西班牙：选定问题

January2023 SPAIN SELECTEDISSUES IMFCountryReportNo.23/34 ThisSelectedIssuespaperonSpainwaspreparedbyastaffteamoftheInternationalMonetaryFundasbackgrounddocumentationfortheperiodicconsultationwiththemembercountry.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember16,2022. Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom InternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201 E-mail:publications@imf.orgWeb:http://www.imf.orgPrice:$18.00perprintedcopy InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C. ©2023InternationalMonetaryFund December16,2022 SPAIN SELECTEDISSUES PreparedByNicolasArregui,AnaLariau,andYuShi. ApprovedBy EuropeanDepartment CONTENTS LABORPRODUCTIVITYDYNAMICSINSPAIN:AFIRM-LEVELPERSPECTIVE2 A.Introduction2 B.DataandEmpiricalStrategy4 C.Results6 D.RecentPoliciestoPromoteProductivityGrowth15 E.Conclusion16 ANNEXES I.DataCoverageandSampleSelection20 II.DefinitionofVariablesandSummaryStatistics21References18 LABORMARKETIMPLICATIONSOFGREENINVESTMENTSANDCARBONPRICINGINSPAIN22 A.GreenPoliciesinSpain22 B.TheLaborMarketImpactofGreenInvestmentsandCarbonPricing23 C.ConclusionsandPolicyRecommendations28 ANNEXES I.EstimationofOutputandEmploymentMultipliersUsingtheInput-OutputApproach_31 II.ResultsfortheAlternativeCarbonPricingShockScenario,NotTakingintoAccounttheRedistributionofRevenueProceeds34 References30 LABORPRODUCTIVITYDYNAMICSINSPAIN:AFIRM-LEVELPERSPECTIVE1 A.Introduction 1.Laborproductivityhasbeenalong-standingstructuralchallengeinSpain.Productivityperformancehasbeenweakacrossseveraldimensions:laborproductivitylevelsaresignificantlylowerthaninsomepeereconomies,itsgrowthratehasbeenlowandnotfavoredconvergence,anddifferencesinoutputperhourworkedacrossSpanishregionsisconsiderable(IMF,2018).Moreover,weaklaborproductivityperformancerelativetopeersholdsacrosssectors,suggestingthatcross-cuttingdriversarelikelytoplayamoresignificantrolethantheproductivestructureoftheeconomy. LaborProductivity (GDPinconst.2015pricesdividedbyhoursworked) 70 SpainGermanyFranceItaly EU LaborProductivityGrowthbySector1996-2021 (annualaveragegrowth;inpercent) PeerMedian 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 ESP Arts/Recreation Total4 2 0 -2 -4 Agriculture Pub. Adm/Health/… Industry(excl. const) Prof.Services Manufacturing RealEstate Construction 2000200320062009201220152018 2021 Financial Trade/Transp/Fo od/Accom Sources:Eurostat,HaverAnalytics,andIMFstaffcalculations. Info/Comm Note:peersincludeAT,BE,CZ,DE,FR,HR,IT,NL,PT,UK. LaborProductivityGrowth (annualgrowthrate,inpercent) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 EU2725thto75thSpainEU27average 20002003200620092012201520182021 Sources:Eurostat,HaverAnalyticsandIMFstaffcalculations. 2.IntheaftermathoftheGlobalFinancialCrisis(GFC),laborproductivityinSpainexhibitedacounter-cyclicalpatterndrivenbythelargereductioninemployment.Therelativelystrongproductivitygrowthfrom2009to2013wasmainlydrivenbydevelopmentsinthelabormarket.Therapiddeclineinworkinghoursresultedinafasterincreaseinthecapital-laborratio.Additionally,employmentdestructionhadabiastowardslessproductiveoccupation,implyinganincreaseintheaverageproductivityforthosewho remainedoccupied.Oncelabormarketconditionsnormalized,capitaldeepening2settledatalowercontributionlevel(negativein2014–19)tolaborproductivity,reflectingthelowerrateofcapitalaccumulationsincetheGFC.Theadoptionofmeasuresduringthepandemic,particularlywiththeroleplayedbythestrengthenedfurloughscheme(ERTE),resultedinbetterlabormarketdynamicsthaninpastcrises.Ontheflipside,laborproductivityperformedworseinSpainthaninothercountries. SpainLaborProductivityGrowthDecomposition (inpercent) CapitalDeepeningGrowth (inpercent) 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 LaborcompositioncontCapitaldeepeningcontTFPcont Total 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Hoursworked(denominator)Capitalservices(numerator)Total 19962000200420082012201619961999200220052008201120142017 Sources:KLEMsandIMFstaffcalculations.Sources:OECD,andIMFstaffcalculations. 3.Totalfactorproductivity(TFP)hasbeenconsistentlylowandlaggingpeersfordecades.AnumberoffactorshavebeenidentifiedascontributingtothesluggishTFPgrowthinSpain,includingthestructuralweaknessesinthelabormarket,suchasthehighshareoftemporaryworkersandthewideuseofsector-levelcollectivebargainingagreements(HospidoandMoreno-Galbis,2015),capitalmisallocationlinkingtofinancialfrictionsfromsize-dependentborrowingconstraints(Gopinathetal.2017;García-Santanaetal.2020),productmarketregulation(AndrewsandCingano,2014;BankofSpain,2015),size-relatedregulationsandpolicies(AlmuniaandLopezRodriguez,2018;IMFCountryReport,2018),andweakbusinessinnovation(OECD,2021).Spain,nonetheless,hasrecentlyputinplacereformsthatcouldhaveapositiveimpactonTFP.Forexample,substantialchangesintheregulationoftemporarycontractswereintroducedinDecember2021andearlyresultsareshowingadeclineintheshareoftemporaryworkers.Reformsalsoestablishedincentivesfortheprovisionoftrainingtoworkersandrevampedthevocationalandtrainingsystem.Furthermore,Spain’sRecovery,TransformationandResilienceP