张一甲：致追风赶月的你-2023中国科技产业50条判断

2023╚㎼璇䪫☋╃50匜⯀偃 氯㲳⩱䌑⮱㢽☭&CEO䑳┞氯 2023.11.30 ㎈労2023ꃰ낊鱌劓溸✘痍鱴⽟劻溸✘璇䪫☋╃50匜⯀偃缏㹼 ㎈労2023 ㎽12017-2023䌑1-10劓╚德꧇鴤箕駉偳㵊ꁾꀂꓪ☳☭㎽22017-2023䌑1-10劓╚德宑薨箕駉偳㵊ꁾꀂꓪ☳☭㎽32022-2023䌑10劓╚德⚕╃㹧╃☭⽄⽟䌐性䈰✑僓ꭊ㸰僓 26.25 31.26 15.00 32.85 12箕0駉213⻎䌑9嬠1-%1㙨0ꅌ劓 5.54 12箕0駉233⻎䌑6嬠1-%1㙨0ꅌ劓 2.20 5.20 2022䌑⽟䌐性䈰✑僓ꭊ 5047.5 49 48 47 46 45 44 2023䌑1-10劓⽟䌐性䈰✑僓ꭊ 48.6 2017䌑1-10劓 2018䌑1-10劓 2019䌑1-10劓 2020䌑1-10劓 2021䌑1-10劓 2022䌑1-10劓 2023䌑1-10劓 2017䌑1-10劓2018䌑1-10劓2019䌑1-10劓2020䌑1-10劓2021䌑1-10劓2022䌑1-10劓2023䌑1-10劓 2022.022022.042022.062022.082022.102022.122023.022023.042023.062023.082023.10 俚䰕匡徏╚㎼㎼㵶꧇鴤겐㎑劔ꮺ⪫⺶╚㎼宑氠薨疿㹾德楼缛駉㹾氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍2023䌑 ✅䠋 31% ㎽12021-2023䌑9劓╚德巆鰆脢⟥䖦䭰俚 2021.012021.032021.052021.072021.092021.112022.012022.032022.052022.072022.092022.112023.012023.032023.052023.072023.09 俚䰕匡徏漩册筻德楼缛駉㹾氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍2023䌑 㴥間 㝤╃椚鱂둛㹧╃걾ⲎⰦ둛吿嬢╃气閕埛䭦缩鱂둛㝕㳔嬢╃气鱂⪝劅걾㹧╃㳌 13.2% ㎽12020䌑10劓-2023䌑6劓⪢德16-24㻹☭⺛㓻ꩍ騫句换╃椚(%) 21.3% 699 ㎽22013-2023䌑╚德둛吿嬢╃气☭俚⹴㙨ꪍ椚 둛吿嬢╃气☭俚┧☭㙨ꪍ椚% 4.0% 909 1076 7.6% 1158 2020.12 2021.03 2021.06 2021.09 2021.12 2022.03 2022.06 2022.09 2022.12 2023.03 2023.06 20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 俚䰕匡徏德楼缛駉㹾侷芍㹾氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍2023䌑 㴥間 ㎽12023䌑1-10劓⪢德獘⚷巆鰆⿣관み䙰뀭⻎嬠㙨ꅌ䝠⬔㎽22013-2023䌑┪⶯䌑╚德㺈宑䚾呬㸸笡俚⺈䝠⬔ 3.5% 10.6% 18.4% 12.7% 3.1%2.5% 4.6%5.5% 7.6% 