食品饮料行业周报：继续关注板块催化剂暨二季度业绩前瞻，休闲食品三剑客延续高增态势
2023年07月10日继续关注板块催化剂暨二季度业绩前瞻，休闲食品三剑客延续高增态势—食品饮料行业周报推荐(维持)投资要点分析师：孙山山S1050521110005sunss@cfsc.com.cn分析师：何宇航S1050522090002heyh1@cfsc.com.cn行业相对表现表现1M3M12M食品饮料(申万)-0.3-11.3-16.3沪深300-0.3-7.2-13.6市场表现资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究相关研究1、《食品饮料行业周报：上半年追赶进度，下半年动销加速》2023-07-012、《食品饮料行业周报：端午动销符合预期，板块蓄势下半年》2023-06-263、《食品饮料行业周报：看好白酒迎反弹，关注端午动销反馈》2023-06-18▌一周新闻速递行业新闻：1）6月全国白酒价格指数上涨。2）亳州：2023白酒营收目标超220亿。公司新闻：1）贵州茅台：首届茅台MBD设计大赛启动。2）五粮液：五粮液持股商业银行计划上市。3）泸州老窖：泸发控股入股泸州老窖集团。▌投资观点当前我们仍维持之前子板块顺序：白酒>啤酒>休闲食品=软饮料>速冻食品>调味品>乳制品。白酒板块：根据本周白酒渠道调研反馈，酒企多数按照进度推进回款，动销端仍处于弱复苏阶段，预计旺季来临前整体仍以去库存挺批价为主。从二季度预期来看，白酒板块终端婚喜宴消费回补较好，但上半年在渠道端压力较明显，半年报预计延续一季度分化表现，高端酒确定性仍强，地产酒凭借基地市场具有较稳定的业绩表现，而次高端酒企预计承压。下半年仍需观察中秋国庆双节动销及商务场景恢复，继续重点推荐2+4+3产品矩阵，即泸州老窖+五粮液+次高端四杰+老白干酒+金种子酒+今世缘，关注洋河股份和古井贡酒。大众品板块：二季度已过，整体来看消费端特别是餐饮端消费处于弱复苏阶段，主要原材料如大豆、棕榈油以及包材等保持下降趋势。建议关注二季度有边际改善以及季报表现良好的个股，现阶段重点推荐3+3+3+3产品矩阵，即休闲食品三剑客（盐津铺子+甘源食品+劲仔食品）+啤酒三杰（重庆啤酒+青岛啤酒+燕京啤酒）+调味品三杰（中炬高新+日辰股份+晨光生物）+预期差三杰（涪陵榨菜+佳禾食品+道道全）。维持食品饮料行业“推荐”投资评级。▌风险提示疫情波动风险；宏观经济波动风险；推荐公司业绩不及预期的风险；行业竞争风险；食品安全风险；行业政策变动风险；消费税或生产风险；原材料价格波动风险等。证券研究报告行业研究 证券研究报告请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2诚信、专业、稳健、高效重点关注公司及盈利预测公司代码名称2023/7/7股价EPSPE投资评级2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E600519.SH贵州茅台1690.0358.2667.6577.7529.0124.9821.74买入000858.SZ五粮液163.668.059.3210.6620.3317.5615.35买入000568.SZ泸州老窖211.358.6610.5712.7324.4120.0016.60买入600809.SH山西汾酒198.108.6310.6913.0522.9518.5315.18买入002304.SZ洋河股份130.287.488.9710.5917.4214.5212.30买入000799.SZ酒鬼酒91.864.014.915.9522.9118.7115.44买入600702.SH舍得酒业125.746.458.049.8719.4915.6412.74买入600779.SH水井坊59.902.923.413.9220.5117.5715.28买入000596.SZ古井贡酒247.007.759.6711.9531.8725.5420.67买入603369.SH今世缘52.192.643.344.1719.7715.6312.52买入603589.SH口子窖50.453.163.724.3315.9713.5611.65买入603198.SH迎驾贡酒60.912.763.454.2322.0717.6614.40买入600199.SH金种子酒23.190.040.190.39579.75122.0559.46买入603919.SH金徽酒23.270.791.031.3029.4622.5917.90买入600197.SH伊力特25.680.841.081.3430.5723.7819.16买入600559.SH老白干酒24.190.831.111.4229.1421.7917.04买入603288.SH海天味业45.791.471.701.9531.1526.9423.48买入603027.SH千禾味业20.560.480.610.7742.8333.7026.70买入603317.SH天味食品14.570.410.530.6835.5427.4921.43买入600872.SH中炬高新37.041.021.211.4136.3130.6126.27买入002507.SZ涪陵榨菜17.781.121.311.5215.8813.5711.70买入600305.SH恒顺醋业10.830.190.240.3057.0045.1336.10买入603755.SH日辰股份30.630.931.241.6532.9424.7018.56买入603170.SH宝立食品20.610.680.861.0830.3123.9719.08买入300999.SZ金龙鱼40.020.981.281.6640.8431.2724.11买入300908.SZ仲景食品44.561.661.912.1726.8423.3320.53买入600298.SH安琪酵母35.741.682.042.3921.2717.5214.95买入300138.SZ晨光生物17.031.021.271.5816.7013.4110.78买入300755.SZ华致酒行