美国财政部1万亿美元的举债努力将令银行承受压力 _ Financial Times
USTreasury’s$1tnborrowingdrivesettoputbanksunderstrain ft.com/content/9bc73cea-e736-42f1-8a8f-6fc85945b641 KateDuguid20236o7日 USTreasury’s$1tnborrowingdrivesettoputbanksunderstrain 美国财政部1万亿美元的举债努力将令银行承受压力 Analystsfearscaleofnewissuancefollowingdebtceilingfightwillpushupyieldsandsuckcashoutofdeposits分析师担心，债óP限之争后的ð债发行规模，将è高收益率，并Ð`款中吸走现金 ItisestimatedthatWashingtonwillneedtoborrow$1.1tninshort-datedTreasurybillsbytheendof2023©NathanHoward/Bloomberg据估计，到2023á，_盛顿将需要借入1.1万ÿ美元的短期国债 A$1tnUSgovernmentborrowingspreeissettoincreasethestrainonthecountry9sbankingsystemasWashingtonreturnstothemarketsintheaftermathofthedebtceilingfight,tradersandanalystssay. 交易员和分析师表示，随着国家府在债óP限之争结束后Þ返`场，1万ÿ美元的国家府借贷狂潮势必ò大国家银行体系的压力2 Followingtheresolutionofthatdispute—whichhadpreviouslypreventedtheUSfromincreasingitsborrowing—theTreasurydepartmentwillseektorebuilditscashbalance,whichlastweekhititslowestlevelsince2017. 在à一争端得到解决(m前à一争端阻k了美国增ò借款)后，美国¯ 部将寻求Þ建w现金余额2P周，美国的现金余额降ó2017以来的ĀP水2 JPMorganhasestimatedthatWashingtonwillneedtoborrow$1.1tninshort-datedTreasurybillsbytheendof2023,with$850bninnetbillissuanceoverthenextfourmonths. 摩根大通(JPMorgan)估计，到2023á，美国府将需要借入1.1万ÿ美元短期国债，未来4个o将净发行8500ÿ美元国债2 Aprincipalconcernvoicedbyanalystswasthatthesheervolumeofnewissuancewouldpushupyieldsongovernmentdebt,suckingcashoutofbankdeposits. 分析师们表达的一个要担忧是，ð债发行量之大，将è高府债券的收益率，Ð而吸走银行`款中的现金2 <Everyoneknowsthefloodiscoming,=saidGennadiyGoldberg,astrategistatTDSecurities.<Yieldswillmovehigherbecauseofthisflood.Treasurybillswillcheapenfurther.Andthatwillputpressureonbanks.= 道明证券(TDSecurities)策略师根纳ï•戈德堡(GennadiyGoldberg)表示:<所p人都知道洪水即将来临2=2<由于à场洪水，产量将P升2国ß券将进一n贬值2à将给银行带来压力2= HesaidhewasexpectingthebiggestincreaseinTreasurybillissuanceinhistory,apartfromduringcrisessuchasthe2008financialmeltdownandthepandemicin2020.Analystssaidthebillswouldhavematuritiesrangingfromafewdaystoayear. 他表示，除了2008金融危机和2020疫情爆发等危机期间，他预计美国国债发行量将出现历史Ā大增幅2分析师表示，à些债券的到期日将Ð几y到一O等2 TheTreasurydepartmentofferedguidanceonWednesday,sayingitaimstoreturnitscashbalancestonormallevelsbySeptember. JPMorgansaidtheannouncementwasroughlyinlinewithitsoverallestimates.TheTreasuryalsosaiditwould<carefullymonitormarketconditionsandadjustitsissuanceplansasappropriate=. 