全球持续增产 天气决定成败

投资咨询业务资格证监许可[2011年]1444号 @⨹ᤷ3໔ӝཟ≊ߩᇐᡆ䍛 㜗䙴ҁF3088707Z001964㚊㌱^:ᶞ3㓥F03108891 㺂᛻ኋᵑ 04ᒪ㋋㊱ffi®ཝᾸ⦽hᢢы½,Q½с½,人䇗cᒪ¾ᮦ䘆㺂 ॰䰪:䉼㋋[3000,400]ݹ/ਫ਼;㨒㋋[00,3800]ݹ/ਫ਼˚ ѱ㾷‰u 1.»¾d䈰¿½с঍㗄ཝ䉼1Mᵕ™൞ཟ¿⛈֒ਥ㜳½,Ѧӝ人ᵕ™½,a᮪։ѦӝᾸ⦽ԃ䖹ཝ,䴶ᤷ3“⌞ཟ¿⣬߫˚ .人䇗4ᒪØGཝ䉼ӝ䠅уᯣࡑ᯦儎,cƒཝ䉼໔ӝ,ਖAA㨒㊳ঌু᱄ᱴ,࠰¤䘑ᓜ㕉ម,4ᒪ㋋㊱᮪։ב㔏ॷ࠼ݻR˚ 3.ള޻ཝ䉼䘑¤໔M,ু῞䠅➠ᤷ3K஺,㨒㊳ב㔏ݻR,ള޻ ㋋㊱ᓉ™➠ᢵু˚ਖAള޻ޱ⇌࡟⏜у֩,㋋㊱䴶ƒ䖹␻␗,᯳ু㋋ ㊱ffi®˚ ㆌ⮛᧞½ “⌞঍㗄ཟ¿⛈֒ⲺڐD0ՐRѦӝ䙆⑆᱄№Ⲻڐグ0Ր˚ ™䲟¼⽰ 1.঍㗄ཟ¿⛈֒уR人ᵕ˚ .㔅3㺦䘶™䲟ᖧଃ㋋㊱䴶ƒ˚ QфⒸҁPஎ -Ƚ2023ᒪ㺂᛻®亴 ㋋㊱ᵕ䍝ⴎA᮪։ᶛⵁ,03ᒪԛᶛ㋋㊱ⴎAo⧦hс䐂߃1⏞ᴶы߃с㺂Ⲻ䘆㺂䏁¾˚ ޭ։ᶛⵁcᒪ㋋㊱䘆㺂ѱ㾷࠼Dԛс഑Ѡffi½: ㅢ-ffi½:1–ᴾԳ㋋㊱o⧦с㺂䏁¾,ᐸ൰¿㗄㚊۞A0人ᵕȽ⎭ཌ䬬㺂ধ0Ƚ㗄ള䍝ᐷ᭵ㆌሲkⲺ㔅3㺦䘶人ᵕㅿᇅ¾½ູഖ㍖ᖧଃ,ਖA঍㗄ཝ䉼Ѧӝ,cƒཝ䉼᮪։בᓊݻR,ള޻㋋㊱䴶ƒㄥ‡⧦⯨¾,ᓉ ™½‰〥㍥,ⴎA㕰҅L᫇,ԛੇс䘆㺂Dѱ˚ ㅢӂffi½:6–8ᴾ㋋㊱o1㺂䏁¾,ޣᴾᔶခы,㗄䉼䘑ޛཟ¿⛈֒ ᰬᵕ,ӝ॰¿ᒨᰧཟ¿ᖧଃ,᯦֒Վp⦽ᤷ3сã=D10ᒪ™Øᴶք0ᒩ,Q“㋋㊱ⴎA1⏞,↚ཌ,6ᴾᓋUGDA䎻人ᵕཝ‰с䈹㗄䉼gЫA〥4007㤧ӟ,ᐸ൰fi᯦֒ӝ䠅ӝ1᣻ᘝ,®ᗍ㋋㊱ⴎA߃⅗ཝ‰1㺂˚8ᴾᵕ䰪ഖ㗄䉼ӝ॰Ⲻཟ¿߃⅗਎ᗍ⛄✣ᒨᰧ,ཟ¿ƒ0Q“ᐸ൰ঋӝ⛈֒,ਜཌള޻⑥¤ⲺỶƒ᭵ㆌ䈹᮪ሲk½⑥K䘕ㅿഖ㍖ᖧଃс,㋋㊱ⴎA㔝3 ᮪։1⏞˚ ㅢпffi½:9–11ᴾⴎA䖢1䘑ޛс㺂㺂᛻,㗄䉼ӝ䠅䙆⑆᱄№,ࠅӝ ‰ᓜуR人ᵕ,↚ཌ,Aᤵཝ㔕䇗ቶޢᐹⲺ3ᒪA㨒㊳ӝ䠅人Ыࠅ‰ҕք†ᐸ൰人ᵕ,ᐸ൰⛈֒᛻㔠䲃⑟,㋋㊱o⧦څᕧ䘆㺂˚ ഴ1:䉼㋋¾ᮦᒪ޻h¾ 䍺ᯏᶛⓆ:Wind,Q½ᵕ䍝½䍺૞䈘ᙱ䜞 ഴ:㨒㋋¾ᮦᒪ޻h¾ 䍺ᯏᶛⓆ:Wind,Q½ᵕ䍝½䍺૞䈘ᙱ䜞 ӂȽcƒב㔏⣬߫ .1㗄䉼໔ӝグ,ØGཝ䉼ӝ䠅уᯣࡑ᯦儎,঍㗄4)cƒཝ䉼໔ӝԄUGDA11ᴾᣛ઀ᶛⵁ,03/4ᒪᓜcƒཝ䉼ᙱӝ䠅人ᵕ䎻4ӵਫ਼, 䖹1ᒪᓜ1⏞8.10%,঩3/4ᒪᓜཝ䉼ӝ䠅Րᴿ䖹ཝ¼ƒ˚1Ԅⴤࢃᮦ ᦤᶛⵁ,㗄ള3ᒪཝ䉼ӝ䠅൞gЫA〥ࠅቇԛRঋӝᮦᦤ-㡢Ⲻ᛻߫сѦӝ人ᵕะᵢグ˚31,䘏ԃу㜳K਎04ᒪᓜcƒ⋯¾⋯ᯏ人ᵕᶴⲺ⣬ᘷ,ᐸ൰➠ᑂᵑᇺᢎ൞ØGཝ䉼Ⲻӝ䠅໔M1,ታ㇗ØGⴤࢃཟ¿ԃ™у⺤¿½,aØGⲺཝ‰ᓜѦӝⲺ人ᵕᖾ䳴“1ṯᵢ½䖢਎˚ഖ↚ਥԛ人䇗൞঍㗄ཝ䉼໔ӝⲺ᛻߫с,3/4ᒪᓜcƒཝ䉼ӝ䠅ԃ➠ᱴ㪍໔A, ᮪։ཝ䉼ב㔏ݻR˚ ‡1:USDAཝ䉼ב䴶ᒩ㇠cƒ:ཝ䉼(67ਫ਼3 