焦煤焦炭周报：焦炭提涨预期支撑盘面升水，警惕政策预期交易回落

− Z0012648F03099747 618 2023 焦煤价格 焦煤周涨跌幅 周持仓量变动(手） 周成交量变动(手） 焦炭价格 焦炭周涨跌幅 周持仓量变动(手） 周成交量变动(手） 1300.0 6.30% 1 2 2039.5 8.14% 0 0 1429.5 8.30% -4 1 2202.5 3.50% 0 5 1440.0 6.27% 0 17 2242.0 8.49% 0 1 1400.5 8.65% -8773 129168 2180.0 4.98% -8312 -8513 1439.5 7.83% 19 95 2155.5 5.35% -2 50 1407.0 8.77% 0 1 2141.5 5.00% 0 0 1409.5 7.27% -7 10 2166.0 8.08% 0 2 1364.0 7.44% -4959 12292 2114.0 4.63% -4959 -1721 1365.0 7.10% -4 16 2086.5 4.12% -4 0 1402.0 6.37% 0 -1 2121.0 5.42% 0 -7 1380.0 6.07% 0 1 2084.5 4.20% 0 0 1328.0 7.53% 191 288 2080.0 5.56% 191 100 32 -27 5 螺纹钢高炉利润 13 -288 -276 澳煤进口利润 28 24 52 钢厂盈利率（%） 5 100 105 运费价格：查干 哈达堆场→甘其 -41 68 27 独立焦企吨焦平均利润 10 175 185 双焦汽运价格： 孝义→日照港 -45 -37 -82 盘面09焦化利润 -5 170 165 双焦汽运价格： 介休→丰南区 72 -72 0 捣固焦理论焦化利润 1 -4 1729 1688 1/3焦煤 -29 184 155 顶装焦理论焦化利润 0 1775 1775 肥煤 0 2090 2090 准一级干熄焦 14 1650 1664 瘦煤 0 1874 1874 准一级湿熄焦 4 1415 1419 气煤 0 1847 1847 冶金焦：二级 -6 1757 1751 主焦煤：低硫 0 1941 1941 冶金焦：一级 10 1530 1540 沙河驿蒙5 50 1880 1930 日照港准一 0 1390 1390 山西吕梁中硫 10 56 66 焦炭09-01 17 20 37 焦煤09-01 -50 -20 -70 焦炭基差 2 -11 22 -90 焦煤基差 焦炭 焦煤 1 wind 2   74.4% 6.20LPR  Mysteel 840  1000 2+2+4 3     -130  0 20 -130 10002+2+43   74.4% 6.20LPR       焦煤 2309 2309 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 -200.00 -400.00 -600.00 1100 基差（右轴）山西吕梁中硫仓单 蒙5仓单焦煤2309 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 2009210922092309 2023-03-272023-04-272023-05-27 09-01 1500 1450 2023-06-162023-06-09 200 150 201820192020202120222023 1400 100 1350 50 1300 0 1250 -50 1200 060708091011120102030405 -100 1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/19 / / 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 中硫主焦焦煤/动力煤 瘦煤/动力煤 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.8 / 5500k 140 双焦：汽车运输：价格：介休→丰南区（日）双焦：汽车运输：价格：介休→日照港（日）双焦：汽车运输：价格：孝义→日照港（日）双焦：汽车运输：价格：孝义→古冶区（日） 炼焦煤：蒙古产：运费价格：查干哈达堆场→甘其毛都口岸（日） 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2023-05-08 2023-05-09 2023-05-10 2023-05-11 2023-05-12 2023-05-13 2023-05-14 2023-05-15 2023-05-16 2023-05-17 2023-05-18 2023-05-19 2023-05-20 2023-05-21 2023-05-22 2023-05-23 2023-05-24 2023-05-25 2023-05-26 2023-05-27 2023-05-28 2023-05-29 2023-05-30 2023-05-31 2023-06-01 2023-06-02 2023-06-03 2023-06-04 2023-06-05 2023-06-06 2023-06-07 2023-06-08 2023-06-09 2023-06-10 2023-06-11 2023-06-12 2023-06-13 2023-06-14 2023-06-15 2023-06-16 0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 20192020202120222023 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 / 2000.00 1800.00 1600.00 1400.00 1200.00 1000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 2023-06-162023-06-09 2018201920202021 2022 2023 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 110 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 110 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 201820192020202120222023 201820192020202120222023 201820192020202120222023 1300 900800 2500 1200 700 2000 1100 600500 1500 1000 400 1000 900 300 800 200 500 700 100 0 1/ 12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 01 /12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 600 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 26 21 16 11 6 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 / 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Wind 日期 炼焦精煤产量 净进口量 消费量 供需缺口 2023.1-4 16472 3109 19345 236 2022.1-4 16302 1637 18277 -338 焦炭 2309 2309 3000.00 2800.00 2600.00 2400.00 2200.00 2000.00 1800.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 (50.00) (100.00) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 基差（右轴）日照港仓单焦炭2309 -200 9/1610/1611/1612/161/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/16 19092009210922092309 09-01 2023-06-162023-06-09201820192020202120222023 2300 2250 2200 2150 2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 1800 060708091011120102030405 400 1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/19 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 / 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 / 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 400 200 0 -200 -400 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 / 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 / 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 独立焦企焦炭日产量（吨/天）独立焦企产能利用率（%） 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量（吨/天）钢厂焦化厂产能利用率（%） 20 19 202 0 2 021 202 2 2023 50 96 49 9492 48 90 47 88 46 8684 45 82 44 80 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 高炉产能利用率（%）高炉铁水日均产量（万吨/天） 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 高炉开工率（%）唐山高炉检修减损量（万吨） 独