2023年二季度展望：金融裂缝和经济损害正在显现（英）

March2023 2023GlobaloutlookQ2update FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA. FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES. BIIM0323U/M-2820860-1/26 每日免费获取报告 1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告； 2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报； 3、每周分享经济学人 4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者 所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。 扫一扫二维码 关注公号 回复：研究报告 加入“起点财经”微信群 Thenewregimeofsharpertradeoffsisplayingout Thetradeoffbetweencrushingactivityorlivingwithhigherinflationinaworldshapedbysupplyisfrontandcenter.Centralbankprojectionsforhigherinflationandslowinggrowthsuggesttheyarewakinguptothistradeoffnow. U.S.FederalReserveprojectionsforQ42023GDPgrowthandinflation 4% CorePCEinflation GDPgrowth 3% 2% 1% 0% Sep21Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23 Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,U.S.FederalReserve,March2023.Notes:ThechartshowstheprogressionofthemedianFederalOpenMarketCommitteeprojectionforQ42023U.S.realGDPgrowthandcorePCEinflationyear-over-year, fromSeptember2021toMarch2023. Themesandviews 1. Pricingthedamage 2. Financialcracksandeconomicdamagesfromthefastestratehikingcyclesincethe1980sareemerging.Whatmatters:thepricingoftheseandourassessmentofmarketrisksentiment. Rethinkingbonds 3. Weseehigheryields,especiallyinshort-termgovernmentbonds,asagifttoinvestorsafteryearsofbeingstarvedofincome. Livingwithinflation Centralbanksarelikelytostoptheirrapidratehikeswhentheeconomicandfinancialdamagebecomesclearer,withinflationlikelysettlingabove2%policytargets. Latesttacticalviewchanges Developedmarketequities -1 Emergingmarketequities +1 Highyieldcredit -1 +2 Short-termgovernmentpaperEMlocalcurrencybonds +1 Inflation-linkedbonds +2 Long-termgovernmentbonds -1 Overweight Neutral Underweight TheopinionsexpressedareasofMarch2023andaresubjecttochangeatanytimeduetochangesinmarketoreconomicconditions.Strategicimplicationsrefertolong-termviewsoffiveyearsandlonger,tacticalimplicationsrefertoassetviewsonshorterhorizonsof12monthsorless. Rapidratehikesdriveeconomicandfinancialdamage We’vearguedthattheFed’sfastestratehikingcampaignsincethe1980swouldcauseeconomicdamageand financialcracks.Thosefinancialcrackshaveburstintoviewinrecentweeks. Fedratehikingcycles,1972-2022 1980 2022-2023 1972-2016 12 10 Changeinfedfundsrate(%) 8 6 4 2 0 050100 Weeks Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,withdatafromRefinitivDatastream,March2023.Notes:ThechartshowspreviousandcurrentFederalReserveratehikecycles. Notarepeatof2008,yetourrecessionviewisreinforced Theeffectsofhigherinterestratesandtighteningfinancialconditionsarehittingtheeconomywithseveralindicatorsflashingred.Wedon’tseearepeatof2008’sfinancialcrisis,yetthebanktumulthasreinforcedourrecessionsview. KeyU.S.economicindicators,2006-2023 WeakerStronger Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,withdatafromRefinitivDatastream,March2023.Notes:Thechartshowsaheatmapofkeyeconomicindicatorsfrom2006-2023.Seriesarescoredbasedonthenumberofstandarddeviationsfromaverageovertheperiod.Thesquaresturningmoreredrepresentstheindicatorworsening.Theseriesusedarethefollowing.Mortgagerate:theconventional30-yearmortgagerate,MortgageBankersAssociation;Homebuilderconfidence:U.S.NationalAssociationofHomeBuildersHousingMarketIndex;Residentialinvestmentgrowth:theannualchangeinU.S.residentialprivatedomesticinvestment,U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis;Pendinghomesales:U.S.pendinghomesales,NationalAssociationofRealtors;CEOconfidence:U.S.ConferenceBoardCEOConfidenceSurvey.Smallbusinesscreditconditions:U.S.NFIBSurveypercentageofrespondentspositiveoncreditconditionslessnegative.Corporatelendingconditions:U.S.C&Iloansurvey–largeandmediumfirms,tighteningcredit.Businessinvestmentgrowth:U.S.non-residentialprivatefixedinvestment.U.S.personalsavingsrate.U.S.retailsales:Theannualchangeinsalesexcludingmotorvehicledealersandgasstations,CommerceDepartment. Tighteningcreditsupplytoweighonactivity BanklendingsurveysshowcreditconditionshadstartedtotightenintheU.S.andtheeuroareasincelate2022asratesclimbed.Wethinkthelatestepisodeofbankingstressispoisedtoexacerbatethistightening. Corporatebanklendingconditions,1980-2023Regionalbankindexperformance,2023 Tightening Easing StoxxEurope600banksS&P500diversifiedbanksS&P500regionalbanks 80120 Shareofrespondentsreporting(%) Priceindexlevel(Jan.2023=100) 110 40 100 90 0 80 -40 199019952000 2005 70 201020152020 60 EuroareaU.S. Jan23Feb23Mar23 Pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatorofcurrentorfutureresults.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,withdatafromRefinitivDatastream,FederalReserveandtheEuropeanCentralBank,March2023.Notes:Thechartontheleftshowsthenetpercentofrespondentsthatreportedcredittighteningorcrediteasing.Abovethezeroline,respondentsreportedcredittightening.Belowthezeroline,respondentsreportedcrediteasing.Thechartontherightshowstheindexperformanceofvariouslargeandregionalbankindexes.Itisnotpossibletodirectlyinvestinanindex.Indexperformancesdonotaccountforfees. Wedon’texpectcentralbankstocometotherescue Bondmarketsarepricinginratecutsin2023,reflectingtheoldrecessionplaybookwherecentralbankscutra