017/18 018/19 019/0 00/1 01/ 0/3 0CT03/4 N0V03/4 ᵕDᓉ™ 9.6 98.7 114.10 94.73 100.0 98.67 101.89 100.31 ӝ䠅 341.6 361.06 339.89 368.44 3.69 370.4 399.0 400.4 䘑¤ 13.00 14.10 164.97 16.49 14.41 16.0 16.7 16.7 ু῞⎾䍯 94.90 97.86 31.48 31.43 314.69 313.31 38.49 39.47 ള޻ᙱ⎾䍯 338.3 343.4 38.40 363.76 363.8 364.87 383.8 383.68 ࠰¤ 13.07 148.4 16.06 164.86 14.18 168.37 168.4 168.9 ᵕ$ᓉ™ 98.81 113.04 9.48 100.0 9.38 101.04 11.6 114.1 ᓉ™⎾䍯“ 9.0% 3.91% 6.64% 7.0% .41% 7.69% 30.17% 䍺ᯏᶛⓆ:UGDA,Q½ᵕ䍝½䍺૞䈘ᙱ䜞 QфⒸҁPஎ ‡1:USDAཝ䉼ב䴶ᒩã‡(33 㗄ള:ཝ䉼(67ਫ਼3 017/18 018/19 019/0 00/1 01/ 0/3 0CT03/4 N0V03/4 ᵕDᓉ™ 8.1 11.9 4.74 14.8 6.99 7.47 7.30 7.30 ӝ䠅 10.07 10. 96.67 114.7 11.3 116.38 111.70 11.39 䘑¤ 0.9 0.38 0.4 0.4 0.43 0.4 0.8 0.8 ু῞⎾䍯 .93 6.94 8.91 8.6 9.98 60.4 6.60 6.60 ള޻ᙱ⎾䍯 8.87 60.40 61.8 60.91 6.78 63.69 66.08 66.06 ࠰¤ 8.07 47.68 4.70 61.67 8.7 4.84 47.76 47.76 ᵕ$ᓉ™ 11.9 4.74 14.8 6.99 7.4 .86 .98 6.68 ᓉ™⎾䍯“ 0.% 40.96% 3.09% 11.48% 11.87% 9.0% 9.0% 10.11% Qള:ཝ䉼(67ਫ਼3 017/18 018/19 019/0 00/1 01/ 0/3 0CT03/4 N0V03/4 ᵕDᓉ™ 0.1 3.06 19.46 4.61 31.16 30.3 36.80 33.79 ӝ䠅 1.8 1.97 18.10 19.60 16.40 0.8 0.0 0.0 䘑¤ 94.10 8.4 98.3 99.76 90.00 98.00 100.00 100.00 ু῞⎾䍯 90.00 8.00 91.0 93.00 87.00 91.00 97.00 98.00 ള޻ᙱ⎾䍯 106.30 10.00 109.0 11.74 106.7 11.70 10.00 10.0 ࠰¤ 0.13 