Climate Risk Screening System for Mainstreaming Adaptation into Bangladesh’s National Development Budgeting

CLIMATERISKSCREENINGSYSTEMFORMAINSTREAMINGADAPTATIONINTOBANGLADESH’SNATIONALDEVELOPMENTBUDGETING NOVEMBER2023 ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK CLIMATERISKSCREENINGSYSTEMFORMAINSTREAMINGADAPTATIONINTOBANGLADESH’SNATIONALDEVELOPMENTBUDGETING NOVEMBER2023 ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK CreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO) ©2023AsianDevelopmentBank 6ADBAvenue,MandaluyongCity,1550MetroManila,PhilippinesTel+63286324444;Fax+63286362444 www.adb.org Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2023. 978-92-9270-421-6(print);978-92-9270-422-3(electronic);978-92-9270-423-0(ebook) PublicationStockNo.TIM230499-2 DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TIM230499-2 TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned. Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm“country”inthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea. ThispublicationisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. ThisCClicensedoesnotapplytonon-ADBcopyrightmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedtoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial. Pleasecontactpubsmarketing@adb.orgifyouhavequestionsorcommentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfallwithintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADBlogo. CorrigendatoADBpublicationsmaybefoundathttp://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.Note: Inthispublication,“$”referstoUnitedStatesdollars. Onthecover:DifferentareasinBangladeshareaffectedbyclimatechange,notingthevulnerabilityofvarioussectorsinrelatedhazardanddisasterrisks(photosbyADB). CoverdesignbyEdithCreus. Contents TablesandFiguresiv Abbreviationsv Introduction1 ClimateRiskScreeningandClimateRiskandVulnerabilityAssessment3 Step1:SectorIdentification5 Step2:ProjectLocationSelection5 Step3:HazardsIdentification7 Step4:AssessingtheLikelihoodofHazards7 Step5:DeterminingtheConsequencesofHazards8 Step6:RiskScoring9 Step7:DecisiononClimateRiskScreeningorClimateRiskandVulnerabilityAssessment10 Step8:ClimateRiskandVulnerabilityAssessmentReporting11 Step9:RiskPresentation14 Conclusion14 Appendixes 1HazardsofBangladesh16 2DistrictsandRespectiveHazards19 3LikelihoodofHazardsin64DistrictsofBangladesh21 4ClimateRiskScreeningReportingTemplate25 5ClimateRiskandVulnerabilityAssessmentReportingOutline28 6SelectedAdaptationOptionsinDifferentEcosystemsofBangladesh31 Glossary35 References37 TablesandFigures Tables1LikelihoodofHazardsintheProjectInterventionArea 8 2ConsequencesofHazards 9 3RiskScore 9 Figures1ADBFrameworkforClimateRiskScreeningandClimateRiskandVulnerabilityAssessment 3 2StepsinConductingaModifiedClimateRiskandVulnerabilityAssessment 4 3TwoPartsofClimateRiskandVulnerabilityAssessment 13 4ConceptualizationofCurrentandProjectedRiskMaps 14 Abbreviations ADB AsianDevelopmentBank CRS climateriskscreening CRVA climateriskandvulnerabilityassessment DPP developmentprojectproforma GED GeneralEconomicsDivision JICA JapanInternationalCooperationAgency MOEFCC MinistryofEnvironment,ForestandClimateChange Introduction Bangladeshisamongthecountriesintheworldthatarehighlyvulnerabletoclimatechangeimpacts.Climatechangewillaffectthecountry’sagriculture,fisheries,ecosystems,environment,ecology,andeconomy. AddressingtheneedtomainstreamclimatechangeindevelopmentactivitiesofBangladeshemphasizestheneedforassessingthevulnerabilitiesandrisksofnewlyinitiateddevelopmentprojectstoclimatechangeandnaturalhazards. Developmentpartnersarealreadyusingclimateriskassessmenttoolsintheirrespectiveprojects.TheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopmenthasdevelopedaguidebookfordevelopmentplannerstoassessclimatevulnerabilityalongcoastalareas.TheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)usesaclimateriskmanagementframework(ADB2014)toassessclimatechangerisksofinvestmentprojectsandincorporateadaptationmeasuresinprojectdesign.TheJapanInternationalCooperationAgency(JICA)usestheJICAClimateFinanceImpactToolforadaptation(JICA2019a)andformitigation(JICA2019b).Since2014,theWorldBankhasbeenusingtheClimateandDisasterRiskScreeningToolsforidentifyingshort-andlong-termclimateanddisasterriskstobuildresilienceinitsdevelopmentprojects,policies,andprograms.However,suchtoolsareyettobeincorporatedintothedevel