中国11月金融数据点评

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：SECLicense[2012]No.669 ChinaNovemberfinancialdatacommentary 中国11月金融数据点评 刘道钰LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.:F3061482ConsultingNo.:Z0016422 桂晨曦GuiChenxiQualificationNo.:F3023159ConsultingNo.:Z0013632 2023/12/14 DATA November(expected) October September August AFRE(flow),100millionyuan 24500(24500) 18500 41200 31200 OutstandingAFREYoY% 9.4(9.4) 9.3 9.0 9.0 M2YoY% 10.0(10.1) 10.3 10.3 10.6 AFRE:AggregateFinancingtotheRealEconomy 1）11月社融总量增长较快，结构表现分化。11月社融存量同比增速提高0.1个百分点至9.4%，主要因为政府债券净融资增长较快。11月企业债券融资较少，反映企业融资需求偏弱；银行积极投放信贷使得企业贷款维持增长。11月居民贷款数据显示居民融资需求边际修复但仍偏弱。2）预计万亿国债增发支持12月社融偏快增长。 1)NovemberAFREgrewrelativelyfast,withdifferentiatedstructuralperformance.TheoutstandingAFREincreasedby9.4%YoY,0.1%higherthanlastmonth,mainlyduetotherapidgrowthofgovernmentbondfinancing.Thecorporatebondfinancingwasrelativelyless,reflectingaweakdemandforcorporatefinancing.Banksactivelyextendcredittomaintainthegrowthofenterpriseloans.Thehouseholdloansreflectthattheresidentfinancingdemandrecoveredmarginallybutwasstillweak. 2)AFREmaygrowatarelativelyfastpaceinDecemberduetotheissuanceof1trillionyuantreasurybond. OutstandingAFREYoY%M2YoY% 14 13 AFRE(flow),bycategory,100millionyuanChangesofAFREcomparedwiththemedian -100001000030000 12 11 10 9 8 7 Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 AFRE(flow) RMBloanstotherealeconomy CorporatebondsGovernmentbonds -1921 -2000 4563 11100 1330 11500 7500 24500 WeightedaverageinterestrateofinterbankRMBlending% RMBloans(flow)fromfinancialinstitutions,bycategory,100millionyuan ChangesofRMBloanscomparedwiththe 7-dayreversereporate% median -10000010000 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 RMBloans(flow)fromfinancialinstitutions LoanstohouseholdsHouseholds:mid& long-termloansLoanstoenterprises -1800 -3906 -2358 2925 2331 1427 10900 8221 1.0 Jan-22Jun-22Nov-22Apr-23Sep-23 Enterprises:mid&long-termloans 2544460 Sources:Wind,CITICSF ImportantReminder：Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport. 重要提示：本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Disclaimer:Unlessotherwisespecified,CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.possessesthecopyrightand/orotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreport.Withoutauthorization,nocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopied.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.makesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,orcompletenessoftheinformation,viewpoints,anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCo.,Ltd. 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议。