0.1 0.09 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 ᵕ$ᓉ™ 3.06 19.46 6.80 31.16 30.74 3.80 37.0 33.69 ᓉ™⎾䍯“ 1.69% 19.08% 4.4% 7.64% 8.80% 31.77% 31.00% 7.96% 䱵ṯᔭ:ཝ䉼(67ਫ਼3 017/18 018/19 019/0 00/1 01/ 0/3 0CT03/4 N0V03/4 ᵕDᓉ™ 7.00 3.73 8.89 6.6 .06 3.90 17.0 17.1 ӝ䠅 37.80 .30 48.80 46.0 44.00 7.00 48.00 48.00 䘑¤ 4.70 6.41 4.88 4.8 3.8 8.30 .70 .70 ু῞⎾䍯 36.93 40.7 38.77 40.16 39.7 31.0 34.0 34.0 ള޻ᙱ⎾䍯 43.63 47.4 4.9 47.41 46.96 37.7 41.7 41.7 ࠰¤ .13 9.10 10.00 .0 .80 3.30 4.60 4.60 ᵕ$ᓉ™ 3.73 8.89 6.6 .06 3.1 18.1 4.8 4.6 ᓉ™⎾䍯“ 4.39% 60.89% 8.04% .86% 49.30% 48.08% 9.% 8.83% ØG:ཝ䉼(67ਫ਼3 017/18 018/19 019/0 00/1 01/ 0/3 0CT03/4 N0V03/4 ᵕDᓉ™ 33.1 3.70 3.47 0.4 9.40 7.60 31.4 33.44 ӝ䠅 1.00 119.70 18.0 139.0 17.00 1.00 163.00 163.00 䘑¤ 0.18 0.14 0. 1.0 0. 0.0 0.4 0.4 ু῞⎾䍯 44.1 4.3 46.74 46.68 1.00 3. .7 .7 ള޻ᙱ⎾䍯 46.1 4.18 49.39 49.88 4. 7.00 9.70 9.70 ࠰¤ 76.14 74.9 9.14 81.6 79. 93.00 97.0 97.0 ᵕ$ᓉ™ 3.74 3.77 0.00 9.40 3.16 33.10 37.70 39.69 ᓉ™⎾䍯“ 70.39% 7.3% 40.49% 8.94% 4.69% 8.07% 63.1% 66.48% 䍺ᯏᶛⓆ:UGDA,Q½ᵕ䍝½䍺૞䈘ᙱ䜞 ޭ։ᶛⵁ,㗄ളӝ॰SA,ffi⵶᭬ࢨуᯣ᧞䘑,㗄䉼ᴶ㓾ӝ䠅᛻߫ะᵢ⺤¿,㲳3↚⅗UGDAᣛ઀㗄䉼ঋӝᴿᡶ1䈹,Ԅ49.6㫨ᕅd/㤧ӟSg=49.9㫨ᕅd/㤧ӟ,a6ᴾⲺgЫA〥䎻人ᵕс䈹fi㗄䉼ᴶ㓾ӝ䠅ⲺᖧଃAཝ,ⴤࢃ㗄䉼ᙱӝ䠅人䇗D41ӵ㫨ᕅd,䖹1ᒪᓜࠅቇ4%,䳴ԛ ¼בcƒཝ䉼ӝ䠅໔M˚ ঍㗄ӝ॰SA,ØGӝ॰UGDA11ᴾ人䇗03/4ᒪᓜØGཝ䉼gЫA〥人䇗D4307ޢ亭(1.118ӵ㤧ӟ3,gЫA〥ੂ“໔M.