2023年6月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销售疲弱，房企债券融资继续净流出

作者：张悦 ——2023年6月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 摘要 商品房量价：6月份国内30大中城市商品房成交面积为1239.82万m2，环比下降6.4%，同比下降33.00%，与过去10年均值水平相比下降34.58%；6月份全国商品房销售面积为13075万m2，显著低于去年同期的18185万m2。百城新建住宅平均价格环比下跌0.01%，同比下跌扩大至0.16%，百城新建住宅价格趋于稳定。 相关研究报告： 1.《商品房需求转弱，行业投资继续下降——2023年5月房地 产行 业观 察与债 市运行 动态》，2023.06.20 新开工面积：6月全国房屋新开工面积为10157万m2，同比下降31.35%，降幅较2022年全年36.57%的跌幅收窄。与历史数据相比，新开工面积仍处低位，但较上月小幅回升。 政策：1年期LPR为3.55%，5年期以上LPR为4.20%，均比上月下降10BP；央行货币政策委员会2023年第二季度例会，强调促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，推动建立房地产业发展新模式；扎实做好保交楼、保民生、保稳定各项工作，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。地方层面，多个城市逐步放松限购，通过上调贷款额度、降低首付比例、放宽贷款和提取条件等措施促进住房公积金购房，通过发放购房补贴促进改善性需求。 2.《商品房销售复苏放缓，各线城市分化加剧——2023年4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.05.22 3.《商品房销售明显复苏，境内债发行持续回温——2023年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.04.23 重点房企：6月份TOP100房企实现销售操盘金额5267.4亿元，环比增加8.5%，同比降低28.1%；近期数家A股上市房企为其各个子公司提供融资担保。 4.《商品房销售有所复苏，债券发行继续回温——2023年2月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.03.20 债券发行与到期：6月份房地产行业共发行债券419.36亿元，偿还债券805.04亿元，房地产行业通过债券市场净融资额为-385.69亿元。 信用事件与级别调整：6月份新增2只债券违约，5只债券展期。有1家房地产企业信用级别被下调。 总结与展望：6月楼市延续降温，商品房销售疲弱，房地产投资处于低位运行。债券市场方面，净融资继续为负，行业利差延续小幅上行。在当前房地产行业疲弱，总需求不足背景下，下半年房地产走势和市场各方信心提振如何，还需进一步观察地产政策实施的力度、节奏和居民收入预期好转情况。同时，防范化解风险仍然是房地产行业的重要任务。 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings,the transaction area of commercial housing in 30large and medium-sized cities in China was 1239.82 million m2inJune,down6.4% month on month, down 33.00% yearon year, down 34.58% compared with the average level of the past 10 years; the sales area of commercial housing in Junewas 13075 million m2, significantly lower than the 18185 million m2in the same period last year.The average price of newhousing in 100 cities fell 0.01% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 0.16%. And the price of newhousing in 100 cities stabilized. In terms of real estate started,the new housing construction area was 10157 million m2,down 31.35% year on year,narrower than the decline of 36.57% for the whole year in 2022. Compared with historical data, new construction area isstill low, but picked up slightly from last month. In terms of policies,the one-year LPR is 3.55%, and the LPR over 5 years is 4.20%, both 10BP lower than last month; themonetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank in the second quarter of 2023 will promote the steady and healthydevelopment of the real estate market, promote the establishment of a new development model of the real estate industry;ensure the building, people's livelihood and stability, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estatemarket. At the local level, many cities have gradually relaxed restrictions on purchase restrictions, promoting housingprovident fund purchases by increasing loan quotas, reducing the down payment ratio, relaxing loans and withdrawalconditions, and promoting improved demand through housing subsidies. In terms of key real estate companies,TOP100 sales volume reached 5267.4 billion yuaninJune, up 8.5% from theprevious month and down 28.1% from the previous year; recently, several a-share listed real estate enterprises providedfinancing guarantee for their subsidiaries. In terms of bond issuance and maturity,,the real estate industry issued a total of 419.36 billion yuan of bonds, repaying805.04 billion yuan of bondsin June.The net financing amount of the real estate industry through the bond marketwas-385.69 billion yuan. In terms of credit events and credit rating adjustment,2 new bonds defaulted in June, and 5 bonds were rolled over.One real estate company has been downgraded. Looking ahead,The housing market continued to cool in June, commercial housing sales were weak and real estateinvestment was low. In the bond market, net financing continued to be negative, and industry spreads continued to riseslightly. In the context of the current weak real estate industry and the lack of aggregate demand, the real estate trend inthesecond half of the year, we need to further observe the intensity and rhythm of the implementation of real estate policiesand the improvement of residents' income expectations. At the same time, preventing and defusing risks is still an importanttask in the real estate industry. 目录 一、行业运行动态..........................................................................................................................................................2（一）商品房量价......................................................................................................................................................2（二）新开工面积......................................................................................................................................................5（三）房地产贷款......................................................................................................................................................6二、行业政策动态..........................................................................................................................................................6（一）中央政策动态................................................................