钢铁行业周报：钢铁销售即将进入旺季，基本面有望持续改善

主要观点： 报告日期：2023-09-10 ⚫钢材市场：开工率环比微升，即将进入钢铁消费旺季，叠加需求端政策刺激，市场供需预期改善。 执业证书号：S0010121070002邮箱：wangjz@hazq.com联系人：黄玺 高频数据： 1）钢材价格：本周Myspic综合钢价指数-0.51%，其中长材、扁平板分别-0.06%、-0.15%。螺纹钢价格为3770元/吨，环比+0%；热轧板卷价格3920元/吨，环比-2.24%。原材料成本：铁矿石价格为827.5元/吨，环比-2.13%；焦炭价格为2304元/吨，环比-0.86%；焦煤价格为1642元/吨，环比+0.98%。盈利：螺纹、线材、热轧盘面利润分别为-339.4元/吨、400.4元/吨、-440.8元/吨。 执业证书号：S0010122060011邮箱：huangxi@hazq.com 2）产量：冷轧、热轧、线材、中厚板、螺纹产量分别为83.88 (+0.08%)/300.96 (-2.36%) /117.58 (-7.21%) /141.53 (+0.14%) /296.46 (-0.70%)万吨。开工率：高炉开工率84.39%，环比+0.3pct；电炉开工率62.82%，环比+0pct；高炉产能利用率92.76%，环比+0.49pct；电炉产能利用率55.82 %，环比+0.61pct。库存：总社库1182.49万吨，环比-0.72 %；总厂库433.95万吨，环比-3.10%；螺纹社库565.06万吨，环比-2.84%；螺纹厂库184.61万吨，环比-5.75%。 刺激地产和鼓励基建政策频出，钢铁消费即将进入旺季。从新基建的角度考虑，中国的管道已进入更新换代阶段，农村的供水排水系统建设粗糙，城镇海绵管网建设也近在眼前，建议关注新兴铸管、金洲管道、友发集团等。作为新能源汽车领域核心金属材料，电工钢也是值得关注的板块，新能源汽车迅速发展带动了电工钢的下游需求，目前板块估值普遍不高，建议关注宝钢股份、马钢股份、首钢股份等。 1.供需仍双弱，强复苏预期打高钢价2023-01-152.强复苏预期，社库明显提升，钢价淡季不淡2023-01-083.疫情叠加春节临近，钢铁市场偏弱运行2023-01-02 ⚫投资建议 制造业需求复苏叠加碳达峰、碳中和背景，钢铁行业盈利逻辑得以重构，钢企在周期轮动中进一步受益，我们长期仍然看好钢铁板块。国防军工、航空航天产业高景气度叠加广阔的国产替代空间，高温合金、特种不锈钢、超高强度钢等产品占据绝对优势地位，建议重点关注中 报业绩兑现行业高景气度的特钢龙头：抚顺特钢；传统领域龙头+热门新兴业务标的更受市场青睐，建议重点关注不锈钢棒线材及云母提锂龙头：永兴材料；以及冷轧不锈钢领域的高成长性龙头标的：甬金股份。 ⚫风险提示 新冠疫情反复；经济下行加快；原材料价格大幅波动；地产用钢需求大幅下滑；钢材去库存化进程受阻。 正文目录 1本周行业动态.......................................................................................................................................................................5 1.1本周钢铁板块走势................................................................................................................................................................51.2各钢铁板块走势....................................................................................................................................................................5 2.1个股周涨跌幅........................................................................................................................................................................62.2公司公告................................................................................................................................................................................6 3.1钢厂盈利情况........................................................................................................................................................................63.1.1钢材价格..............................................................................................................................................................................63.1.2原材料供给..........................................................................................................................................................................73.1.3钢材利润测算......................................................................................................................................................................83.2钢材供应情况........................................................................................................................................................................83.2.1库存.....................................................................................................................................................................................83.2.2开工率.................................................................................................................................................................................93.2.3产量...................................................................................................................................................................................10风险提示：................................................................................................................................................................................11 图表目录 图表1本周钢铁板块涨跌幅为-1.00百分点（%）.......................................................................................................................5图表2本周普钢板块指数上涨、特材板块指数下跌（%）.......................................................................................................5图表3本周涨幅前五名（%）........................................................................................................................................................6图表4本周跌幅前五名（%）.......................................................................................................................................................6图表5公司公告概览......................................................................................................................................................................6图表6MYSPIC普钢指数（点）......................................................................................................................................................7图表7螺纹钢期现价格（元/吨）.................................................................................................................................................7图表8板材价格（元/吨）....................................................................................................