光伏专题研究系列二：品牌、渠道、成本构筑行业核心壁垒，组件一体化持续推进

10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% 000300.SH 857352.SL 投资要点      请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 一、组件是光伏系统中的重要环节，需求随光伏装机高增4 1.光伏组件是太阳能发电系统中的重要组成部分4 2.组件投资强度小、建设周期短，产能属性弱5 3.光伏行业快速发展，组件需求也随之保持高速增长6 二、品牌、渠道、成本管控能力为三大核心壁垒7 1.组件使用期长，客户重视品牌背书7 2.海外市场需求爆发，提前布局可享有渠道溢价8 3.受原材料价格波动影响大，成本管控能力要求高9 三、大尺寸、叠片、双面助力降本增效，一体化持续推进11 1.大尺寸硅片可有效摊薄单瓦非硅成本，硅片大尺寸趋势不可逆11 2.高效封装技术百花齐放，助力组件降本增效11 3.平抑产业链价格波动，一体化降本持续13 四、投资建议15 五、风险提示16 ...............................................................................................................................................4 ...................................................................................................................................................4 ........................................................................................................................................5 ......................................................................................6 ..........................................................................................................................6 .........................................................................................................7 ................................................................................................................................8 ...........................................................................................................8 ........................................................................................................................................9 ................................................................................................9 .............................................................................................................................................9 ......................................................................................................................10 ...........................................................................................................................................10 ................................................................................................................................10 .........................................................................................................................10 ....................................................................................................................................11 ............................................................................................................................12 ....................................................................................................................................12 ................................................................................................................................13 ................................................................................................................................13 .........................................................................................................14 ........................................................................................14 .................................................................................................................................6 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 硅料 硅片 电池片 组件 25 20 15 10 5 0 硅料 硅片 电池片 组件 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 100% 100 有融资性价值无融资性价值&没听说 %100% 79% 79% 82% 82% 86% 93% 96% 21% 21% 18% 18% 14% 7% 800 730 700 600 508 500 461 400369 322 300 268 239 200 181 86 116 144 96 172 117 100 0 20192020202120222023E2024E2025E 国外光伏新增全球光伏新增 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 印度 美国 欧洲 澳洲 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20182019 2020 2021 2022 天合光能隆基绿能晶澳科技晶科能源 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.7%2.6%3.8% 5.2% 7.1% 8.4% 61.2% 9.0% 电池片铝边框EVA玻璃背板焊带接线盒其他 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2020/1/23 2021/1/23 2022/1/23 2023/1/23 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 3.2mm镀膜 2.0mm镀膜 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E 156.75mm158.75mm160-166mm182mm210mm 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E 全片半片叠瓦 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E 单面组件双面组件 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 隆基绿能 晶澳科技 天合光能 晶科能源 硅片电池 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 晶澳科技 晶科能源 天合光能 东方日升 隆基绿能 协鑫集成