestversionsofthesevehicles.TimelinesassociatedwithAVdeploymentarevariedbutalargenumberofmanufacturersarefocusedondeliveringvehiclesby2021[4].Thismeansthat,inunderfiveyears’time,AVswillbecoming offtheproductionlinereadyforuseonourroad network.Irelandisonthecuspofmajorchange. ThequestioniswhetherweasacountryarepositionedtotakeadvantageofAVstomanageourroadnetworkmoresafelyandefficientlythaneverbeforewhile,atthesametime,deliveringsuperiorcustomerservicetothetravellingpublic. Level5 Fulldriverlessautomation Level4 Fullautomationincertainsituationswithoutdriver controlorintervention mindoff mindoff Level3Fullautomationincertainsituationswithoutd