预计 2023E 收益稳健 ； 更高的自由流通股将提升估值

10Jan2024 CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate HorizonCD(9930HK) Expectsolid2023Eearnings;Higherfreefloattoboostvaluation HorizonCDwillrelease2023Eearningson12Mar.WeexpectHorizonCDtodelivercorenetprofitofRMB1bn(+20%YoY).Giventhetransformationtoasset-lightmodel,weexpectHorizonCDsubstantiallyscaledbackthecapexin2023Eto~RMB1bn(fromourpreviousforecastof>RMB4bn).Whilewetrimourearningsforecastby3%/12%in2024E/25Eonlowercapexassumptions,weseestrongerfreecashflowgoingforward,whichpotentiallyhelpsreducethenetdebt/equityratioto106%byend-2025E(versus159%asatend-Jun2023).WeseeoverseasasanewgrowthdriverasHorizonCDtargetstoestablish20serviceoutletsin2024E(upfromfivein2023E).Inthenearterm,thedistributionofHorizon’sshareson16JanbyFarEastHorizon(3360HK,BUY,coveredbyFinanceteam)willpotentiallyboosttradingvolumeandvaluation.MaintainBUYwithanewTPofHK$5.2. 2023Eearningspreview:Weforecastrevenuegrowthof13%YoY,onthebackoffastgrowingplatformservicerevenue.ExcludingthelistingexpenseaswellastheinterestexpenseandFXchangefromtheredemptionliabilitiesonpre-IPOinvestment,weestimatecorenetprofitofRMB1bn. GrowthofAWPfleetsizethroughre-renting.WeexpectHorizonCDhasbuiltupafleetof180kunitsbyend-2023E,including~50unitsentrustedbyotherequipmentowners(i.e.re-renting).WeforecastHorizontoadd30-50kunitsin2024E,whichwillbelargelybyre-renting. TargetPrice HK$5.20 (PreviousTP HK$4.80) Up/Downside 15.8% CurrentPrice HK$4.49 WayneFUNG,CFA(852)39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn) 14,355.6 Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn) 0.4 52wHigh/Low(HK$) NA/NA TotalIssuedShares(mn) 3197.2 Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureFarEastHorizon 66.7% Source:HKExSharePerformance Absolute Relative 1-mth 18.2% 19.2% 3-mth 4.9% 13.5% 6-mth 70.1% 92.9% Source:FactSet ChinaCapitalGoods Overseasexpansionagrowth driver.WeestimateHorizonCD establishedfiveserviceoutletsinoverseasin2023E.HorizonCDhas alreadystartedofferingoperatingleaseservicesinsomeoverseasareas.Horizontargetstotaketheoverseasserviceoutletsnumberto20in2024E,coveringregionssuchasSaudiArabia,Turkey,Dubaietc.WeunderstandthatthepricinginsomeoverseasmarketsismuchhigherthanthatinChina. Higherfreefloattoboostturnover.FarEastHorizonisthecontrollingshareholderofHorizonCD.IntheEGMheldinlateDec,shareholdersofFarEastHorizonapprovedtheplantodistribute160mnsharesofHorizonCDthroughspecialdividend.Every27sharesheldbyFarEastHorizon’sshareholderwillbeeligibletoobtainoneshareofHorizonCD.Theshares(5%ofHorizon’stotalo/sshares)willbedistributedon16Jan. MaintainBUY.WereviseupourTPtoHK$5.2(previouslyHK$4.8),basedon13xP/Ewhichisequivalenttothetwo-yearaverageofHuatie(603300CH,NR),themajorpeerofHorizonCD.OurhigherTPistoreflect(1)therolloverofvaluationbaseto2024E,(2)thelowerriskofbalancesheetasaresultoftheadoptionofasset-lightmodel,and(3)betterliquidity. EarningsSummary(YE31Dec) FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Revenue(RMBmn) 6,141 7,878 8,933 10,499 11,857 YoYgrowth(%) 67.6 28.3 13.4 17.5 12.9 Adjustednetprofit(RMBmn) 736.8 836.7 1,006.2 1,284.7 1,574.9 EPS(Adjusted)(RMB) 0.26 0.30 0.33 0.40 0.49 ConsensusEPS(RMB) na na 0.33 0.39 0.49 P/E(x) na na 13.4 10.3 8.4 P/B(x) na na 1.5 1.3 1.1 Yield(%) na na 1.1 1.5 1.8 ROE(%) 12.5 10.5 11.8 13.4 14.5 Netgearing(%) 287.9 286.4 178.3 140.4 105.5 Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates 12-mthPricePerformance Source:FactSet Relatedreports: HorizonCD-1H23coreprofit+10%YoY;positiveonthestructuralgrowthandmgmt.execution–9Aug2023(link) HorizonCD-No.1equipmentoperationserviceproviderreadytocapturetheopportunitiesinAWP–5Jul2023(link) PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1 Figure1:Changeinkeyoperatingassumptions 2023 Old 2024 2025 2023 New 2024 2025 2023E Change2024E 2025E Revenue(RMBmn) Operatingleaseservices 5,997 6,976 8,237 5,119 5,980 6,473 -14.6% -14.3% -21.4% Engineeringandtechnicalservices 2,991 4,038 5,250 2,436 2,728 3,055 -18.6% -32.4% -41.8% Platformandotherservices 882 1,323 1,719 1,378 1,791 2,328 56.3% 35.4% 35.4% Totalrevenue 9,870 12,337 15,206 8,933 10,499 11,857 -9.5% -14.9% -22.0% Grossmargin ppt Operatingleaseservices 45.0% 45.5% 46.0% 41.0% 42.0% 42.0% -4.0 -3.5 -4.0 Engineeringandtechnicalservices 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 Platformandotherservices 31.5% 31.0% 30.5% 37.0% 36.0% 36.0% 5.5 5.0 5.5 Blended 39.2% 38.9% 38.7% 36.8% 37.3% 37.2% -2.4 -1.5 -1.5 Keyexpenseratios ppt S&Dexpenses 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% -1.8 -1.5 -1.5 Administrativeexpenses 11.0% 10.8% 10.5% 10.7% 10.8% 10.7% -0.3 0.0 0.2 Expectedcreditlossesoffinancial&contractassets,net 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.5 0.5 0.5 Netfinanceexpense(RMBmn) -1,050 -1,114 -1,178 -840 -687 -593 -20.0% -38.3% -49.6% Reportednetprofit 967 1,320 1,788 926 1,285 1,575 -4.3% -2.7% -11.9% Corenetprofit 1,047 1,320 1,788 1,006 1,285 1,575 -3.9% -2.7% -11.9% Source:Companydata,CMBIGMestimates Figure2:Revenueforecast (RMBmn)14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2020202120222023E2024E2025E 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figur