美联储观察员 ： 推迟降息定价 ， QT 消息参差不齐

Deutsche Bank's Fed Watcher research suggests that the bank is pushing back on the pricing of rate cuts, as the Fed is more confident that it is closer to its goal of 2% inflation, but needs more information over the coming months. The bank is also aware of overtightening risks and the potential for financial conditions to remain restrictive. The bank's economist suggests that the Fed should be methodical and careful when making rate cuts, and that there is no need to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past. The bank is also watching scheduled CPI revisions and is aware of the potential for stronger economic activity, worse labor market balance, and stalling progress on disinflation to delay or dampen the expectation for rate cuts this year. The bank estimates that the equilibrium reserve level could be around 10-11% of GDP.