南华宏观研究团队周度报告：四季度可能的政策探讨

9 24 GDP GDP 3.9% 3.9% GDP 3.9% GDP 5% 4.39% 5% 2023 1......................................................................................1 2...................................................................................4 3..............................................................................................7 4..............................................................................................8 1.1 GDP ....................................................1 1.2 2022 2023 GDP %...........1 1.3 GDP .........................................2 1.4 GDP ..................................3 2.1 ...........................................................................................4 2.2 ...........................................................................................5 3.1 .....................................................................................................7 3.2 ..............................................................................................7 3.3 ..............................................................................................7 4.1 ...................................................................................8 1. 3.9%3.9% GDP GDP GDP3.9% 5% GDP4.39% 5% 1 GDP 2023 5% 2022 GDPGDP GDP 113.21 5% 2023 2023 118.87 55.58 GDP 63.29 GDP GDP 2016-20202021-2022 2023GDP1.1 1.25% GDPGDP 3.9%GDP5.2%GDP 5% 1.1 GDP 2016-2020 2021-2022 47.4% 47.7% 47.5% 52.6% 52.3% 52.5% 100% 100% 100% 1.2 2022 2023 GDP % 2022 2023 257286.1 268991.8 4.5% 269674.4 286755.5 6.3% 289504.9 300758.1* 3.9%* 1.22022 2023 GDP % 315588.5 332151.1* 5.2%* “*” 1132053.81188656.5*5.0%* 2 GDP 20222023 GDP 4%- 4.9% GDP GDP 5%5%-5.6% 4.39% GDP30.22 33.07 4.39% 5% 4.8% GDP GDP 1.3 GDP 4.90% - - 5.40% - 5.50% 4.80% 5.60% 4.70% - 3.4%-4% - 4%-4.4% - 4.30% - 4% 4.80% - 5.50% - 5.30% 4.50% - 5.3% 5.2% 3 5 2018-2022GDP GDP 3.9% GDP 3.9% 5.3%5.2% 1 GDP GDP 3.9% 5.2% 5% GDP 3.9% 5% 2GDP4.39%GDP4.8%GDP5% 5 5% 1.4 GDP 2018 6.7% 6.5% 2019 5.9% 5.8% 2020 4.8% 6.4% 2021 5.2% 4.3% 2022 3.9% 2.9% 5.3% 5.2% GDP 2. 2.1 2.1 1 2 3 4 925 5 6 1 2 2.2 9 7 2.2 918 18 33 8218 7 136 1.1125 7 69 1 2 5.25%-5.5% 3 50 11 30% 4.76% 9 4 5 1 916 128 20.1 8 407 404 410 3 9Markit 47.9 50.6850.1 8 PMI47 50.58 50.48 48.9488 PMI50.2 51PMI 50.2850.4 2 9 1 21 9 PMI 43.4 44 8 43.5 9 PMI 48.4 47.7 8 47.9 9 PMI 47.1 46.5 8 46.7 3. 3.1 iFinD 3.2 iFinD 3.3 iFinD 2023.09.22 4. 4.1 / 926 22:00 () 714K 700K 20:00 () 1.443 M 1.543 M 927 04:30 API() -5.250 M 928 20:30 201K 217K 22:00 (%) 0.9 0.3 20:30 GDP(%) 2.0 2.2 929 20:30 PCE(%) 4.2 3.9 20:30 PCE(%) 0.2 0.2 22:00 67.7 67.7 17:00 CPI(%) 5.2 4.6 17:00 CPI(%) 0.5 17:00 CPI(%) 5.3 4.9 09:45 PMI 51.8 09:45 PMI 51.0 09:45 PMI 51.7 930 09:30 PMI 51.0 09:30 PMI 49.7 09:30 PMI 51.3 101 09:45 PMI 51.8 09:45 PMI 51.0 ifind 2023924 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net 603093