22.721.702.363.1113.369.637.31买入605499.SH东鹏饮料181.604.675.977.4138.8930.4224.51买入603711.SH香飘飘18.590.680.830.9827.3422.4018.97买入605337.SH李子园18.231.021.221.4617.8714.9412.49买入600132.SH重庆啤酒86.133.193.844.5627.0022.4318.89买入600600.SH青岛啤酒100.343.323.884.4430.2225.8622.60买入603345.SH安井食品149.775.166.758.4529.0322.1917.72买入603517.SH绝味食品33.821.361.782.3124.8719.0014.64买入603057.SH紫燕食品24.250.981.241.5524.7419.5615.65买入 证券研究报告请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3诚信、专业、稳健、高效002847.SZ盐津铺子80.852.353.164.1434.4025.5919.53买入603719.SH良品铺子24.261.011.201.3824.0220.2217.58买入002991.SZ甘源食品78.812.593.494.6130.4322.5817.10买入002557.SZ洽洽食品40.062.192.532.9018.2915.8313.81买入003000.SZ劲仔食品12.560.370.470.5833.9526.7221.66买入605338.SH巴比食品24.691.071.301.5723.0718.9915.73买入300973.SZ立高食品64.081.943.305.1333.0319.4212.49买入002216.SZ三全食品15.710.991.141.3015.8713.7812.08买入600882.SH妙可蓝多21.950.660.961.4233.2622.8615.46买入001215.SZ千味央厨66.031.702.252.9238.8429.3522.61买入资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 证券研究报告请阅读最后一页重要免责声明4诚信、专业、稳健、高效正文目录1、一周新闻速递............................................................................61.1、行业新闻.........................................................................61.2、公司新闻.........................................................................62、本周重点公司反馈.......................................................................82.1、本周行业涨跌幅...................................................................82.2、公司公告.........................................................................82.3、本周公司涨跌幅...................................................................112.4、食品饮料行业核心数据趋势一览.....................................................132.5、重点公司信息反馈.................................................................173、投资观点...............................................................................204、风险提示...............................................................................22图表目录图表1：本周行业涨跌幅一览(%)...........................................................8图表2：本周食品饮料重点上市公司公告....................................................8图表3：食品饮料重点公司一周涨跌幅一览..................................................11图表4：2022年白酒产量671.20万吨，同-6.2%.............................................13图表5：2022年白酒行业营收6626亿元，同+9.64%..........................................13图表6：调味品行业市场规模从2014年2595亿增至2020年3950亿，6年CAGR为7%.............13图表7：百强调味品企业收入从2013年700亿增至2020年1627亿，7年CAGR为13%.............13图表8：全国大豆市场价（元/吨）.........................................................14图表9：白砂糖现货价（元/吨）...........................................................14图表10：国内PET切片现货价(纤维级):国内（元/吨）.
