2023四季度商品指数展望：半卷红旗临易水

20111290 Z0000505 2023 2023 I 9 OPEC+ F03103098 F03118352 1..........................................................................................................................1 2....................................................................................................2 3................................................................................16 4.......................................................................................22 5...................................................................................29 2.1.1 1..............................................................................................2 2.1.1 2..............................................................................................3 2.1.1 ...................................................................................5 2.1.2 .....................................................................6 2.2.3 ...............................................................................7 2.2.4 .......................................................................................7 2.2.5 ............................................................................8 2.2.6 ...................................................................................8 2.2.7 .............................9 2.2.8 .................................................................................10 2.2.9 ...............................................................................................10 2.3.1 .............................................................................12 2.3.1 ...............................................................12 2.3.2 ..........................................................................13 2.3.2 ...............................................................13 2.3.3 ............................................................................................14 2.3.4 .................................................................................14 3.1.1 M1PPI17 3.1.2 ...................................................................................................18 3.2.1 PMI ...........................................................................................19 3.2.2 .............................................................................20 3.2.3 ..............................................................................................................21 4.1................................................................................22 4.1..................................................................22 4.2......................................................................................................23 4.3......................................................................................................24 4.4......................................................................................................25 4.5..................................................................................................26 4.6......................................................................................................27 1 200461 2023930 20 20 61 2004 GDP 2 2.1 202361, , , 2.1.1 1 NHCI NHII NHECI NHMI NHAI NHPMI NHEI NHPCI 2.33% 4.22% 39.98% 4.07% 4.49% 9.50% 6.84% 5.38% 60.02% 2.00% 3.54% 13.12% 8.86% 2.58% 7.78% 7.07% 8.11% 16.83% 2.28% 8.89% 2.00% 3.37% 12.22% 2.00% 3.30% 2.00% 2.43% 4.41% 11.61% 8.77%10.03%20.85% 6.87%7.53%12.82%26.28% 4.08% 16.01% 3.79%11.30% 3.01%3.57%6.38% 5.66%6.90%13.93% NHCI NHII NHECI NHMI NHAI NHPMI NHEI NHPCI 2.24% 6.87% 4.40% 13.82% 4.20% 8.79% 3.08% 5.42% 21.18% 9.30% 10.88% 22.38% 4.16% 3.35%4.11%7.49% 2.67%3.28%5.98% 14.47%15.75%25.00%53.32% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.75% 2.19% 3.80% 5.82% 3.81% PTA 3.75% 4.45% 7.95% 29.24% 2.28% 4.06% 15.35% 3.95% 12.13% 2.45% 2.92% 5.95% Source:NanhuaResearch 2.1.1 2 NHCCINHNFINHFINHFMINHBMINHOOINHAECINHCIMi 5.20% NHCCI NHNFI NHFI NHFMI NHBMI NHOOI NHAECI NHCIMi 19.26% 13.87% 29.53% 17.34% 13.19% 31.80% 8.28% 4.22% 33.53% 6.60%8.90% 11.83% 31.74% 54.03% 29.19% 22.80% 37.51% 21.56% 12.30% 17.17% 26.94% 11.63%21.22% 3.35% 10.75% 15.73% 35.18% 72.93% 6.73% 10.59% 14.36% 8.43% 2.38% 4.16% 2.51% 4.30% 5.30% 23.70% 5.39% 1 2 NHCCI NHNFI NHFI NHFMI NHBMI NHOOI NHAECI NHCIMi PTA 21.39% 4.54% 11.31% 15.24% 20.47% 11.62% Source:NanhuaResearch 2.1.1 PVC LPG 7.57% 5.95% 2022 2.1.2 20 2.1.2 2.2 2023 78 9 78 9 9 2.2.3 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 23/6/3023/7/3123/8/31 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 23/6/3023/7/3123/8/31 2.2.4 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 12/1014/1016/1018/1020/1022/10 3700 3200 2700 2200 1700 1200 700 200 12/1014/1016/1018/1020/1022/10 2023 2.2.5 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% / / 23/6/3023/7/3123/8/31 2.2.6 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 14/1/2816/1/2818/1/2820/1/2822/1/28 15%