您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[中泰证券]:三季报点评:盈利短期承压,看好光伏玻璃供需改善 - 发现报告
当前位置:首页/公司研究/报告详情/

三季报点评:盈利短期承压,看好光伏玻璃供需改善

2023-11-08中泰证券洪***
三季报点评:盈利短期承压,看好光伏玻璃供需改善

JKLffi(600207.SH)/_`ab JKLffiNO;Iƒ#?@PQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^ cdef;</=>Iƒ2023g11h8i ƒ"#$%&'()=>?@ABCDE !"ffi$%4.86& 23 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E '()%*+ y-z[|78&] 3,339 4,144 5,477 6,251 7,087 ~òÄyoy% 46% 24% 32% 14% 13% ,-./01%S0740522020001 ÅqÇ|78&] 210 78 47 182 217 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn ~òÄyoy% 89% -63% -40% 288% 19% É5zÑ|&] 0.19 0.07 0.04 0.17 0.20 É5ÖÜ9á -0.22 -0.08 0.21 0.44 0.52 '()%23 ÅàâzÑÄ 11% 2% 2% 6% 7% ,-./01%S0740522040004 P/E 25.2 68.3 113.1 29.1 24.4 P/B 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 Email%wupeng@zts.com.cn äã%É5åçéèêë56íìhffiŠXñó5ffiòô2023ö11õ7Izùffi FGHI *+,- ./012-3456fi8 !"#$%&300 20% 10% 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 9:;< 1DEFGHIJKLffi%NOPQ RSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcd 2DEFGeIJKLffi%fghij-klmnoX<=pqrs?tuvwxd 456789:2023;<=>?23Q1-3@ABC40.46D?EF+45.1%?GHIJK0.36D?EF-65.4%?LJM9.5%?EF-2.3pctNOQ3BC14.34D?EF+38.1%?PF+3.1%?GHIJK0.03D?EF-92.6%?PF-86.1%?LJM10.0%?EF-2.7pct?PF+1.0pctQ 456(785) 1,089 9:56(785) 1,051  !ffi(&) 4.86 !;(78&) 5,294 9:!;(78&) 5,106 RB0S6 2023T<=UJKEFVW?X,Y>Z[\]^_`ffibcdefghijklmnoJ?pq78T<=UrsLJMEFVW2.7tu0vQ 2023Q3GHIJKPFVW?X,Y[wxykl?OQ3[wxyM7.1% PFz[2pct?|]JK~3000&Q ÄÅ)Ç6 É]^_`Ñ"6ÖÜáàâäãåVçé5èƒz[?fi_`íìîiïñólQEò?Éijô?öõ=Šùffibûü†1?¢£§•ûü1¶ß®©™´¨Vˆûü?gh1Æ;Ø?±jßõ¥µ¿É¥∫®zösb¬‘ª?º‹)ÇLJMïÅæøQ¿¡?789¬9:7ZɃfi2&aØ«»…µ¿?0 À[ƒfiÃÕ1&a3?É®)œ –h—ö“”‘’?z[oJ÷üQ ÉÿŸ⁄¤6 Ã1378‹›fiflVç]‡·‚?~[„‰4&a]‡_`öìsE?–ÊÁNÃ23Ë_µ¿ÈJvÍ?@Aä®?ÎÜœÏÌÓÔèÒÚffiÙ?¿ ¡789¬9:7ZɃfi÷ı±Ëy_ˆµ¿Ã3Dã÷ı±Ëy_ˆ; ®©3?˜µ¿DËy_˘µ¿Vç?œ –˙g78¸Ë˝˛ˇîÑ*®Ñ”?z[®˝!"#NÃ33$3&'(Ì)@AÎ&*+?,-+ù.5NÃ43 /0)ÇLow-E®&12[3ïÅ789Ä4Ç5©Q oJº67ÉÂ8369:º‹23-25;@AGHIJK0;D0.5/1.8/2.2D<ÃTº6=1.8/2.8/3.2D3?EF-40%/+288%/+19%?>T?ffifi“PE0;D113.1/29.1/24.4@?AB78ÑCklD•?Ôè83EFG4”83àIÜ? J;îÑèKö•Lè?1Æ;]^_`ffibMLNOPQ?R78?D]^_`À&SÑ?ij‘’TfiUV?pqLJMcLº[NW IÜ?J;XYZ[\ ]mn?78_`®&fi&TfiU0º[?^¿Væ_78ÑC?œRÔè_78 833Q `azb6îÑèƒU0º[N·‚!"hcN1çdõ¥ffibklN®©œÄU0º[eQ oJº6f !"#$% ®©:™7£ &'% ®©:™7£ ()*+ 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E ()*+ 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E ,-!. 1,827 1,643 1,875 2,426 /012 4,144 5,477 6,251 7,087 3145 124 164 188 213 /067 3,642 4,921 5,420 6,107 3189 651 816 882 978 :.;<= 30 38 44 50 >?89 148 200 221 249 @ABC 39 56 64 71 D, 392 530 584 658 EFBC 125 167 189 212 GH!" 0 0 0 0 IJBC 88 124 140 157 KLMN!" 427 564 644 730 OPBC 37 73 109 154 MN!"G) 3,570 3,918 4,393 5,253 QCRSTU -27 -11 -15 -19 KLVWX! 0 0 0 0 !"RSTU -29 -20 -20 -20 VWYZX! 