2023年澳大利亚大型零售物业LFR报告英文版

CBRE LargeFormatRetail Australia Insights CERERESEARCH MAY2C23 IntelligentInvestment REPORT IiJ.ll.I.silI .dy:6,. Keythemes O1Highbarrierstoentry&rnarketsize. 02 Populationisakeydrivertosales&incomegrowth. C3Healthyoccupiersalesgrowth. 04 Limitedsupplypipeline. 05 Shiftingbuyerlandscapetoinstitutions. 06 Outlook. UJK_R_SLAKCI &-SC:CEFC,IF- 01 HighBarriersto Entry&MarketSize I.lly.I.sl' Irioinparisoritoothegobelnuikcts,thcAustralia"rc-a'lcrivironiricritcnjoysalcvelct'prctection Jnlkemanyathrmgrkets.Theccstcfland,pxaitlcularlyInmetropolitararessomajortlesIome ofchemcst=xFensivegloballu,wher=residtial_sageisoftenthehighestandmostvaluablecpticn Thisr:uplerlvithahighlyfegulntccancloft(:ntracterlplanningregim)andcoetof(onstrur:tinr (paticularystthispointintlhecycle)lraselinicingeffectontesizeoftheretai,inclucingtheLarge ForinatRctail(LFR)r'aikot. Asarasu.t,nesencrantsIntotreLrRmarket"acealgrificantbarrlerstaentry.vhileeatalslished ownerswithexistingin'astructureandexperiencehaveadistnctadvantag=.Thisisexemplifiedby thefactthaltAushaliahasc..9stpn'olalulailpucapilaccmpanciltc.2.1sqminhe:1isanrl c.1.53q1nCanada(asatDecember2022), MuikclSizc .dyb,.I TTighharrier'stoentiy Therearecul'renth31gLFRcentresIn^ustralla,wlthatotslmarketslzeofspproximatelv,345,coC sqmcffloorspace.TheaveragesizeofanLFRcentreisarcund10.77sqn.Desptethis,A.Listralie's olaiseclcrishighlyrolloluzl,withslrit:lpcoclionsinplocutosafufuardchentsticrt:lailgrsandl limitforeigncor1ptiticn.Australia's10largestLHRassstsrepresent1.0c2,108sqmorc.19.5%oftl1e tctalLFRtkoorspaceCFY23?Hoover.uriikeothcrrotailassss.LFRassetscanberour[xswdfor Ind..strlaluse.eenwithGoodmans5A2(msxulstlonofthAlexnlrig1lomemakerCntre.If thstrendpersstsi:couldcontinuetonagaLFRs-pply,chusmakingthaseassetsmorescarce. Thisunderlyingfgc.or,(ontbinxdwithAuslilia'siob>ustonlropillygrowingconcny,vill strengthenthepositionofLIcvnersandtenentsellke. Thevacaricyratsto1LFRssatsinAustral'adeclesedfrcin5.2%iri2021/22toa1ecc'dlcwot3.%in 2n2z2a.Thls;tighteningvarareyrefeets:agrowingcmandforthssets,aitlculsrlylventhe limitednesvfloorspacebeingacdedtothemarket.AsarBsul,rentalratesfortheseassstsre ixpc.dloccnlinue.orst;olon!lwilhthuitossulvolues.ThisIrexdisi~dicaliveolLhcslrong 20% Cre-2uLFRluuisFuw?A.oluuwwe.?ul 13nfa.s-*a'sarmes-Il:*ats. marketcondicionsforLIkinAustralia. ./.chL1.Ra:1+y.M UJK_R_SLAKCI *-SCCERC,IT.-2. 02 PopulationisaKeyDriver toSales&IncomeGrowth I'g:Fr:Fl-l BrightfutureforIL.FRwithpromisingpopulationgrowth I.llgtil'! 156#10]Ir15|ndldz].1smy:,inf.i_ gicnuth.Thlikebyflawoneffeetofstrongpcoulatlon 500,0C0 ows n'ncrasecderiardtorhcuseholdgoods. 2.5% 400,000 2.0* 1on.o jenuug 1.5% 700.00 100,000 Populaticn 1.0% gronth Kat 0.5% 108,00) -200.0C0 0.C% N=turalIncrease Netoverseasmigration(non-=s) Ne:lcvutonenigration(FS) Annudlguwth(RHS) The[aauseinoverstasnigrationin202'resti"gtroiCCvIC:hedsserithenatlen'spicpulsticngroathflatlineata.1,versustheleg-termaverageof2y.(2011tc2020).However,hereopaningcfbordersi-November2021andkey t:hangusotreskilloulmigrationpolic:ylcoksellosoarelur~topg-CoviD pop_letiongrcwtl1levssinI-Y2so*c.b21,9o0acditionelp2calearcundayear eheaclofcarl'srorecasts.TheFederaGcverrnentariricuncsda22%i"creassin tlhepermanelitmigrationcapforFyz3te:1se,ocoovercomecurrentskillsshcrtages.Th=ncstin-dera'djcbs(vacant)of2022incl.deregister=dnurses, scfvureaadaprpicgrarmersandafulanddlisabledcurors. Australiahasthe2=lhighestprc,actedpopuationgrovthretescftliedlevelcasd woildintheconingdscade(+15.3%/4.43nillicripeorakebetwee"2023and2033). Thls;wllrlrveslg*ficantdemsnrlfeheuslngards..hsequently,sstrnngtallwlnd tcLFRsales.PcpulaticngrovthinAustraliaisprc;ectedtob=2%i-theFY23 tufrcm+1.1%inthopriorvoor3.oncl+17%inFY24CF:deralBuugel2C23-243. Ihelikelyflowone"ectcfst"ongpopulaclongrowth,especlallyonaustrali's EasteinSeasoaid,willseeiricrga:eddeilaridtorLFRgocds.scorisiners ase:ilre:Iifstyleandhcuscholdproduata.. As45bn Axlimt,nf,nniputintaclenal -".e..Je*.coe..4.Crruy.b?s-..eno """:('s"?"wuniri.tluEwsl"Scubus"] vnn-;*ghnrrep:.a'inishs*?. UJK_R_SLAKCI *-SCCERC,IF.-2 I'geFr:Rtl I.llyI.sl' Globalcomparison -iglr:7Hnat.a*infnyastan1.agnwchn'X:73? Australiahassecuredthe2'd -0.1%fastestgrowingpopulationof EUROPE 1.0% CANADA 001 0.1%GERMANY UK 0.5%FRANCE-0.5% JAPAN thedevelopedworld 0.5%0.9% APAC WORLD USA 1.4% MIDDLEEAST 2% AUSTRALIA Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 Dac-24 Jun-25 GOPgrowth 7! 1<: 1.1:11 1!6: 1 UnemploymentRate .!±: ..!, ,7:1 4.71 CPIInflation ./, JIG WagcPrlccIndek .30 4.00 42. 4.00 3.7t. UJK_R_=LAKCI *-SCCERC,IT.-2. 03 HealthyOccupier SalesGrowth I'g:Flr:F-l Figure3:Nyliur'CululalveCliarigvirCapitalValLusfMa202C-Ms12023? Reboumdincapitalvalues .043: :1A Rosidcritiulcupitalvalueshavebcenrcativ:lvrosilientdesrtet"cpaccaric magnttuc:ofIntreatrate~iksInAustralla.Infact,Syelney.Mellxo..rneand Bris33neresidentialval_swereshcwing3.i%.C.6%andQ.0%growthg5g nosctiucly,astofasril20