美国¯部周O提供了指引，称w目标是在9o前将现金余额恢复到l常水2摩根大通表示，à一消息Pw总体预期大ô相符2美国¯ 部ß表示，将<认真监ç`场状况，并酌情调整发行计划=2 Yieldshadalreadybeguntoriseinanticipationoftheincreasedsupply,addedGregoryPeters,co-chiefinvestmentofficerofPGIMFixedIncome. PGIM固定收益公司联席首席投资官GregoryPeters补充说，由于预期供à会增ò，债券收益率已经开始P升2 ThatshiftincreasespressureonUSbankdeposits,whichhavealreadyfallenthisyearastheriseininterestratesandthefailureofregionallendershavesentcustomersseekinghigher-yieldingalternatives. à种转变ò大了美国银行`款的压力2今以来，随着利率P升和地区性银行破产，客户开始寻~收益率更高的ÿ代品，美国银行`款已p所Q降2 Furtherdepositflightandtheriseinyieldscouldinturnpushbankstoofferhigherinterestratesonsavingsaccounts,whichcouldbeparticularlycostlyforsmallerlenders. `款进一n外逃和收益率P升，可能进而è动银行提高储蓄¯户利率，à可能对规模较小的银行造r尤w高昂的r本2 <Theriseinyieldscouldforcebankstoraisetheirdepositrates,=Peterssaid. <收益率P升可能ð使银行提高`款利率,=彼得ï表示2 DougSpratley,headofthecashmanagementteamatTRowePrice,concurredthattheTreasury9sreturntoborrowing<couldexacerbatestressesthatwerealreadyonthebankingsystem=. 普信集团(TRowePrice)现金管理团队负°人道格•ï普拉特利(DougSpratley)也认~，美国¯部Þð举债<可能ò剧银行体系本已面临的压力=2 ThesupplyshockcomesastheFedisalreadywindingdownitsbondholdings,incontrastwiththerecentpast,whenitwasabigbuyerofgovernmentdebt. m次供à危机发生之×，美联储已开始逐n减持债券，PO久前的情况形r鲜明对比，当时美联储是府债券的大买家2 <We9rerunningasignificantbudgetdeficit.Westillhavequantitativetightening.IfwehaveafloodofT-billissuanceaswell,welikelyhaveturbulenceintheTreasurymarketinthemonthsaheadofus,=saidTorstenSlok,chiefeconomistatApolloGlobalManagement. <s们的预算赤_很大2s们Ï在量化紧缩2如果美国国债发行量也大幅增ò，未来几个o美国国债`场可能出现动荡,=阿波罗全球管理公司(ApolloGlobalManagement)首席经济学家托尔ï滕•ï洛克(TorstenSlok)表示2 Bankcustomershavealreadyheavilyshiftedtomoneymarketfundsthatinvestincorporateandsovereigndebtfollowingthebankfailuresthisspring. 在今春季银行破产后，银行客户已经大量转向投资于企业和权债ó的°_`场基金2 Thestockoffundsinmoneymarketaccountsreachedarecord $5.4tninMay—upfrom$4.8tnatthestartoftheyear—accordingtodatafromtheInvestmentCompanyInstitute,anindustrygroup. 行业组织美国投资公司`会(InvestmentCompanyInstitute)的数据显示，今5o，°_`场¯户中的基金`量达到创纪录的5.4万ÿ美元，高于初的4.8万ÿ美元2 ButwhilemoneymarketfundsaretypicallybigpurchasersofTreasurybills,theyareunlikelytobuyupthewholesupply,analystssaid. 但分析师表示，尽管°_`场基金通常是美国国债的大买家，但它们Oz可能买光所pà些国债2 Thisislargelybecausemoneymarketfundsalreadyreceiveagenerousrisk-freereturn—atpresentanannualised5.05percent —onovernightfundsleftwiththeFed.Thisisonlyslightlybelowthe 5.2percentavailableonthecomparableTreasuryrate,whichcarriesmorerisk. à在很大程度P是因~°_`场基金已经Ð留给美联储的隔夜资金中获得了丰厚的无风险回报(目前的化回报率~5.05%)2à仅略P于美国国债可比利率的5.2%，后者担的风险更大2 Atpresent,roughly$2.2tnanightisbeingputintotheFed9sovernightreverserepurchaseagreementfacility(RRP),muchofitfrommoneymarketfunds. 目前，每晚约p2.2万ÿ美元被投入美联储的隔夜反向Ö买回`议工x (rRP)，w中大部分来自°_`场基金2 Recommended è荐 USeconomy美国经济 WhatadebtceilingdealmeansfortheUSeconomy债óP限`议对美国经济意味着Ā么 Thatcashcouldberedeployedt
