习惯“平庸的经济基本面”和“慢下来的增长节奏”

1 22 I2024 10CPI 20111290 2024 12 FOMC 11 CPI 2024 PCE 122-126 7.14-7.24 7.20 Z0017101 1..........................................................................................1 1.1..............................................................................1 1.2..........................................................................2 1.2.1.............................................................................................2 1.2.2.............................................................................................3 1.2.3.............................................................................................3 2.................................................................................................4 2.1-..................................................................4 2.2.......................................................................4 2.2.1.....................................................................................4 2.2.2.....................................................................................5 2.2.3..................................................................................7 2.2.4..................................................................................8 2.3..................................................................................8 2.3.1...................................................................8 2.3.2...............................................................9 3........................................................................................10 3.1.................................................................10 3.2...................................................................................14 3.3..........................................................15 ...........................................................................................16 ..................................................................................................17 ……………………………………………………………………………….18 .........................................................................................................19 ......................................................................................................19 1.1.1 ..................................................................................................1 1.1.120241215.....2 1.1.2 .....................................................................2 2.1.1 ...............................................................................................4 2.2.1 ..........................................................4 2.2.2 ..............................................................4 2.2.3 ..........................................................5 2.2.4 ................................................................................6 2.2.5 % ..............................................................7 2.2.6 .....................................................................7 2.2.7 NDF USDCNH .........................................................................8 2.2.8 USDCNY 25Delta %..........................8 2.3.1 ...............................................9 2.3.2 .........................................................................9 2.3.3 ...............................................9 2.3.4 .........................................................................9 3.3.1 2024.1.8-1.12 ..................................15 1 .................................16 2 % ..................................................................17 3 ...................................................18 4 Shibor % ............................................................................18 5 SOFR % .............................................................................18 6%.................................................................................19 7....................................................................................19 1. ( BIS 7.1050 7.1174 7.1084 7.1167 0.165% USDCNY7.1622 7.1966 7.1721 7.1938 0.441% USDCNH7.1693 7.2177 7.1774 7.2111 0.583% 144.8358 148.3901 145.7683 148.2116 2.331% 1.0960 1.0947 1.0858 1.0887 -0.668% 1.2746 1.2728 1.2654 1.2675 -0.554% 102.4487 103.4048 102.5912 103.2362 0.769% CFETS98.02 —— —— 98.76 0.755% 103.09 —— —— 103.89 0.776% 93.40 —— —— 93.72 0.343% 1.1 2024115119 11916:30 CFETSBISSDR 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 7.18 7.19 7.20 7.1999 7.20 7.2322 7.2111 1.1.12024115 119 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 7.40 7.35 109.00 7.30 107.00 7.25 105.00 7.20 7.15 7.10 103.00 101.00 7.05 2023-09-152023-10-152023-11-152023-12-15 99.00 : iFinD 1.2 1.2.1 2024 12 FOMC CPI 11 2024117 2024 PCE 7.14-7.24 122-126 7.20 1.2.2 1.2.3 2. - 2.1 119 7.1167117 2.1.1 1 2 1173504-359-3028 RefinitivBloomberg 2.2.1 2.2.2 212900168-3047 0.100 0.050 0.000 (0.050) (0.100) (0.150) (0.200) 0.16000 0.14000 0.12000 0.10000 0.08000 0.06000 0.04000 0.02000 0.00000