12月非农就业数据点评：美元指数还会继续上行吗？

9 I 1 8 2024 9 12 ? 20111290 12 12 202311 12 Z0017101 1.12....................................................................................1 1.13..........................................1 1.2..........................................2 1.2.1...........................2 1.2.2.......................4 1.2.3..........................................6 2.........................................................7 10 1.1.1:12 ..............................................................................................................................1 1.1.2:CMEFedWatch 2024 3 .1 1.2.1: ...................................2 1.2.2: 20231110 ....................................3 1.2.1:12 .4 1.2.3: 12 ....................................5 1.2.4: 12 4.1%............................5 2.1.1 2024.1.8-1.12 ....................................8 1.12 3 1.1 12 CMEFedWatch 20243 10 10 23:00 12 ISM PMI 12 1.1.1:12 10 Bloomberg 1.1.2:CMEFedWatch 20243 CME 1.2 1.2.1 202312 17 15 11 19.9 21.6 17.3 10 10.5 1.2.1: 1000.00 900.00 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 : : 0.00 : : 3MMA iFinD 1.2.2: 202311 10 1000.00250.00 900.00 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 -50.00 -100.00 -150.00 0.00-200.00 : : : :: iFinD 12 11 12?I202418 1.2.1:12 iFinD 12 3.7% 3.8% 11 4.1% 0.3% 3.9% 62.8% 4% 2024 2024 1.2.2 12 1.2.3: 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 iFinD 1.2.4: 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 iFinD 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 % 2021-07 12 2021-09 % 2021-11 2022-01 2022-03 2022-05 CPI: 2022-07 4.1% 2022-09 % 2022-11 rhs 2023-01 % 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 5 2023-11 2020-12 12 2021-02 2021-04 2021-06 2021-08 2021-10 2021-12 2022-02 2022-04 ? 2022-06 2022-08 2022-10 2022-12 2023-02 2023-04 2023-06 2023-08 I2024 2023-10 18 63.00 62.80 62.60 62.40 62.20 62.00 61.80 61.60 61.40 61.20 61.00 2023-12 1.2.3 12 1 12 112 3 12 2. 202311 12 12PMI 11JOLTs 12ISM 12PMI 7 2.1.1 2024.1.8-1.12 BloombergWind 12?I202418 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net APP 603093