新冠肺炎、停课和学生学习结果：PISA的新全球证据（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10666 COVID-19,SchoolClosures,andStudentLearningOutcomes NewGlobalEvidencefromPISA MaciejJakubowskiTomaszGajderowiczHarryPatrinos EducationGlobalPracticeJanuary2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10666 Abstract TheCOVID-19pandemicresultedinsignificantdisrup-tioninschoolingworldwide.Thispaperusesglobaltestscoredatatoestimatelearninglosses.ItmodelstheeffectofschoolclosuresonachievementbypredictingthedeviationofthemostrecentresultsfromalineartrendusingdatafromallroundsoftheProgrammeforInternationalStudent Assessment.Scoresdeclinedbyanaverageof14percentofastandarddeviation,roughlyequaltosevenmonthsoflearning.Lossesweregreaterforstudentsinschoolsthatfacedrelativelylongerclosures,boys,immigrants,anddis-advantagedstudents.Educationallossesmaytranslateintosignificantnationalincomelossesovertime. ThispaperisaproductoftheEducationGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedathpatrinos@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam COVID-19,SchoolClosures,andStudentLearningOutcomes:NewGlobalEvidencefromPISA MaciejJakubowski UniversityofWarsaw TomaszGajderowicz UniversityofWarsaw HarryPatrinos1 WorldBank JELNo:I19,I20 Keywords:COVID-19;learningloss;studentachievement;PISA;internationallarge-scaleassessments 1MaciejJakubowski,FacultyofEconomicSciences,UniversityofWarsaw,Warsaw,Poland(mjakubowski@uw.edu.pl);TomaszGajderowicz,FacultyofEconomicSciences,UniversityofWarsaw,Warsaw,Poland(tgajderowicz@wne.uw.edu.pl);HarryAnthonyPatrinos,WorldBank,WashingtonDC,USA(hpatrinos@worldbank.org). 1.Introduction SchoolsthroughouttheworldclosedinresponsetoCOVID-19beginningin2020.Insomecases,theyquicklyreopenedin2021,butinsomecountries,theyremainedclosedlonger(Patrinos2023).Globally,schoolswereclosedforanaverageof5.5months(22weeks)sincetheonsetofthepandemic,equivalenttotwo-thirdsofanacademicyear,whenlocalizedschoolclosuresareconsidered(UNESCO2023a).Thedurationvariesbyregion,fromjustonemonthinOceania,to2.5months(10weeks)inEurope,toasmanyas5months(20weeks)inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.Earlyon,theschoolclosureswereexpectedtocontributetowhatwasalreadydescribedasalearningcrisis(Angristetal.2021;WorldBank2017). Countrystudiesshowlargelosses(Alasinoetal.2024;Betthäuseretal.2023;CarlanaandLaFerrara2023;DonnellyandPatrinos2021;Engzelletal.2021;Hammersteinetal.2021;JackandOster2023;Jacketal2022;MaldonadoandDeWitte2022;Zierer2021).Onaverage,schoolclosuresinducedbyCOVID-19ledtoalearninglossof0.17ofastandarddeviation–thatis,atleastone-thirdofayear’sworthoflearning(Patrinosetal.2023).Distancelearningduringtheschoolclosuresdoesnotseemtohavehelpedverymuch(Haelermansetal.2022;Singhetal.2022);onlythedurationofschoolclosuresledtovariations.Moststudiesobserveincreasesininequalitywherecertaindemographicsofstudentsexperiencedlearninglossesthatweremoresignificantthanothers.Theselearninglossescouldtranslatetoearningslossesandcouldcostthisgenerationofstudentstrillionsofdollars(Psacharopoulosetal.2021). Also,globalstudies–thatis,studiesusingdatafrominternationalassessmentswherestudentsinmanycountriestakethesametestsandunderthesameconditions,thus,makingthemcomparableacrosscountryandtime–documentsignificantlearninglosses(Jakubowskietal2023;KennedyandStrietholt2023).Internationalreadingscoresdeclinedanaverageof 33percentofastandarddeviation,equivalenttomorethanayearofschooling.Lossesaregreaterfordisadvantagedstudents,thosestrugglingbeforethepandemic,andbyduration.However,untilnow,therehasonlybeenoneinternationalstudentassessment.Itcoveredonlyfourthgradestudentsinjust55countries. Inthispaperweexaminetheimpactofschoolingdisruptionsonstudentreading,mathematics,andsciencescoresusinglarge-scale,internationallycomparablestudentachievementtestsfromtheOECD’sProgrammeforInternationalStudentAssessment(PISA)study.Theseassessmentsareconductedeverythreeyearssince2000,withthelatestimplementationin2022collectingstudentresultsaftertheschoolclosurescausedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Overall,thedataexploredinthisstudyrepresent175million15-year-oldstudentsin72countries.Bycombiningdatafrompreviousroundsandthepost-COVIDroundforcountriesthathaveover-timedata,wecanseetheevolutionofmathematicsandsciencescoresbeforeandafterCOVID-19.Wemodelthe