72 72 72 72 [\]S^N1_ 0 0 0 0 `a!" 2,748 2,985 3,267 3,591 X!1_ -9 0 -2 -4 bcde 289 389 389 289 KL1_ 27 16 21 21 fg!" 330 307 287 269 /0&' 145 82 270 314 KLhMN!" 380 380 380 380 /0i12 17 9 9 11 hMN!"G) 3,819 4,133 4,395 4,600 /0ijk 1 2 2 2 !"G) 7,388 8,051 8,787 9,853 &'lm 161 89 277 323 nWo9 1,169 702 401 335 pq: 50 17 50 59 3?45 329 445 490 552 r&' 111 72 227 264 3?89 768 1,039 1,144 1,289 stYuT_ 34 25 45 48 >19v 0 0 0 0 wxy[zr&' 77 47 182 217 GH#$ 55 72 82 93 NOPLAT 136 131 316 390 KL3?9 33 33 33 33 EPS[|]~Y7ŠÅ 0.07 0.04 0.17 0.20 Ç*ÉÑWÖhMN#$ 253 253 253 253 KLMN#$ 86 95 100 105 ÜáOPàâ MN#$G) 2,693 2,639 2,503 2,660 ()*+ 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E VWo9 963 1,825 2,688 3,551 6Väã 3?$å 0 0 0 0 /012çVâ 24.1% 32.2% 14.1% 13.4% KLhMN#$ 474 474 474 474 EBITçVâ -34.2% -18.1% 138.3% 23.7% hMN#$G) 1,437 2,299 3,162 4,025 wy[zr&'çVâ -63.1% -39.6% 288.3% 19.3% #$G) 4,130 4,938 5,665 6,685 é&äã wxy[zpèêZ_ 3,125 2,954 2,918 2,917 ë&â 12.1% 10.1% 13.3% 13.8% stYuZ_ 134 159 205 252 r&â 2.7% 1.3% 3.6% 3.7% pèêZ_G) 3,259 3,113 3,122 3,169 ROE 2.4% 1.5% 5.8% 6.8% #$íYuZ_ 7,388 8,051 8,787 9,853 ROIC 3.2% 2.6% 5.9% 6.4% ì$äã î.Mï% ®©:™7£ !"#$â 55.9% 61.3% 64.5% 67.8% ()*+ 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E $PZ_à 87.7% 104.5% 122.2% 145.6% ñ/óNî.M -91 232 479 571 MNàâ 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 î.1_ 285 349 552 650 òNàâ 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 D,ôö -161 -138 -54 -74 /õäã ñ/ú31ôö -456 -238 -89 -130 l!"ùûâ 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 ñ/ú3?ôö 444 386 150 207 3189ùûüt 38 48 49 47 KLôö -202 -127 -81 -83 3?89ùûüt 58 66 72 72 X!óNî.M -934 -521 -483 -444 D,ùûüt 31 34 37 37 !7jk -1,131 -519 -478 -438 †Y°¢[£Å YZX! -3 0 0 0 †Y1_ 0.07 0.04 0.17 0.20 KLVW!"^§ 200 -2 -5 -6 †Yñ/î.M -0.08 0.21 0.44 0.52 •!óNî.M 2,348 105 236 424 †Yr!" 2.87 2.71 2.68 2.68 o9ç= 766 395 562 796 ¶Sàâ Y&;&ßj? -50 -323 -796 -945 P/E 68.3 113.1 29.1 24.4 Yu•! 1,198 0 0 0 P/B 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 KLôö 434 33 470 573 EV/EBITDA 351 321 195 166 !"#Wind$%&'()*+ FGƒ"jk# 83 g. ?h83 iÏ º[jk6~12t¬\TfiE[jl2mno¸15%/1 G4 º[jk6~12t¬\TfiE[jl2mno¸5%~15%(w 4ï º[jk6~12t¬\TfiE[jl2mno¸-10%~+5%(w p4 º[jk6~12t¬\TfiE[jl2mqo¸10%/1 îÑ83 G4 º[jk6~12t¬\fiE[jl2mno¸10%/1 ÷r º[jk6~12t¬\fiE[jl2mno¸-10%~+10%(w p4 º[jk6~12t¬\fiE[jl2mqo¸10%/1 -s6833lD>Z9:t)*6~12t¬\78?ffiÃuîÑ2m3TfiE[jl2m*Tfi·‚fAQÿ÷A?·‚/vw3002mDjlNß<⁄·‚/<⁄i2Ãxfiyz[|3*3u<⁄]·2mÃxfi]·[|3*3DjlN~®·‚/ÄÅÇÉJ÷Ñ2mDjl?Ö?·‚/3Ü5002muáàâärs2mDjlÃWïg.*ã¡3Q Ø"ø$% ÷åZç?éïè78Ã/VêëFj78”3,ï÷ÑZçíì˘îïñ[óò*ZçÉÂôöÑ"ÂbQj>Zõöj78*úùpyQj78U[^(CûCüj>ZR†ÿDúùQ j>ZjLj780ÿ°¢ûñ£Dò§*7fiÂ¥u@ÖÔ°Â¥?•¶_?ß*°¢®v?#ƒ©™´ú®¨7&?∆ÆUXØ5±<I*ÉxumnQj78#ƒ¢U¥Zµ*§u*l≥r¨fèr?#j>Z÷*Â¥´xª´º6º•¶>ZEæ7fi9:ò*ø¿?ò©[¶òÔèQj78fij>Z¡¬§uò ¸U9í+±*ƒqV]íæâ?ÉÂß“>«î»sT“*…ßuæâQj>Z¡ *