31.2% 31.0% 30.6% 30.1% 29.3% 28.4% 28.2% 30.2% 29.8% 30.5%30.7% 2023.01-022023.032023.042023.052023.062023.072023.082023.092023.10 20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023H1 俚䰕匡徏德楼缛駉㹾氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍2023䌑 㴥間 ㎽12021-2023䌑10劓╚㎼䨼㐌☋䐷⹿䫌鰑箕駉㙨ꪍ椚%㎽22022-2023䌑10劓╚㎼ガ⿣䨼⹴ⲋ⪫嚜ꨆみ뀭箕駉⻎嬠㙨ꪍ䝠⬔㎽32022䌑10劓-2023䌑10劓╚㎼䨼㐌☋䐷⹿冎官䭰俚 ガ⿣䨼ꨆみ뀭箕駉⻎嬠㙨ꪍ(%)ⲋ⪫嚜ꨆみ뀭箕駉⻎嬠㙨ꪍ(%) 6.0% 3.6% 2.1% -2.7% -3.7% -0.1% 4.1% 8.8% -10.5% 8.4% 1.1% -1.5% -3.2% -4.6% 0⡽绻 -4.9% 94.66 94.3894.3294.40 94.6194.6694.7294.51 冎官䭰俚100 0⡽绻 -9.3% -26.3%-26.1%-26.6%-26.7% -35.0% -18.7% -17.4%-18.6% -20.2% -16.6%-16.1%-17.3% 94.02 93.75 93.5493.4393.40 210-121劓䌑 210-232劓䌑 210-252劓䌑 210-272劓䌑 210-292劓䌑 210-1212劓䌑 210-223劓䌑 210-243劓䌑 210-263劓䌑 210-283劓䌑 210-1203劓䌑 210-1202劓䌑 210-122劓䌑 210-223劓䌑 210-243劓䌑 210-263劓䌑 210-283劓䌑 210-1203劓䌑 2022.10 2022.12 2023.02 2023.04 2023.06 2023.08 2023.10 俚䰕匡徏德楼缛駉㹾氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍2023䌑 㴥間 ⻎嬠 0.3% 觝╃侅⪝ 107.8┧☳⩧ 0.6% ⻎嬠 91.6 ┧☳⩧ 觝╃䧯续 -7.8% ⻎嬠 6.1 ┧☳⩧ ⯈巷䙰뀭 俚䰕匡徏㎼㵶缛駉㹾缛駉俚䰕╬2023䌑1-10劓閕埛♨┪䈰╃⚕╃╭锢鯯ⲏ䭰吙箕駉⡽ 㴥間 ㎽12023䌑⯼┩㳌䍳┞绣䉗㐙䝠⬔㎽22022-2023䌑假Ⳬ㕈ꓭ閕埛䝠⬔㎽32021Q3-2023Q3╚⚕┪䉗䝠⬔ 1,515 2,167 11% 89% 32% 68% 13522☳⩧6510鱎5071☳⩧2251╗ 2㕈0ꓭ23閕假埛Ⳬ 耘⩧ⷑ嬠☭宑䉕ⷑ嬠 —2021Q3-2023Q3╚⚕┪䉗俚ꓪ 154173 1,991 2,147 9894 䙰鄌鰑뀭☳⩧ 160156 鄌2鰑02뀭3Q⻎3嬠┪䉗20俚23ꓪQ⻎3嬠 -45% -36% 97121103 1,194 1,275 1,300 ⻎嬠┬ꮴ -20.2% -25.9%-31.8% -35.8% ⻎嬠┬ꮴ 