%˚᯦ :ØGཝ䉼ӝ䠅൞ᰝ֒6ӵਫ਼ⲺѦӝะ⹶1߃1⏞3.8%,䗴½1.63ӵਫ਼ӝ䠅,ਖA33447ਫ਼ⲺᵕDᓉ™,03/4ᒪᓜØGཝ䉼ᙱב㔏ਥԛ䎻1.96ӵਫ਼˚DӑᒪØGཝ䉼ב㔏ᤷ3໔M,LDC人ᵕ04/ØGཝ䉼ӝ䠅➠߃⅗䗴½™Ø᯦儎,=1.6–1.7ӵਫ਼˚䱵ṯᔭӝ॰⭧†1ᒪᓜཝ‰ࠅӝ,ࠅӝ‰ᓜ儎䗴43%,ӻᇔ⧦007ਫ਼ᴶ㓾ӝ䠅,UGDA人䇗᯦ :䱵ṯᔭཝ䉼ӝ䠅➠Sgfᑮ0ᒩ,䗴½48007ਫ਼,䖹1ᒪᓜཝ‰໔ӝ9%˚LDC䘑-½人䇗4/ᒪ䱵ṯᔭӝ䠅¼†4700–0007ਫ਼,“3ᓜ߃໔A00–30007ਫ਼˚൞㗄ളཝ䉼໔䠅уR人ᵕⲺ᛻߫с,঍㗄ᡆcƒཝ䉼ב㔏໔Mѱ)‡,൞ཝ䉼¿ffiᵹSA➠䙆⑆¼ƒ˚ ഴ3:ØGཝ䉼ӝ䠅(ƒਫ਼3ഴ4:䱵ṯᔭཝ䉼ӝ䠅(ƒਫ਼3 䍺ᯏᶛⓆ:LDC,Q½ᵕ䍝½䍺૞䈘ᙱ䜞 .A㨒㊳ঌু᱄ᱴ,࠰¤䘑ᓜ㕉ម Aᤵཝ㨒㊳SA,Aᤵཝh™䜞11ᴾ㔪ᤷ03/4ᒪᓜAᤵཝ⋯㨒 ㊳人䇗ב䴶ᮦᦤу਎,¾Qӝ䠅17377ਫ਼,1ᒪ18707ਫ਼;࠰¤7707ਫ਼,1ᒪ797ਫ਼;ള޻)䠅1077ਫ਼,1ᒪ10697ਫ਼;ᵕ$ᓉ™1007ਫ਼,“1ᒪࠅቇ07ਫ਼˚Aᤵཝ㨒㊳᭬㧭㔉ᶕ,ӝ॰ঌু᱄ᱴ,ⴤࢃAᤵཝ㨒㊳࠰¤䘑ᓜ᮪։څម,ѱ㾷൞†cƒ㨒㊳䴶ƒ䠅с䲃,¾QQളfiAᤵཝ㨒㊳⋯Ⲻ䘑¤ᙛ࢝с䲃,ӝ“࠰¤ু)څཝ,Aᤵཝ㨒㊳ⲺCNFffi®࠰⧦ཝ‰с䐂˚4ᒪDᶛⵁ,cƒ㨒㊳:㢸½בᓊݻR˚ 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024(9$3 2023/2024(10$3 №ࡁ ࣪ࡁ gࠛவ॥(Ԟz½) 9016 8659 8936 8936 277 0 ݶੂவ॥(Ԟz½) 8949 8596 8844 8844 248 0 ԥф(⩰/z½) 1.59 2.17 1.96 1.96 0 0 ф୏(Ԟ⩰) 14248 18695 17368 17368 -1327 0 䘋ਓ䟿(ƒ੘3 105 126 100 100 -26 0 õ҈ځ୏(Ԟ⩰) 16129 20149 18974 18974 -1175 0 [Д୏(Ԟ⩰) 5248 7954 7700 7700 -254 0 伏⭘৺ᐕ±⭘䟿(ƒ੘3 8555 9961 10000 10000 39 0 楑ऀՃ݃৴(Ԟ⩰) 935 663 223 223 -440 0 ֢ӄõ஬ࡌ(Ԟ⩰) 9553 10689 10274 10274 -415 0 ߊ$ڀ؂(Ԟ⩰) 1328 1506 1000 1000 -506 0 ᓃ⎸∄ 8.97% 8.08% 5.56% 5.56% - - ‡2:Aᤵཝ㨒㊳ב䴶ᒩ㇠䍺ᯏᶛⓆ:Aᤵཝh™䜞,Q½ᵕ䍝½䍺૞䈘ᙱ䜞 пȽ»¾d䈰fiཝ䉼ӝ䠅ᖧଃ 3.1»¾d䈰᜾╊᜾3,人䇗ᤷ3=04ᒪ-:ᓜ 㗄ളള$⎭⍁Aཝ¿㇗⨼ቶ(N0AA)⎾0ᱴ⽰,»¾d䈰⧦$人䇗➠ᤷ3½्ঀƒߢ:,1Aᱥ100%Ⲻ0⦽Ԅ03ᒪ1ᤷ3=04ᒪᴾ,䘏½ᰬ䰪ᕰᓜ»¾d䈰⧦$“1Ⲻ0⦽儎䗴73%˚䲚↚