聚烯烃日报：开工负荷提升，聚烯烃期现下跌

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议观望。聚烯烃盘面大幅走低，现货价格下跌，国际原油小幅反弹，油制聚烯烃生产利润再度亏损，给予成本面支撑。装置开工率仍处于低位，部分装置开车重启，开工负荷企稳回升。年末为传统淡季，需求偏弱势运行。社会整体库存较高，上中游库存维持缓慢去库。人民币持续升值，预计LL进口窗口持续打开，PP进口窗口即将打开。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存64万吨，较上一日去库1.5万吨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差在+130元/吨，PP华东基差在-70元/吨。 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际原油小幅反弹，油制聚烯烃生产利润再度亏损。丙烷维持强势，PDH制PP生产利润亏损较深，开工维持低位。 上海石化25HD装置、金能化学45PP装置开车重启，聚烯烃开工率小幅回升。 进出口方面，人民币持续升值，预计LL进口窗口持续打开，PP进口窗口即将打开。 ■策略 （1）单边：建议观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨.................................................................................