中美经济周期非同步下与国际金融格局

CMF3rdInternationalSeminaronMacroeconomics TheNon-synchronizationofChineseandU.S.BusinessCyclesand InternationalFinancialLandscape Reporter:Prof.KaiLiuOct28,2023 Organizers:NationalAcademyofDevelopmentandStrategy,RUCSchoolofEconomics,RenminUniversityofChina ChinaChengXinInternationalCreditRatingCo.Ltd.CCXI Undertaker:InstituteofEconomics,RenminUniversityofChina Content I.Non-synchronizationofChineseandU.S.BusinessCycles II.ImpactsonInternationalFinancialMarketsandChineseMacroeconomy III.SuggestionsandOutlooks Content I.Non-synchronizationofChineseandU.S.BusinessCycles II.ImpactsonInternationalFinancialMarketsandChineseMacroeconomy III.SuggestionsandOutlooks •Overthepastfewyears,particularlysincetheonsetofthepandemic,ChinaandtheUnitedStateshavebeenconfrontedwithdifferentmacroeconomicconditions,andhavetakendifferentpolicies. •Currently,theworld’slargesttwoeconomiesareinsignificantlydistinctphasesoftheirbusinesscycles. LaborMarket •FromtheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemicin2020untilmid-2021,unemploymentinthe U.S.wassignificantlyhigherthaninChina.UnemploymentinChinaremainedrelativelystable. •However,whiletheU.S.jobmarketremainsstrong,China'sunemploymentratereboundsslightlyfromthesecondhalfof2021. 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 19-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-0123-07 ChinaU.S. Fig.1:UnemploymentRatesofChinaandU.S. LaborMarket •Sincetheendof2021,U.S.unemploymentratehasbeenconsistentlybelowitsnaturalratelevel,indicatingahotlabormarket. •Incontrast,China'slabormarketisfacingsignificantchallenges;especially,theunemploymentrateforindividualsaged19-24hassurgedto20percent. 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 19/07 19/11 20/03 20/07 20/11 21/03 21/07 21/11 22/03 22/07 22/11 23/03 23/07 0.00% NROUunemploymentrate Fig.2:U.S.UnemploymentRateandtheNaturalRateofUnemployment. 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19/07 19/10 20/01 20/04 20/07 20/10 21/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 0.0% unemploymentrate:25-59unemploymentrate:16-24unemploymentrate Fig.3:ChinaUnemploymentRates Inflation •From2020,U.S.inflationrosesharply,peakinginmid-2022,andthenstartedtofall,whileinflationarypressurescontinuedtoremainhighconsistently. •Incontrast,inflationinChinahasconsistentlyremainedlowandfaceddeflationarypressures,sharplydecliningfromthesecondhalfof2022onwards. 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 19/719/1120/320/720/1121/321/721/1122/322/722/1123/323/7 China:CPIChina:CoreCPIU.S.:PCEPIU.S.:CorePCEPI Fig.4:InflationRatesinChinaandU.S. GDPGrowth •TheGDPgrowthrateofU.Sisaboveitspotentialgrowthratesince2022. •TheGDPgrowthrateofChinaisbelowitspotentialgrowthratesince2022. 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% 2017201820192020202120222023 ChinaU.S. Fig.5:TheGapbetweenGDPGrowthRateandPotentialGrowthRate AssetPrices •Sincelate2021,therehasbeenaclearuptrendinU.S.housepricesandacorrespondingdowntrendinChinesehouseprices. 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 19/719/1120/320/720/1121/321/721/1122/322/722/1123/323/7 China:RealEstateClimateIndex(Left)U.S.:FreddieMacHousePriceIndex(Right) Fig.6:HousePricesinChinaandU.S. 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 •Thedivergenceinstockmarketindicesisalsoclear.Sincelate2022,theUSstockmarkethasreboundedstronglyoverall,whiletheChinesestockmarkethasconsistentlyunderperformed. 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 19/719/1120/320/720/1121/321/721/1122/322/722/1123/323/7 U.S.:S&P500China:CSI300 Fig.7:StockMarketinChinaandU.S. 6.0% MonetaryPolicy 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% •Since2022,therehasbeenanoppositegeneraltoneofmonetarypolicyprevailinginChinaandtheUnitedStates. 1.0% 19/07 19/11 20/03 20/07 20/11 21/03 21/07 21/11 22/03 22/07 22/11 23/03 23/07 0.0% China:DR007U.S.:EFFR •TheFederalReservehaslargelyadoptedatightmonetarypolicyduetohighinflationandexcessdemand. •Incontrast,Chinahasemployedloosemonetarypolicytostimulateitseconomy. Fig.8:U.S.andChineseMonetaryPolicyTargetRates 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 19/08 19/12 20/04 20/08 20/12 21/04 21/08 21/12 22/04 22/08 22/12 23/04 23/08 3.0% 1-yearLPR5-yearLPR Fig.9:LPR(LoanPrimeRate)ofChina •ThecontrastinmonetarypolicybetweenU.S.andChinaisevidentinthetableprovided.TheFederalReservestrivestoincreaseinterestratestocontroleconomicoverheating.Meanwhile,thePeople'sBankofChinapersistsinreducinginterestratestoboosttheeconomy. Table1:MonetaryPolicyOperationsinU.S.andChina TheFederalReserve PBoC 2021/11 Taperbegan 2021/12 reserveratio-0.5%，1-yearLPR-5BP 2022/01 1-yearLPR-10BP，5-yearLPR-5BP 2022/03 Taperended；EFFRtargetrange+25BP 2022/04 reserveratio-0.25% 2022/05 EFFRtargetrange+50BP 5-yearLPR-15BP 2022/06 Launchabalancesheetreduction,EFFRtargetrange+75BP 2022/07 EFFRtargetrange+75BP 2022/08 1-yearLPR-5BP，5-yearLPR-15BP 2022/09 Acceleratebalancesheetreduction,EFFRtargetrange+75BP 2022/11 EFFRtargetrange+75BP 2022/12 EFFRtargetrange+75BP reserveratio-0.25% 2023/02 EFFRtargetrange+75BP 2023/03 EFFRtargetrange+75BP reserveratio-0.25% 2023/05 EFFRtargetrange+75BP 2023/06 1-yearLPR-10BP，5-yearLPR-10BP 2023/07 EFFRtarg