聚烯烃日报：汇率贬值持续，进口成本抬升支撑聚烯烃

策略摘要 研究院化工组 人民币汇率贬值至7.3关口，仍然有继续贬值的趋势存在，对于进口成本有抬升，支撑聚烯烃，基差也在修复中，支持盘面走强。受大型装置停车影响，PP开工率持续高位回落，受PDH制PP持续亏损影响，PP拉丝开工跌至较低水平，如近期有金能石化45万吨PDH装置，神华榆林30万吨煤制PP装置，山东京博40万吨油头装置等停车。库存总量整体压力不大，基本供需平衡，上游石化库与下游库存均维持低位，下游工厂生产订单并未明显好转。暂观望。 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存63万吨，相比前一日减少1万吨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差在+10元/吨，PP华东基差在+300元/吨；基差修复，恢复走强，盘面上涨意愿更强。 生产利润及国内开工方面，上游成本小幅走低，原油制LL、油制PP生产利润小幅收窄。丙烷价格小幅回落，PDH制PP依然亏损，聚烯烃估值不高。 PE开工率维持中等水平，标品开工率呈现下降趋势，非标开工率有所上升。总PP开工率继续高位回落，PP拉丝的开工率处于低位。 进出口方面，人民币持续贬值，聚烯烃进口成本提升，PE进口窗口依然关闭，PP则维持盈亏平衡线。 ■策略 （1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化，人民币贬值风险。 目录 策略摘要..............................................................................................................................................................................................1聚烯烃日度表格..................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构..................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率..................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比..............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润............................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润............................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃库存........................................................................................................................................................................................12 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%..............................................