百年未有之大变局下，没u哦经济温度如何？

- 9FOMC 20111290 Z0017101 I2023 921 I2023921 1.....................................................................................1 2..............................................................................4 2.1.........................................................4 2.2.........................................................8 2.3“”..............................................8 .................................................................................................................10 i I2023921 1. GDPNow 5.0% 2023 GDP 5.8% 12 1.1.1 12 1.1.2 2023Q3 GDP GDPNow 5.8% 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 2021-12 2022-03 2022-06 2022-09 2022-12 2023-03 2023-06 2023-09 2023-12 2024-03 2024-06 0.00 12 % iFinD 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 1971-06 1973-10 1976-02 1978-06 1980-10 1983-02 1985-06 1987-10 1990-02 1992-06 1994-10 1997-02 1999-06 2001-10 2004-02 2006-06 2008-10 2011-02 2013-06 2015-10 2018-02 2020-06 2022-10 0.00 AtlantaFed 1.1.3 170.00 160.00 150.00 140.00 130.00 120.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 12 % :: iFinD - - - 17-18 20223 20238 9 1 I2023921 1.1.7 1.1.8 1.1.5 1.1.4 6.0000 1.1.6 5.0000 4.0000 3.0000 2.0000 1.0000 0.0000 2019-08-272020-08-272021-08-272022-08-272023-08-27 : % iFinD 1.1.52023 1.1.62023 PMI 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 -20.00 -40.00 -60.00 70.00 65.00 60.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 : :: : % : :ISM: PMI (ISM): PMI 2018-11 2019-04 2019-09 2020-02 2020-07 2020-12 2021-05 2021-10 2022-03 2022-08 2023-01 2023-06 2017-07 2018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 40.00 : : :: : % iFinD iFinD 2 I2023921 1.1.7 1.1.82023 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 1947 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017 0.00 18.00 13.00 8.00 3.00 -2.00 -7.00 : : : : : % % % 2019-01 2019-06 2019-11 2020-04 2020-09 2021-02 2021-07 2021-12 2022-05 2022-10 2023-03 -12.00 iFinD iFinD 2 3 8670 GDP 4% 2. 2.1 2.3 2.1.1 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00 -4.00 -6.00 iFinD NBER 2021-12 2022-01 GDP: 2022-02 18 2022-03 2% 2022-04 : : 9 2022-05 FOMC 2022-06 GDP % 2022-07 2022-08 18 2022-09 0.15% 2022-10 2022-11 0.99% 2022-12 : 8 2023-01 3.8% 2023-02 I 2023-03 2023 2023-04 9 2-3 2023-05 21 GDP 4 2023-06 2.1.2 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 iFinD 2.1.4 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 iFinD NBER 2.1.1 1948.11.30 1953.7.31 1957.8.30 1960.4.30 1949-01 1951-12 : 1954-11 1957-10 1960-09 : 1963-08 1966-07 18 % 1969-06 1972-05 1975-04 1949.10.31 1954.5.31 1958.4.30 1961.2.28 1978-03 1981-02 : 1984-01 1986-12 1989-11 : 1992-10 iFinD 1995-09 % 1998-08 18 2001-07 2004-06 2007-05 11 10 8 10 2010-04 2013-03 2016-02 2019-01 5 2021-12 2020-03 18 8 4.4% 2020-06 2020-09 CPI: 2020-12 2021-03 2021-06 2021-09 2021-12 4.36% % 2022-03 % 2022-06 2022-09 4.29% 2022-12 2023-03 2023-06 2.1.3 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 2020-12 2021-03 2021-06 8 2021-09 2021-12 % 2022-03 I 2022-06 2023 % 2022-09 2022-12 2023-03 9 21 63.00 62.80 62.60 62.40 62.20 62.00 61.80 61.60 61.40 61.20 61.00 2023-06 I2023921 6 8 7 3 6 2.1.57 3 6% 1997-12 1998-12 1999-12 2000-12 2001-12 2002-12 2003-12 2004-12 2005-12 2006-12 2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 2011-12 2012-12 2013-12 2014-12 2015-12 2016-12 2017-12 2018-12 2019-12 2020-12 2021-12 2022-12 1969.12.311970.11.3011 1973.11.301975.3.3116 1980.7.301980.7.316 1981.7.301982.11.3016 1990.7.301991.3.318 2001.3.312001.11.308 2007.12.312009.6.3018 2020.2.282020.4.302 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 : 12 : : 3 : iFinD 2.1.6 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 iFinD 1974-01-02 6 1976-01-02 1978-01-02 2.7.1 1980-01-02 : 1982-01-02 62.8% 1984-01-02 1986-01-02 1988-01-02 1990-01-02 : 55 1992-01-02 : 1994-01-02 1996-01-02 1998-01-02 : 2000-01-02 2002-01-02 2004-01-02 : 2006-01-02 5 2008-01-02 : 2010-01-02 2012-01-02 I2023 % 2014-01-02 2016-01-02 2018-01-02 9 2020-01-02 21 8 7 2022-01-02 2.1.7 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 iFinD 2.2 2.3 1.0% 1.5% GDPplus 1.2% 2019-05 JOLTs -0.7% 2019-07 9 2019-09 2019-11 : 2.1% 0.6% 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 : 2020-07 2020-09 GDI 2020-11 2024 2021-01 2021-03 “ 2021-05 : ” 2021-07 2023 GDP 2021-09 2021-11 : GDP 2022-01 : 2022-03 GDP GDP 2022-05 9 2022-07 I2023 % 6 2022-09 FOMC 6 1.1% GDI 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 9 GDP 2023-05 21 8 2023-07 I2023921 2.3.1GDPplus 2.3.29 FED 9 I2023921 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net