人民币汇率热点：美国经济的超预期能否持续？

I 10 30 2023 20111290 GDP 4.9% 2.1% 4.3% 2022 5 GDP - 11FOMC GDP Z0017101 1.GDP1 2.....................................................................................................7 1.1.1 GDP %......................................1 1.1.2 GDP %..................................2 1.1.3 %..................3 1.1.41993................................................................4 1.1.5OECD4 1.1.6 PMI ...........................................5 1.1.7 ..............................................................5 1.1.8 ..............................................................5 2.1.1 GDPNowGDP .................................................................................................................................7 2.1.2 ..............................................................7 1.GDP 102620:30 GDP GDP4.9% 2.1% 4.3% 2.1% 2.69%2.1% 1.47%1.47% 0.79% 0.57% 1.1.1 GDP % 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 -30.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 : : :: ( :GDP:2012 iFinD 1.1.2 GDP % 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 0.6%0.48% 1.62% 2023 : : :: ( :GDP:2012 iFinD 8670 GDP4% 2.3 FOMC 20% I20231030 1.1.3 % 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 -1.00 :: :: : iFinD GDP 0% 1.32% 196 218 2024 PMI 1993 137OECD2 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -20.00 iFinD 1993-02 1994-06 : 1995-10 PMI 1997-02 1998-06 : 1999-10 2001-02 : 2002-06 2003-10 % 2005-02 2006-06 2007-10 2009-02 OECD 2010-06 2011-10 2013-02 2014-06 2015-10 2017-02 2018-06 : 50 2019-10 2021-02 2022-06 1993-02 1.1.41993 iFinD 1.1.5OECD 1994-06 1995-10 1997-02 1998-06 1999-10 2001-02 2002-06 2003-10 : 2005-02 : : (ISM): 2006-06 2007-10 : 2009-02 % 2010-06 %3MMA PMI 2011-10 2013-02 2014-06 2015-10 2017-02 2018-06 I2023 2019-10 2021-02 1030 70.00 65.00 60.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 40.00 104.00 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00 94.00 92.00 4 2022-06 1.1.6 PMI 70.00 65.00 60.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 40.00 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 2013-11 2014-05 2014-11 2015-05 2015-11 2016-05 2016-11 2017-05 2017-11 2018-05 2018-11 2019-05 2019-11 2020-05 2020-11 2021-05 2021-11 2022-05 2022-11 2023-05 1.80 : : % iFinD : (ISM): PMI 2024 1.1.7 1.1.8 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 2021-07 2021-11 2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 2023-07 -0.50 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 2022 -10.00 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 2013-02 2014-01 2014-12 2015-11 2016-10 2017-09 2018-08 2019-07 2020-06 2021-05 2022-04 2023-03 1.60 : :: % : :: % : : % : : % iFinD iFinD 2. 1025GDPNow2023 GDP5.8%85%10 5.8% GDP GDP 2.1.1 GDPNow GDP AtlantaFed 2.1.2 Bloomberg GDP - 11FOMC GDP I20231030 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net 603093