儿童与埃塞俄比亚的财政空间（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10452 ChildrenandtheFiscalSpaceinEthiopia AlemayehuA.AmbelGetachewYirgaBeleteOliverFiala DevelopmentEconomicsDevelopmentDataGroupMay2023 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10452 Abstract ThisstudyinvestigatestheeffectsofpublictransfersandtaxesonthewellbeingofchildreninEthiopia.ItappliestheCommitmenttoEquityforChildrenmethodologytoexaminetheburdensoftaxationandthebenefitsfromgovernmenttransfersandspending,andtheirdifferentialwellbeingimpactsonchildren.Thestudyintegratesdatafromthe2018/19EthiopiaSocioeconomicSurvey,whichalsocollecteddataontaxesandtransfers,withadministra-tivedata.Measuringitsdistributionbychildmonetaryandmultidimensionalwellbeing,thestudyfinds,onaverage,aprogressive,poverty-reducingandequalizingfiscalsystem.However,thereareimportantdifferencesinthedistributionofsomeofitselements.Indirecttaxes,comprisingofval-ue-addedandexcisetaxes,areregressive.Similarly,primary educationspending,thelargestofin-kindtransfers,isonlyprogressiveinurbanareas.Onpovertyandinequality,thefiscalsystemreducedthemonetarychildpovertyheadcountby21percentandthepovertygapby33percent.Theeffectisstrongerforgirlsandchildreninruralareasthanforboysandchildreninurbanareas,thereforereducinginequalitiesinpovertyrates.However,thisisonlythecasewhenin-kindtransfersforeducationandhealthareconsidered.Withouttheinclusionofin-kindtransfers,thestudyfindsthatthefiscalsystemisnotwellcalibratedtoreducepoverty.Thishighlightstheessentialroleofpublicservices,notonlyindeliveringfundamentalchildrights,butalsoinreducingpovertyamongchildren. ThispaperisaproductoftheDevelopmentDataGroup,DevelopmentEconomics.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedataambel@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam ChildrenandtheFiscalSpaceinEthiopia* AlemayehuA.Ambel†GetachewYirgaBelete‡OliverFiala§ KeyWords:ChildPoverty;FiscalIncidence;CommitmenttoEquityforChildren;Ethiopia JELCodes:H22,I32,J13 *ThestudyissupportedbytheGlobalTaxProgram.WethankJoseAntonioCuestaLeivaandparticipantsofconferencesheldinAddisAbaba,LuxemburgandOxfordfortheircommentsonanearlierversionofthepaper.WealsothankOlutolaJordanforherhelpinediting.Anyremainingerrorsareourown. †LivingStandardsMeasurementStudy(LSMS),DevelopmentDataGroup,WorldBank ‡‡DepartmentofEconomics,BahirDarUniversity §GlobalPolicy,Advocacy&ResearchDepartment,SavetheChildrenUK . 1.Introduction Taxes,governmentspending,andpublictransfersplayacrucialroleinadvancingchildrightsandwelfareandinreducingpovertyandinequality.Whilethereisincreasingempiricalevidenceofthedistributionaleffectsofpublicfinanceinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,dataandinsightsontheimpactsonchildrenareverylimited. However,itisessentialtounderstandthespecificimpactsofpublicfinancedecisionsonchildrenbecausechildrenhavedifferentdemandsandconsumptionpatternscomparedtoadults,hencefiscalinterventionsmayimpactthemdifferently.Forexample,childrencouldbedisproportionatelyaffectediftaxesaddtothecostofgoodsandservicesparticularlyrelevantforchildren.Thisisbesidestheindirecteffectsofconsumptiontaxes,suchasvalue-addedtaxes(VAT),andexcisesthroughtheirparents.Directincometaxespaidbyadultscouldalsohaveindirecteffectsonchildren’swelfare.Directpublictransferscouldhavebothdirectandindirecteffectsonchildren’swellbeing.Similarly,in-kindpublictransfers(spendingonhealthandeducation)affectchildren’sschoolenrollmentandaccesstobasichealthservices.Moreover,household-levelanalysesoftendonotprovideafullpictureofthedistributionaleffectoffiscalpolicy,andchildrenmayfarepoorlyinintrahouseholdallocation(Dunbaretal.2013).Recentevidencealsosuggeststhatmanypoorindividualsdonotnecessarilyliveinpoorhouseholds(Brown,Ravallion,andVandeWalle2017;Belete2021). Childrenexperiencepovertydifferentlyfromadults,astheirexperienceofpovertyisdeterminedbymaterialdeprivationsintherealizationofchildrights(e.g.,health,education)ratherthanfinancialmeans(AlkireandSantos2013;Gordonetal.2003).Therefore,amultidimensionalassessmentofpovertyandwellbeing,inadditiontomonetarypoverty,wouldberequired.Thisalsoservestohighlighttheessentialrolepublicspendingonhealthandeducationcouldhaveonchildren’sschoolingandhealthaccess.Finally,acomprehensiveanalysisofthedistributionaleffectsofcurrentfiscalpo