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新冠肺炎、停课和学生学习结果：PISA的新全球证据（英）

文化传媒2024-01-01世界银行张***

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Policy Research Working Paper 10666, authored by Maciej Jakubowski, Tomasz Gajderowicz, and Harry Patrinos, examines the effects of school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic on student learning outcomes globally. The paper utilizes data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), an international large-scale assessment administered every three years since 2000.

Key Findings:

Global Impact of School Closures: The pandemic led to significant disruption in schooling worldwide, with an average of 5.5 months (equivalent to two-thirds of an academic year) of school closures globally. The duration varied significantly across regions, ranging from 1 month in Oceania to 5 months in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Learning Losses: Due to school closures, there was an estimated 14% decrease in student learning outcomes, approximately equivalent to seven months of education. This decline was influenced by factors such as the duration of closures, gender, immigration status, and socioeconomic status.
Variability by Region and Duration: Countries with shorter closures experienced smaller learning losses, while those with longer closures faced more substantial impacts. Specifically, closures lasting up to 25 weeks led to losses equivalent to around 13% of a standard deviation in student achievement, which increased to about 20% for countries with the longest closures.
Gender and Immigrant Status Disparities: The learning losses were greater for boys and students with an immigrant background. Each week of full school closures was associated with a 0.15-0.17-point decrease in achievement for boys, and a similar increase for longer durations. For students with an immigrant background, every week of full school closures led to a 0.33-point decrease in achievement.
Achievement Level Disparities: Quantile regression analyses revealed significant differences in learning losses between students at different achievement levels. In countries with average-length closures, learning losses were similar for low-, average-, and high-achieving students. However, in countries with short closures, the best-performing students lost less, with the decline primarily observed among average- and low-achievers. In contrast, in countries with long closures, learning losses were more pronounced for high-achieving students.
Correlation with PISA Rankings: The paper suggests that countries with the longest school closures tended to have lower PISA scores, indicating a correlation between the duration of closures and overall educational performance.

This study underscores the significant impact of school closures on student learning outcomes and highlights disparities based on demographic factors and regional differences in closure duration. The findings suggest that longer and more extensive school closures have a more profound effect on learning, particularly for high-achieving students in countries with lower overall educational performance.

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10666 COVID-19,SchoolClosures,andStudentLearningOutcomes NewGlobalEvidencefromPISA MaciejJakubowskiTomaszGajderowiczHarryPatrinos EducationGlobalPracticeJanuary2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10666 Abstract TheCOVID-19pandemicresultedinsignificantdisrup-tioninschoolingworldwide.Thispaperusesglobaltestscoredatatoestimatelearninglosses.ItmodelstheeffectofschoolclosuresonachievementbypredictingthedeviationofthemostrecentresultsfromalineartrendusingdatafromallroundsoftheProgrammeforInternationalStudent Assessment.Scoresdeclinedbyanaverageof14percentofastandarddeviation,roughlyequaltosevenmonthsoflearning.Lossesweregreaterforstudentsinschoolsthatfacedrelativelylongerclosures,boys,immigrants,anddis-advantagedstudents.Educationallossesmaytranslateintosignificantnationalincomelossesovertime. ThispaperisaproductoftheEducationGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedathpatrinos@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam COVID-19,SchoolClosures,andStudentLearningOutcomes:NewGlobalEvidencefromPISA MaciejJakubowski UniversityofWarsaw TomaszGajderowicz UniversityofWarsaw HarryPatrinos1 WorldBank JELNo:I19,I20 Keywords:COVID-19;learningloss;studentachievement;PISA;internationallarge-scaleassessments 1MaciejJakubowski,FacultyofEconomicSciences,UniversityofWarsaw,Warsaw,Poland(mjakubowski@uw.edu.pl);TomaszGajderowicz,FacultyofEconomicSciences,UniversityofWarsaw,Warsaw,Poland(tgajderowicz@wne.uw.edu.pl);HarryAnthonyPatrinos,WorldBank,WashingtonDC,USA(hpatrinos@worldbank.org). 1.Introduction SchoolsthroughouttheworldclosedinresponsetoCOVID-19beginningin2020.Insomecases,theyquicklyreopenedin2021,butinsomecountries,theyremainedclosedlonger(Patrinos2023).Globally,schoolswereclosedforanaverageof5.5months(22weeks)sincetheonsetofthepandemic,equivalenttotwo-thirdsofanacademicyear,whenlocalizedschoolclosuresareconsidered(UNESCO2023a).Thedurationvariesbyregion,fromjustonemonthinOceania,to2.5months(10weeks)inEurope,toasmanyas5months(20weeks)inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.Earlyon,theschoolclosureswereexpectedtocontributetowhatwasalreadydescribedasalearningcrisis(Angristetal.2021;WorldBank2017). Countrystudiesshowlargelosses(Alasinoetal.2024;Betthäuseretal.2023;CarlanaandLaFerrara2023;DonnellyandPatrinos2021;Engzelletal.2021;Hammersteinetal.2021;JackandOster2023;Jacketal2022;MaldonadoandDeWitte2022;Zierer2021).Onaverage,schoolclosuresinducedbyCOVID-19ledtoalearninglossof0.17ofastandarddeviation–thatis,atleastone-thirdofayear’sworthoflearning(Patrinosetal.2023).Distancelearningduringtheschoolclosuresdoesnotseemtohavehelpedverymuch(Haelermansetal.2022;Singhetal.2022);onlythedurationofschoolclosuresledtovariations.Moststudiesobserveincreasesininequalitywherecertaindemographicsofstudentsexperiencedlearninglossesthatweremoresignificantthanothers.Theselearninglossescouldtranslatetoearningslossesandcouldcostthisgenerationofstudentstrillionsofdollars(Psacharopoulosetal.2021). Also,globalstudies–thatis,studiesusingdatafrominternationalassessmentswherestudentsinmanycountriestakethesametestsandunderthesameconditions,thus,makingthemcomparableacrosscountryandtime–documentsignificantlearninglosses(Jakubowskietal2023;KennedyandStrietholt2023).Internationalreadingscoresdeclinedanaverageof 33percentofastandarddeviation,equivalenttomorethanayearofschooling.Lossesaregreaterfordisadvantagedstudents,thosestrugglingbeforethepandemic,andbyduration.However,untilnow,therehasonlybeenoneinternationalstudentassessment.Itcoveredonlyfourthgradestudentsinjust55countries. Inthispaperweexaminetheimpactofschoolingdisruptionsonstudentreading,mathematics,andsciencescoresusinglarge-scale,internationallycomparablestudentachievementtestsfromtheOECD’sProgrammeforInternationalStudentAssessment(PISA)study.Theseassessmentsareconductedeverythreeyearssince2000,withthelatestimplementationin2022collectingstudentresultsaftertheschoolclosurescausedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Overall,thedataexploredinthisstudyrepresent175million15-year-oldstudentsin72countries.Bycombiningdatafrompreviousroundsandthepost-COVIDroundforcountriesthathaveover-timedata,wecanseetheevolutionofmathematicsandsciencescoresbeforeandafterCOVID-19.Wemodelthe

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