南华宏观研究团队周度报告：内生动能持续修复

11 10 PMI 10 CPI 10 CPI PMI PPI 10 PPI PPI PPI 2023 1.....................................................................................................1 2...................................................................................4 3..............................................................................................9 4............................................................................................10 1.1 ...........................................................................................1 1.2 PMI .......................................................................2 1.3 CPI ...............................................................................................3 1.4 PPI ...............................................................................................3 2.1 ...........................................................................................4 2.2 ...........................................................................................6 3.1 .....................................................................................................9 3.2 ..............................................................................................9 3.3 ..............................................................................................9 4.1 .................................................................................10 2023 11 10 1. 1 6.4% 1.1 140 90 40 -10 -60 Wind 2018-01 2018-04 10 3% 2018-07 2018-10 出口金额:当月同比 2019-01 2019-04 2019-07 4931.3 565.3 2019-10 2020-01 2020-04 2020-07 2020-10 2021-01 进口金额:当月同比 2021-04 30.8% 2021-07 2021-10 2.5% PMI 2022-01 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 1 2023-10 2023 11 10 1.2 70.00 65.00 60.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 40.00 Wind 2 CPI 2005-01 PMI 2005-11 2006-09 2007-07 2008-05 2009-03 2010-01 PMI PMI: 2010-11 2011-09 2012-07 2013-05 2014-03 2015-01 2015-11 PMI: 2016-09 2017-07 2018-05 2019-03 2020-01 2020-11 2021-09 2022-07 2 2023-05 1.3CPI 1.4PPI 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00 -1.00 -4.00 -2.00 -6.00 2020-11 2021-02 2021-05 2021-08 2021-11 2022-02 2022-05 2022-08 2022-11 2023-02 2023-05 2023-08 CPI非食品消费品 服务项目食品 Wind Wind 10 PMI CPI CPI 10 PPI 10 PPI PPI PPI 2. 2.1 2.1 1 3200 2 3 1 7 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 8 9 (2023) 10 4931.3 6.4% 30.8% 10 2.5% 3% 565.3 1 210 10.2%1076.7 37.5% 3 0.2% 10 0.1% 2.2 2.2 8-10 1 Q3 2 3 FOMC 4 3% 2% Q3 10 630 5 5 6 6 2% 7 10 15 8 6 18 9 10.1 20221 3.9% 3.8% 1 20% 6 1 7 2 9 2.2% 0.8% 20221 1.80% 183 4 3 119 4 1 2 1 10 PMI 47.8 32 10 PMI 46.5 35 11300 1 1112 6 2 1-2 MQ-9 3- 3. 3.1 iFinD 3.2 iFinD 3.3 iFinD 2023.11.10 ifindwind 4. 4.1 20231110 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net 603093