阿富汗流离失所问题的地理空间分析（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10583 GeospatialAnalysisofDisplacementinAfghanistan AnaisDahmani-ScuittiErwinKnippenbergWalkerKosmidou-BradleyJohannaLeeBelanger PovertyandEquityGlobalPracticeOctober2023 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10583 Abstract Givenincreasinglevelsofdisplacementduetoconflictandclimatechange,itisimportanttoestablishrobustmonitor-ingsystems.Thispaperexploreshowremotesensingdata,particularlygeospatialdata,canbeleveragedtomonitordisplacementflows.ItdrawslessonsfromnortheasternAfghanistan,namelythe2018drought,whichisconsideredoneoftheworstindecades.Theanalysisidentifiesdis-placementpatternsbycombiningdisplacementdatafromtheInternationalOrganizationforMigrationDisplace-mentTrackingMatrixwithnighttimelights.Theresultssuggestthatthecumulateddisplacementmovementsfrom2018to2020canbeproxiedbytrendsinnighttimelightimagery.Settlementswithhighernetinflowsofdisplacedpersonsbetween2018and2020havecomparativelylarger nighttimelightgrowth.Allowingfornonlinearitysuggestsdecreasingmarginalreturnsofdisplacementonnighttimelights,assettlementsshowingthelargestexpansionofnighttimelightsarethosewiththelowestdisplacementinflows.Themodelusesdataonnighttimelightstopredictwhetherasettlementwasanetreceiverofdisplacementflowsduring2018–20andcorrectlyclassifies63.2percentofthesettlementsasnetinflowornetoutflow.Thisstudyprovidesaproofofconcepttotestwhetherpopulationdis-placementscanbeproxiedusinggeospatialdatatrainedonadministrativerecordsinadata-scarceenvironment,wherereal-timeinsightscaninformhumanitarianassistance.ThisworkwasdonebeforethepoliticalcrisisofAugust2021. ThispaperisaproductofthePovertyandEquityGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatadahmaniscuitti@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam GeospatialAnalysisofDisplacementinAfghanistan AnaisDahmani-Scuitti,ErwinKnippenberg,WalkerKosmidou-Bradley,JohannaLeeBelanger JELClassification:C15,C21,O12,O15,L94,R23 Keywords:migration,displacement,geospatialanalysis,econometricregressions,nighttimelight PolicyStatement Robustmonitoringsystemsarecrucialinhumanitarianinterventions,particularlyinthemostvulnerableareas.Theseareas,pronetonaturaldisastersandrivenbyconflict,areoftenhardtoreach,makingon-the-grounddatacollectionlogisticallydifficult,time-consuming,andexpensive.Thispaperexploreshowremotesensingdata,particularlygeospatialdata,canbeusedtomonitordisplacementflowsinaconflictzoneaffectedbydrought.Usingthe2018droughtinNortheasternAfghanistanasacasestudy,itshowshownighttimelightscollectedbysatellitecanbeusedtoquantifythedisplacementofpopulations.Theseresultscanbeusedtopredictwhetherasettlementwasanetreceiverofdisplacementflowsin2018-2020,providinginsightsthatcaninformhumanitarianassistance. Wedeclarethatwehavenorelevantormaterialfinancialintereststhatrelatetotheresearchdescribedinthispaper.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBankoranyaffiliatedorganizations,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.ThisresearchwassupportedthroughtheWorldBankBudget(BB)fortheAfghanistanPovertyandEquityProgramFY21-22aspartofitscoreanalyticalactivities. Correspondingauthor,adahmaniscuitti@worldbank.org Dahmani-Scuitti:WorldBank,Poverty&EquityGlobalPractice,WashingtonDC,USA;Knippenberg:WorldBank,Poverty&EquityGlobalPractice,WashingtonDC,USA;Kosmidou-Bradley:WorldBank,Poverty&EquityGlobalPractice,Dakar,Senegal;LeeBelanger:WorldBank,Poverty&EquityGlobalPractice,WashingtonDC,USA. 1.Introduction Anestimated5.5millionpeoplewereinternallydisplacedinAfghanistaninthesummerof2021,accordingtotheInternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM,2021).The2020GlobalReportranksAfghanistanamongthetopfivecountrieswithhighlevelsofinternaldisplacementduetoconflictandviolence.ItranksfirstwiththehighestnumberofInternallyDisplacedPersons(IDPs)duetonaturaldisasters(IDMC,2020a,11-12).Importantgeographicdisparitiescanbeobserved,withregionssuchasHerat,Helmand,Badghis,orKandaharhostingmanyIDPs(Figure1).Since2017,350,000–480,000peoplehavebeendisplacedannuallyduetoongoingconflictandviolence(UNOCHA,2020;UNOCHA,2021).Adevelopingdrought