中国12月金融数据点评

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：SECLicense[2012]No.669 ChinaDecemberfinancialdatacommentary 中国12月金融数据点评 刘道钰LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.:F3061482ConsultingNo.:Z0016422 桂晨曦GuiChenxiQualificationNo.:F3023159ConsultingNo.:Z0013632 2024/01/17 DATA December(expected) November October September AFRE(flow),100millionyuan 19400(20600) 24500 18500 41200 OutstandingAFREYoY% 9.5(9.6) 9.4 9.3 9.0 M2YoY% 9.7(10.1) 10.0 10.3 10.3 AFRE:AggregateFinancingtotheRealEconomy 1）12月社融增长略有加快，结构表现分化。12月社融存量同比增速提高0.1个百分点至9.5%，主要因为政府债券净融资增长较快。12月企业债券融资与居民贷款均低于过去5年的中位数水平，反映居民与企业融资需求仍偏弱。2）未来几个月社融增速可能大体稳定，但万亿国债增发对经济的拉动效果将逐步显现出来。 1)DecemberAFREgrewfaster,withdifferentiatedstructuralperformance.TheoutstandingAFREincreasedby9.5%YoY,0.1%higherthanlastmonth,mainlyduetotherapidgrowthofgovernmentbondfinancing.Bothcorporatebondfinancingandhouseholdloanswerelowerthanthemedianlevelofpastfiveyears,indicatingthatthedemandforfinancingfromhouseholdsandenterpriseswasstillweak. 2)ThegrowthrateofoutstandingAFREmaybestableinthenextfewmonths,buttheeffectoftheadditionalissuanceof1trilliontreasurybondontheeconomywillgraduallyemerge. OutstandingAFREYoY%M2YoY% 14 13 AFRE(flow),bycategory,100millionyuanChangesofAFREcomparedwiththemedian -100001000030000 12AFRE(flow) 11 RMBloanstothereal 10economy 9Corporatebonds 8 7Governmentbonds -2625 -4792 89 280 19400 11050 9279 Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 WeightedaverageinterestrateofinterbankRMBlending% 5541 RMBloans(flow)fromfinancialinstitutions,bycategory,100millionyuan ChangesofRMBloanscomparedwiththe 7-dayreversereporate% median -10000010000 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 RMBloans(flow)fromfinancialinstitutions LoanstohouseholdsHouseholds:mid& long-termloansLoanstoenterprises Enterprises:mid& -2283 -2096 300 2221 1462 2963 11700 8916 8612 Jan-22Jun-22Nov-22Apr-23Sep-23 long-termloans 4634 Sources:Wind,CITICSF ImportantReminder：Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport. 重要提示：本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Disclaimer:Unlessotherwisespecified,CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.possessesthecopyrightand/orotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreport.Withoutauthorization,nocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopied.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.makesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,orcompletenessoftheinformation,viewpoints,anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCo.,Ltd. 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议。