20假23䌑⯼┩㳌埛䍳 20䫌23䌑⯼┩㳌ꓪ䍳 䫌鰑閕埛 2023䌑⯼┩㳌䍳 ⻎嬠┬ꮴ 2023䌑⯼┩㳌䍳 ꃹ⮃俚ꓪ ⻎嬠┬ꮴ 2㕈0ꓭ22閕㲾埛ꓪ 1,857 723 2021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3 㜜峜騜僻勔䫟⼴䨿䭰㕈ꓭ╭锢⻼┞绣䉗㐙溸僃劻艧勶䫌鰑㕈ꓭյVCյPE俚䰕匡徏庣璇յ氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍2023䌑 㴥間 ⯼㞎ꮕ嫙 鱎徏ꮕ嫙 呦鴤氲瞏㝃յ뀖겐㔔䧯錻氲 广⪝ꮕ嫙 ☭⟥䈰䛉冝㴘茤⪢յ뀖 蛚曩⶯㸍 规愲յ睘㎃ 䙰3姍2俚10 ⮃⺛╚㎼ վꮺ⯜殇喖假绯⶷䪫㴼勘տ ╚㲳耘䧹╅◜嶯⚂氲 喟ꩢꬾ◜⚂ 瞏剉⩱ 䘽S璇A悁⻑崫ꬾյ ╚㎼⪺⯜錻鍧耘 █侍⩴⮄⪳◜氲⚂羱 耘㎼⯜鍧 ⶶ⪝╬㵄錻✅耘庣㎼⶿⮬ 㔔錻⯜鍧 ╚錻✅庣⮬⶿㎼⪝ꮪ㵄 鱪錻砯⯜뀖鍧㔔 㸰⪝稌묶☊⻐錻⶿⮬ ✅⯜뀖鍧㔔錻 ꪍ錻✅庣⮬⶿㲾⪝⥈㵄 螅⶿䑑⛻瞏錻⮬28⪝㵶 㵄✅庣⶿ վ㳔岻蛚呿曩⾕տ璇BI閕S⹿䉘┩Ⲏ 溸茤ⲇ 㝕裯ꮺ䕒⯜⶯╚㸍✅㎼ 576 22 1994䌑 1996䌑 2013䌑 2014䌑 2015䌑2018䌑 2019䌑 2020䌑 2021䌑 2022䌑2023䌑 2018䌑2019䌑2020䌑2021䌑2022䌑2023䌑 㜜峜缛駉僓ꭊ䨗婝⯒2023䌑10劓 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍2023䌑 㴥間 ➷█⬐痓䭦缩 ➷█㹧䉄鰺畕杅㺥䐷應揓 ◚㝰䧹⬔䞡揓 䉄Ⳗ偅㑝┱♨虝⮬⹿气⫯◜⬐痓괭䝫┿汕䰁㵭⪢槊缋嵴㙨ꪍ 罁ⵌ晦⹿假┞鿝☆挩䧹◜應揓ն氮罁氵卸俅宑傉宑全⻎潊⫯全㸍璼鉿Ⲙ僁㐃䩤⮄脚銏溸氲駰宑㎑ 2023䌑2劓 2023䌑10劓⮵ 2023䌑10劓䍐 䉄♨⬐痓晦⹿ 罁ⵌ⫯◜⬐痓 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍唯槏2023䌑 蝠겋╗✅ ┞娉䩘勨溸䲀⮃㐃ⶶ潂뀏䑜⹿䬎䗣 ⷬ耘㎼溸⯜鍧勑茤ꮞ婝╚㎼⺆䕒⪸ꨴ䪫勘ꂛ婢ն վⶶ潂뀏ꊪ䫟տ 蝠겋╗✅ ㎽12019-2023䌑11劓德分㝕埛㒘箕駉⹿䉘俚ꓪ ㎽22023䌑AIGCꄽ氠㝕埛㒘分⿣氠䨮盛䉗㐙㵽ꓪ☳⩧ ㎽3❈氠搑䍳Top10鉿╃䉗㐙㵽ꓪ☳⩧㎽4❈氠搑䍳Top10㐙冎䉗㐙㵽ꓪ☳⩧ 130 66 34 13 200 300 15.3 5% 34% 103.5 11% 32.8 152.8304.4 50% 100% 侷芍46 璇煝/ꯗ吿28 ◧臅羱22 ꓭ鄌22 㪾✅17 ┺╃纳ⲏ17 鿞⚂16 ⶖ泈16 倁㧅13 倁呿⮱✑30 ⲋ⪫24 倁续侊/䪆⫭18 䵎筻⽕亦17 倁续䷃锢䓛绯14 焒駮ꭄ瞩14 冝茤㵊纳13 璇煝㳔勘13 脌駹12 2019䌑2020䌑2021䌑2022䌑2023䌑7劓2023䌑9劓2023䌑11劓 ┞绻㓻䉗◝绻㓻䉗┩绻㓻䉗㎃绻⹴♨┬㓻䉗AIGC俠✅ 㜜峜騜僻䉗㐙㵽ꓪ=氠䨮❈氠䟩䡇*❈氠椚*⻄绻㓻䉗☭⺛俚*氠䨮䱹⺇⚃呬 ⯜ꅐ10 嶯䫟駦駉10 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍唯槏2023䌑 