聚烯烃日报：成本端偏弱，聚烯烃盘面走强

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议观望。聚烯烃盘面上涨，现货价格未有较大变化。原油需求下降，国际油价持续走弱，聚烯烃成本支撑减弱。PP生产企业两套装置检修，开工负荷下降，PE生产企业检修装置变化不大，维持高开工。丙烷价格持续回落，PDH制PP生产利润修复，但未见PDH装置开车重启。需求逐步进入淡季，下游需求疲软。内外盘价差维持，LL进口窗口维持打开，PP进口窗口关闭。市场无明显利好提振，聚烯烃基本面偏弱。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存68万吨，较上一日去库1万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差在+50元/吨，PP华东基差在+0元/吨。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油需求下降，国际油价持续走弱，聚烯烃成本支撑减弱。丙烷偏弱走势，PDH制PP生产利润修复，但需求偏弱，PP开工率维持低位。 从业资格号：F03119179 宝丰三期50PP装置以及宁波金发一线40 PP装置停车检修，重启时间均待定，PP开工负荷持续下降，PE开工维持高位。聚烯烃标品与非标品排产方面，LL排产增加，PP拉丝排产持续降低。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，LL进口窗口持续打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：建议观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................