聚烯烃日报：终端需求改观不大，聚烯烃震荡向下

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 线性期货盘中涨跌频繁，石化价格多数平稳，市场交投气氛疲软，商家部分让利促成交，但个别偏紧货源价格略高。聚烯烃检修量级有所增加而开工偏低，但下游订单及原料库存天数仍维持低位，下游对聚烯烃采购的积极性未被带动，中游环节去库速率偏慢，基差偏弱；进口窗口对聚烯烃价格有限制，宏观政策预期交易氛围一旦褪去，PP或面临估值修复压力。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存66.5万吨，相比昨日+4万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在-20元/吨，PP华东基差在-30元/吨，基差稳定。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 生产利润及国内开工方面，LL油头法生产利润稳定，油制PP生产利润亏损，PDH制PP利润维持高位震荡。 总PE开工率维持低位，标品LL开工尚可，主要是HD及LD开工偏低。而总PP开工率已上一个台阶，标品PP拉丝开工已恢复，PP注塑开工偏高，PP共聚开工区间盘整。 进出口方面，PP和PE进口窗口均已关闭，未来进口窗口限制反弹空间。 ■策略 （1）单边：塑料观望，PP逢高做空套保。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化，人民币贬值风险。 目录 策略摘要..............................................................................................................................................................................................1聚烯烃日度表格..................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构..................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率..................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比..............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润............................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润............................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃库存........................................................................................................................................................................................12 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................