蝠겋╗✅ ㎽12018-2023䌑10劓╚德假茤徏尸鿕ꨆꓪ㎽22020-2023䌑10劓╚德假茤徏尸鿕⮃⺛ꓪ┧鿵㎽32023䌑1-10劓假茤徏尸鿕德⫐ꨆꓪTop10┧鿵 689 728 假茤徏尸鿕ꨆꓪ┧鿵 352 126121137201820192020202120222023䌑1-10劓 2023䌑1-10劓 2022䌑 2021䌑 2020䌑 31 7.0 67.9 99.5 嬠◱ꂽ杅偅䬕 䌦尸 ⻊⯈ ꪍ㴘槏䞰 ┪尸▘氠鿕 ┪尸ꄽ氠◩襱 ꪍ㓻㸰먹 41.1 34.7 29.8 28.5 28.1 25.4 20.1 10.3 77.1 237.1 嬠◱ꂽ 槏䞰 ꭄ汕 俚䰕匡徏╚德尸鿕䈰╃⶷⚷漺┿尸鿕鰑駗氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍唯槏2023䌑 ✅䠋芻긖 ⪴駮䪫勘AI假茤徏侓瞬 璇ⶨ䪫鉿䉂溯䧯╃⪢䬿宑⪴俚駮㲼蛚ꓨ曩䭠瞏㸉둛㸖璇ꨇ䪫溸痓⟥熏䖦 鉿䓺╃䧯䗪⹿ꅌ㺥ꃆ假♣Ⲙ茤缂绞⮕嶯뀖╚意┯劔偃뀰巏锭⻓䙎假⺈譻嶯 缋╬嵴䉗⯢㐙應⹿駉㺥⮦峜⮃⪝⺬假Ⲙⲇ ꃰ낊鱌劓溸✘ /2017-2018//2019//2020//2021/ 缋嵴⽟劻埛䑑⮱假̕䪫勘⮱假德ꮪ䮅䧹䒔ꇔ鱪鿕̕潳绻鳷鰯僓♣杅䔰┞⮘┪◥̕◥┪┞⮘劅假⪴駮⻑◧臅羱+̕俚㲼缋嵴 /2022/ 假溸ꮕ嫙俚㲼僓♣̕冝茤僓♣ 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏2023䌑 䉗㐙羻┧骮㻺茤┞阌♨▇ն䉗㐙┯儱䬂骮溸յ嚤䭇溸䉗㐙儱긌䊬⪾✅溸յ㝃⩧溸ն㜩勵⺈㹾┯儱⚕╃⹿㺥┯✲溸⡊⺛ն 做⻔ 僓ꭊ 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏2023䌑 荆銣⮃溸䈵㝕ꭄ뀨 臔撌蔦䉁⺪♨侊⺈溸ꌄ⮕ ꄑ䭃䧰♰蔦䉁⺪♨✑╬╭騕溸⾀뀨 俚䰕匡徏氯㲳⩱䌑冝䍍俠槏2023䌑 ꂀⶥ䌑╚㎼⩱⚨⶿⛻ꅐ⚃┱鍯勨㵽ꓪ鱂ⲹ㎽ ⩧/ⶨ殇┧ⶨ殇 ꨈ瑠㲳氲尊⚃呬┱假茤徏尸鿕⟛劔ꓪ鱂ⲹ㎽ 耘⩧/ⶨ殇僓┧鿵 ◧臅羱僓♣瓌Ⲙ俚䰕嵤ꓪ䌐㐭鰑鰆溸⺈䝠⬔ ⩧/GBG/䨮 18000 90000 16000 80000 14000 70000 12000 60000 10000 50000 8000 40000 6000 30000 4000 20000 2000 10000 20000⩱⚨⹿氲⶿⛻ꅐ⚃䈱鿣⩱⚨鍯勨箕駉㵽ꓪ⺯鿣 100000 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1300ꨈ瑠㲳氲尊⚃呬䈱鿣╚㎼假茤徏尸鿕⟛劔ꓪ⺯鿣 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 40瓌Ⲙ俚䰕嵤ꓪ䌐㐭鰑鰆䈱鿣氠䨮劓㐭瓌Ⲙ俚䰕❈氠ꓪ⺯鿣9 358 307 256 205 4 153 102 51 02010䌑2011䌑2012䌑2013䌑2014䌑2015䌑2016䌑2017䌑2018䌑2019䌑2020䌑2021䌑2022䌑0 -200 2010䌑2011䌑2012䌑2013䌑2014䌑2015䌑2016䌑2017䌑201