2023年韩国房产流动性和房贷利率调查

CBRE IntelligentInvestment Understanding Korearealestate liquidityflowsandcaprates REPORTFIGURES CORERESEARCHOCTOBER2023 Investmentactivitysetto recoverafter2024 Nearly66%ofCBRE professionalsexpectinvestment activitytopickupafter2024 .4..II1.:] Jde*.d*uirykutxIuxlx.lyisit,Ihld-aIleIFtp.*.Fs.J?: ExecutiveSummary *+2SSC3RCIN Waitingfortheendofthetunnel Interestratehikasonpause Whiloos:majorAsi:=seitiemakotsIsvc pi.!fi.+.hrle'ts.'h.Iike?tth::sire. pereneleLlel.3.sete.'An? Marketuncertaintypromptsnew approachestoinvestment Amofes.lstainedhoninterestrete tforl..ItalorsaoJ.ilargsla.si sefasleeregered.irtionendvaueaddtacovcItJ'T2. C Expectedpricegapprojectedtonarrow Asthesxertarprireaa.bawrersrle"s andJyorsgradjal:erowa,trasaction voh.ines:frsre:HslHrdIrisr:inthhsHron:halrcttheyeer. Highratesandslowgrowthcauseconcern Riskappetiteremainslow F7%otresoonsentsex3ressingalowe'rs: Newdevelopmentsstilllimited padwirrroa.sd.log ronetructnnategdsaaininaojectinacrgcausingElomocisplaystcrgeni+hntstosell. Invastmentrisksparsist iglinte'ce:aresstcxceraulenes-slcwee:loinarwihrhiryHxlrsrjrorconcens CJK_R_SLAICI 01 Riskappetiteremainslow Figurc1;ChangoInInvostcrs*riskappctite Jide".d*urykutxuxls.x.luuisit,Ikasda1lIRv*.,Ji*: 31% 6 Higher 21% 2335 49% %l. L2%. 17% Abrut70% roporlsirnilal orlowortisk 57% appetite 23 23 O5 36% % 017077 25% 9% (337071 017077 5337077 017073 =Aboutthesarne Lcwer Com'ncrcialrealsteteinvostmcntsontimenthas weakenedsigrificantlyacrcssAsiaPacific.incuding seccndhalfaf2022 Invcstmcntscntimcnt weakensduetolow growthandhigh interestrates • •AccC'dinglcC3R='sQ12023AsiaPdcificCapRaloSurvey.wichpclledCBR='sapitslnarketsandvaluatian μrufessorials,aboul,70%cfKurua-busodru23uriderils atstec:thatinveatment.sentinentnthemarketinthefirst.halfufthisyearwaslowaroratas'milarlevelwomparudtc thieendlcft.heprevausyear. Atthesametime.hovgar,theoroporticrudcrriestic respondentsexpectingnvestmentta*ecnverinthe seccndhaltofthevearwasrriorathan30%,abovethatct severalmajorAsiaPacifmarketsincludingHrnKang. Singapore.andA.ustralia. • As=Pscific Krrea SuuIce:0gp32.-SLves,CERCRes9I=ll.2G223. Jide.ddiylutxIealsxalyizit,Thasardaiale.IFepe.Fsi: (.4.I Flgure2;uyingan<lselingirtentionsbyInvestortyiX Buyingintentions Sellingintentions Netpurchascdcmand drivenbyfundsand companies Realoelalefurds 53% Coruuralioris 10% REITs 31% Frivateinvestors Instituticrolinvostcre/LP 13% Proxertycomlos 35% Banks 14% 23% 38% :0% 23% 17%. 52%. 17% 19% U% 188 0%. 6% 30% 30% • CespitctheoveralldoclinoirinvostmontscntimentinKorea.CBRE'sanalysiscfinvescmentintenticrs3ybuyer Lypsrovoalsthalroaloslalefundsandcorporalionsrstain strongwillingnesstebuv.felovecbyREITs. CBREhasobsurvodsorelalicccrlcasosofclurnoslic omparieswithigfrentaburdensandaneectosacur fiespavepurenasinyasselsJireclly.InH12023,Nexon purchaseds50&shareinAutawayTower,whileHvundai VutorCc'ripany=cqu'6da5o%sr=l6inScaleTuwur. hcthinteD.Ihesefirmsintendtc.uilisethepraperries: =stheirheadquarters. • Ihiayearhsaslsoseenseveraldomesticinarit.utions, whichhavebaenexperiencingstressintheiroverseasred estatepo'tfalilos,starttcraalisepraitshyseling dcesticassets.Koreandevelopers=reaxhibitinga strongwillincnossasclldlue:tohirIrtorastrstosanc increaseddevelopren:costs. • <orea AslFllc Kot::Chiangeinins.o1ritantizriesofCrl2323ceripzredtatlieere:of2022. Suulte:spR2.-SLrves,CRCRes*91=liQ32027. Jid".d*uIrkutxuxlsi.xIuisit:IldalIF".s.Ji: FigureJ:Soulommorclslrostatinveatmentvol,me Unit:KRwWtrIli1 Officcinvestment fallstolowestin fiveyears 11.5 •KoroacommercialroalcstatoinvostmentvolumcroechedKRWtrillioninH12023,atout30%oflastve=r'stctal. H1 2 7.5 H2 201"7 4.3 20°5 2 20°9 2020 2021 2022 2023 7.7 8.7 ThisisasimilarioduclioirvolumcLoLhalobscrvodin1 2029atthonsetofthaCovID-19pandenic.. 11.2 •ThcdcclneinofficcinvuslrnurildcLivilyhasboon9.7 7.0 especiallyncticeable.Athaughseverslcfficetransactans weicfirnalisedinH'2023,officeinvuslrrlurildurinigL'nu pericdbarelyhreschedKRw3trillion,the:awestlevelir 11.5 thepastfiveyeers. Inr:nntrast,Irgisticsimvestmen:vnl.JmetotalledKRw1.9 trillion,dccountingfor32%ofthtotal.Whilethesacoris wit.nessinelevstedvacsncyriskduetalsrgesupply:the tirstsixrnorthsottheyea'sowthecc'riplecions'sgvarsl pre-aurchasedasset3. • 6.1 OfficeIndustrialHotelRetail • Hozelandreil'nvestrnentvcurnedecliredalongwiththe[ost-pancemicrecovaryintourismandconsumptlon. otIrludingtrarszetirislargaihanKPw10blio.Ineu:gofig/llet=l/Rtsilt'z'sastonswithcolardLogistisstrarsaetirisvithirGicatelcoJl.Suulce:DRCRe:ealcl,-ul,2023 02 Investorconcerns: Highrates,lowgrowth,limitedliquidity andawideningpricegap Jide".d*urkutxuxls.x.lyuisit.kasldal.IFv*.s.Ji: Flgurc4:GC:FirowthandgovernmcntIxondyleldsI>ycountry(2019-2c23F> .4I.:] Fcarsover lowgrowthamid interestratespeak Korea UniteclStates UritedKincdom china .lspan 15% 10%. 5% 4% 59 • 2x: 0% Afterthegobaeccnomycllintoreccssionin202c<luetotheimpactofmeasurestocon